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Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
@chigrl
Jul 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Here it comes>>

Long Beach container backlog crosses red line as delays mount

Long Beach just crossed a red line. The number of import containers sitting on Long Beach terminals for nine days or more is now higher than it was on Oct. 28, 2021
freightwaves.com/news/long-beac…
👇
Port of Los Angeles Kicks Off Peak Season with Record June gcaptain.com/port-of-los-an…
Hate to tell you I told you so ..but....

#supplychains just took a year step bavk > Rail Congestion Threatens Nationwide Logjam, LA's Seroka Says gcaptain.com/rail-congestio…
CA truck driversare now at war with CA regarding the new owner/operator rules in California ...this is bad
In sum: 70,000 truck drivers refusing to move stuff, rail lines backed up and 9 days of waiting (so far) to offload at west coast ports.

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More from @chigrl

Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Feb 11
On CRE🧵 Image
CRE credit makes up more than 40% of some lenders’ loan books and the Fed is working with community and regional banks with concentrated exposures to commercial property. That includes coming up with a plan to work through expected losses, chairman Jerome Powell on 60 Minutes Image
An additional complicating factor for lenders in the US is the amount of CRE lending that was interest-only, at least for mortgages bundled into bonds Image
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Oct 8, 2022
While I am on a rant... let's talk about Venezuela

Latest headline last week:

US Looks to Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Enabling Chevron to Pump Oil
First Venezuela produces about 700K bbd ..down from 3.5M at the height. This is tragic. That said, most of VZ oil is now going to China to pay down debts. Image
US proposal is that by lifting some sanctions, $CVE can begin producing again in the country. After years of neglect and political turmoil,you have to ask yourself if $CVE is willing to spend billions there to upgrade facilities when the political situation is in flux
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Sep 3, 2022
VERY short thread on UK energy market & why retail customer prices are exploding so much more than EU

How the UK electricity market is set up, is the major problem (it is different than the EU). It's a broken market model. 1/4
UK retail consumers get gas and electricity from suppliers who buy energy in the wholesale market and then sell it to the public. The idea was that you could choose your supplier and it was easy to switch between them if you could find a better deal.
But, the problem is that most of these retail energy providers are not actual energy producers, but rather intermediaries. When wholesale costs ballooned over 250%, over half of these smaller companies went bankrupt. This forced millions onto the books of larger companies.
Read 5 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Aug 2, 2022
Munich Municipal Law Library ..additions welcome for the most beautiful libraries on the planet Image
Trinity Library, Dublin, Ireland Image
Peles Castle, Romania Image
Read 4 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Jun 28, 2022
Recession fears have been the overriding factor last couple of months. We have the Fed hiking into an already slowing economy. GDP NowCast is forecasting 0% growth for Q2 and we are already seeing signs of softness in the labor and housing markets. 1/n
As many times as Powell says that he believes we can have a soft landing, the broader markets obviously do not believe him…..
As a side note, we are seeing a bounce here end of the month with re-balance. Roughly $100B of US equities must be net purchased over the last five trading days of the month. with ~$59B of expected inflows and this into a backdrop of negative dealer gamma
Read 9 tweets
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Profile picture
Mar 23, 2022
Although, I think less Russian barrels will be taken off the market (if we include black/gray markets) than most think. We are still in a bit of a pickle. 1/4
Canada said they could supply the US w/ 200K bpd additionally. BUT they also said they do not want to increase production because that would not align with their climate goals. Also, they do not have much pipeline capacity to either coast to ship globally.
Mexico could replace some barrels but they are set to ban exports. They could decide to delay the ban.

Venezuela is sanctioned, they also produce less than 1M BPD …so even if they were not sanctioned they literally just do not have the volumes
Read 4 tweets

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