Thread by @adamvoge

Arsenal are seemingly interested in Lucas Paqueta, with links popping up from increasingly credible sources each day. So what's this guy's deal, and what would he bring to Arsenal? Let's run down some facts on him (1/x)...

First thing: I'm firmly in the bag for Paqueta and have been for some time. So, you know, keep that in mind. I'll try to be unflinchingly honest, though.

https://twitter.com/adamvoge/status/1401974092115423239

One of the first things you'll hear anyone talk about with Paqueta is his position. Is he a winger? midfielder? 10? false nine? The easiest answer is "yes," as he's played all over the place. Going back to his teenage breakout season in Brazil, though, he was a left CM.

That season, Paqueta scored 10 goals in 31 starts, helping Flamengo to second in the Brasileirão. He grabbed two assists in 7 Copa Libertadores games as well. Although Flamengo nominally played a 4-1-4-1, Flamengo's map shows he wasn't all about attack only.

Paqueta moved to Italy in January 2019, with AC Milan forking over £34.5m for the youngster, one of the top fees paid for a Brazilian talent. The Milan stint wasn't great. Paqueta played less than 2,000 minutes in two seasons, picking up only 3 goal involvements in 24 lg starts.

The pressure got to Paqueta, who later said he felt alone and let himself get overwhelmed. He found himself losing minutes to Franck Kessie and Ismael Bennacer, and also struggled to adapt as Milan moved from Gennaro Gattuso's 4-3-3, where he was an 8, to Stefano Pioli's system.

Milan moved Paqueta on to Lyon for £18m, and the Brazilian quickly imposed himself. He played primarily right 8 in Rudi Garcia's 4-3-3 his first season, racking up 14 goal involvements out of a midfield that included his friend and fellow Brazilian, Bruno Guimaraes.

Here's a chart of Paqueta's performance that season. Among his other accomplishments, it's noteworthy that whoscored ranked him their 13th-best player leaguewide that season, which saw Lyon finish fourth.

Last summer, Lyon hired Peter Bosz as manager, and a lot changed. Bosz preferred a 4-2-3-1, which primarily meant Paqueta taking on the most advanced CAM/10 role. Guimaraes and Caqueret were frequent CM starters. Paqueta again thrived, earned 15 goal involvements in 32 starts.

Here's his chart. It's noteworthy that Paqueta was strong in buildup even when not getting a goal or assist, as well as being one of the club's primarily ball progressors and its best presser, leading the line usually from the front.

One thing that makes me feel good about Paqueta playing box to box: Even despite being named as a 10 this past season, Paqueta's defensive numbers compare really favorably even to your standard midfielder. That's atypical of a 10 in my experience.

Regardless of his position at the club level, Paqueta has pretty much been a midfield mainstay for Brazil, possibly the best national team in the world. he's now up to 33 caps at just 24. Below is his heatmap in 2021 WC qualifying, as you can see very typical of a left 8.

So what would Paqueta bring to Arsenal? Versatility for sure. While he would likely sign to be a regular starter in central midfield, Paqueta has been a regular feature at 10, wing and false 9 at his various stops, meaning he'd be a capable fill-in in more area than one.

Paqueta, like Arsenal's other left 8 targets, is a better final-third passer than Arsenal's current midfielders. His 0.18 career xA would have placed him third among Arsenal regulars last season, well above Xhaka (0.09) or Partey (0.06).

He's also a much better taking on a man than Arsenal's current midfield. His career-low 1.19 dribbles per 90 (with 56.6% successful) would again put him right among Arsenal's best. Partey averaged 1.29 last season. For the record, Paqueta is just short of 2 dribbles, 63.3% career

Potential issues, other than the price: Statistically speaking, he is prone to turnovers. Paqueta's career turnovers per touch is high compared to someone like Youri Tielemans or Granit Xhaka. But he's more direct. Is it a feature of his Brazilian style, or a bug? Pros and cons

Would Paqueta work for an Arsenal, or is he the wrong player at the wrong time? I don't love his reported price, and OL are a pain, but I do love the player. He's smart, he's active, and perhaps, with Brazilians all around him, he'd feel at home at the carpet. Time will tell.