The best way to see the decrease in Russian ranged fire over the last few days might be to compare 3-day maps. Looking at July 10-12 (today) and July 7-9. There are two things that come out when you see them. First in the Donbas there is a huge drop in fire. July 10-12
Even more interesting, the fire that is around the three key Ukrainian defensive cities during the last 3 days, is very small indeed (Siversk, Sloviansk, Bakhmut). However pan out, and behind Russian lines, there is now more fire than behind Ukrainian lines. Thats a big change
If you look to the south of Bakhmut on that second map (panned out) you will see a number of large concetrated fires. Those are at least partly effective ranged Ukrainian attacks on Russian behind the lines targets. So not only is fire dying down, its becoming more Ukrainian.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Jul 12
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian Railway network overall, then a zeroed in map on exactly where the depot was located. Its the black dot on the upper of the two blue lines.
The two blue lines, btw, are the only two major rail lines into the Kherson front for the Russians, they are absolutely vital to the supply of their troops, and what this attack is showing is that they are in real trouble.
Read 14 tweets
Jul 11
Cummings seems upset, but all I did was point out that that in March 1, when the Russian Army was knee deep into war crimes in Ukraine, he called for Ukraine to be treated like Hungary in 1956, which was left to be brutalised by the USSR
Here’s the tweet. As his position was entirely in opposition to that of the U.K. government, it’s necessary that Sunak state his Ukraine policy clearly and whether Cummings will be involved in government again.
Clearly involving Cummings could lead to a seismic shift in the UK’s stance, and that needs to be understood. Don’t know why he’s so defensive.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 11
Surprised this isn’t being talked about more in the press and conservatives party. With all the talk of Dominic Cummings backing Rishi Sunak, it calls into question one of the few claims of success of this government, it’s support of Ukraine. metro.co.uk/2022/07/11/ris…
Cummings has been a Putin apologist when it comes to explaining the reasons for the war as this @NickCohen4 piece describes. amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Cummings has already called for the US to treat Ukraine today like Hungary was treated in 1956. In other words abandoned to the USSR, which was allowed to crush a Hungarian freedom movement.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
This story in @thetimes deserves a mention. It represents not only a confirmation of a complete change in the tone of Ukrainian government over the last few weeks, it shows why the war of the last few months might not have evolved like many think. thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrain…
The most important point is that the Ukrainian defence minister @oleksiireznikov isn making it very clear that the Ukrainians actually have many 100,000s of soldiers that they can deploy into the fight than the Russians. Says a million here...
that might be a little optimistic, but when you consider Ukraine did have a standing force of 80k before the war, with 400k reserve, has had conscription and the return of overseas Ukrainians, a force of more than half a million is plausible even after the losses Ukr has had.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 10
Sunday update, a discussion of range/accuracy versus mass. There is a noticeable change in the last 2 weeks in the ranged war (which is the most important in this attritional phase) and that is that Ukraine is now showing the ability to hit back.
If you look at a map of FIRMS data (fires that can be picked up by satellite) there is a significant change since the beginning of June. Then, most of the fire was very close to the front line, and crucially mostly where the Russians were trying to advance.
Best to start with Donetsk Oblast, occupied by Russia for years, which has been a relatively secure base for their logistics and the major city of Donetsk is right on the border between Ukrainian and Russian controlled territory. Here is @War_Mapper purple/red Russian controlled
Read 25 tweets
Jul 9
Worth adding this to the talk about attacking weapons depots. Ukraine also using its new range systems to go after Russian command and control. That’s definitely US doctrine, and if they can seriously degrade both Russian supply and command in the Kherson area, watch out.
Ukrainians being very open telling civilians to get out of the Kherson area.
Worth adding this here, more warnings to Ukrainian civilians about imminent action in both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions
Read 4 tweets

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