Thread by @snekotron

Pretty interesting polling with 8000 sampled across 10 EU nations, nailing down some of the gradations of European sentiment regarding the current conflict. Specifically regarding the goals of the conflict - "peace" or "justice" for Ukraine. /1
ecfr.eu/publication/pe…

First off, broadly speaking, most Europeans want a complete severance of ties with Russia, with UK and Poland leading the pack. On the other end, Romania and Italy favor cutting ties the least, though nearly half of respondents wanted a complete severance of economic ties. /2

Moreover, the "peace" camp shouldn't be seen as pro-Russian or even particularly pragmatic. A near majority of them also favor a complete severance of ties. In general Russia should dispense with the notion that there are many sympathetic ears within the European public. /3

That said, the ones who want "peace" in Ukraine outnumber the justice-seekers, though by no means are they dominant, with nearly half the public undecided. In general this tendency is most pronounced in Italy, Germany, Romania, France. /4

Curiously, justice-seekers don't actually think that their outcome will be much better for Ukraine. They just want to do damage to Russia. In general they take solace in the idea that the EU will be hurt less than Russia will be. /5

Now some of the most important bits of information, tucked away deep in this survey. Support for escalation in the form of a no-fly zone risking open conflict split along peace/justice lines, though judging from the "swing" camp, it is still uncomfortably close to a majority. /6

As for NATO accession, the Peace camp is equally split for and against. While justice seekers and swing voters are overwhelmingly in support. This set of data is in line with earlier data showing the limitations of Russian influence and Russia-sympathetic sentiment. /7

And in general it seems that the Europeans are willing to further escalate, which figures into the calcs of the Russian leadership in calibrating the escalation ladder. In contrast to the peace/justice framing, the polling suggests a deeper divorce between Russia and Europe. /8

The EU public hasn't proven to me that their opinions regarding Russia are substantially different than that of their leadership, other than that they are even more willing to escalate. I am waiting to be proven wrong. /9 END

https://twitter.com/melosocvs/status/1547143853739843584