Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

Suth Korea's plans to decapitate the North Korean leadership in a crisis is the most plausible route to a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Officials should stop making these threats so I can stop making these threads. 🧵

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1546399863386312704

For years, South Korean officials have suggested the ROK Army Missile Command can kill Kim Jong Un and other DPRK leaders before they can issue an order for the KPA to use nuclear weapons. This is called "decapitation."
38north.org/2013/02/jlewis…

This is the *military* plan that is most likely to succeed. I understand why the JCS recommends it as the best of some bad options. But it is also the option most likely to create uncontrollable escalation dynamics and start a nuclear war. Politicians should say "no thank you."

There are really two problems with this strategy. First, North Korea's plan is also the best of some bad options: Use nuclear weapons first to repel an invasion. The problem is, both of them plan to go first. But they can't both be right.

This is the literally the prisoner's dilemma, as well as the canonical statement of the problem in Schelling's Reciprocal Fear of Surprise Attack. No one wants to start a nuclear war, but you are so much better off going first than second.
rand.org/content/dam/ra…

Everything depends on going first. So both side will look for signals war is imminent to get the jump on the adversary. In a crisis, one or the other might think the other is about to attack when it isn't. I wrote a whole novel about it. #2020Commission.
amazon.com/Commission-Rep…

Now, there is a second problem -- although it's mostly a theoretical concern at the moment. North Korea is now deploying tactical nuclear weapons to frontline artillery units, not just the KPA Strategic Rocket Force.

https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1540031931173289990?s=20&t=Pt4IdO_n7EDg2nG7o4jAVw

What kind of "command and control" measures will North Korean adopt? When will units receive nuclear weapons? During peacetime or only in crisis? When are units authorized to use nuclear weapons? What security measures govern when they are able to use nuclear weapons?

A natural response to fear of decapitation or a surprise attack is to give frontline units access to nuclear weapons and to pre-delegate the authorization to use these nuclear weapons. That's what the US did in Europe in the 1950s.
nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB4…

Providing nuclear weapons to frontline units raises all kinds of questions about accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. Accidents happen. Humans make mistakes.
upi.com/Archives/1985/…

Would Kim Jong Un use nuclear weapons in response to a mistaken belief South Korea was planning to kill him? Would that fear drive him to empower frontline commanders to use nuclear weapons if he were killed? Is there risk of an accidental or unauthorized use by frontline units?

The answer to all these is either "I don't know" or "Probably not." But that raises another question: Would you bet your life on it? Would you bet the lives of all ~50 million people on the Korean Peninsula, and some considerable number of people in the United States, on it?