I had a conversation with a friend of mine about the particulars over EU law and plans to repurpose the interest from Russian sovereign assets. It turns out that the whole thing hinges on a legal technicality. Because the Ru central bank is sanctioned, they can't pay interest. /1 Therefore, Russia does not technically own that money as it has not been paid out to their account. Furthermore, there are extensive legal protections around sovereign immunity in EU courts. Proposed confiscations have to be temporary and reversible. /2

I've not offered a ton of commentary as of late, as there has been little interesting released from the NATO side recently, but the recent leak of German military officials discussing an attack on the Crimea bridge does merit some analysis. /1

de.rt.com/europa/197981-…
While most of the online discussion revolves around hyperventilating over the fact that there was planning for an attack on the Crimea bridge, there are actually a lot of operational details that the conference call let slip. This is of infinitely more interesting. /2

I've been late to this absolute masterclass in CYA from the Washington Post. And while no doubt this article has been endlessly lampooned by Z-posters, some of the points are interesting to consider.

Some observations. /1
archive.ph/4YgHj
Ukraine and the US built the offensive on a series of wargames where they were able to sweep away the Russian defenders and break through to the Sea of Azov. Garbage data fed the assumptions and stats used in the wargames. Garbage in, garbage out. /2

Ok, I had to do a double take on this post before getting that this is indeed a serious post.

Yes, the cornerstone of the US’s technological policy and the reason why we’re living under the threat of WW3 boils down to Apple’s ability to offer thinner bezels and USB-C. /1 People cite TSMC as the reason why Taiwan is so strategic in global affairs, because of their seeming near-monopoly on the latest lithography nodes. Which leads to some dumb speculation that China wants Taiwan for the fabs. /2eurasiantimes.com/us-threatens-t…

Estimating the US's Patriot stockpile. First the easy stuff. According to the budgets, 1943 of the PAC-3 MSE had been procured thru FY22. Prior to that the original PAC-3 whose production ended in '13 was produced at ~1200 units. Prior, 6575 older missiles were produced in 80/90s The US has stopped producing new PAC-2 missiles but has instead continuously refurbished its older stockpile with the modernized GEM series (GEM, GEM-C, GEM-T). The precise number here is unclear, but there was a PR in 2010 announcing the 1000th GEM-T prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

Took some time today to flip through the 2024 Pentagon budget proposal, the unprecedented $842B budget.

1) Production isn't being dramatically increased
2) Increased $ topline comes from inflation and switch to more advanced variants
comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materia… Something basic, like the JLTV will not only cost more for fewer vehicles (3108) but will likely miss production goals in 2023 (3311 out of 3721 projected).

Same story for the AMPV, which instead of the 72 for $380m will only see 43 deliveries this year. 2024 has 91 projected.

An excellent documentary on Maryy Airbase, which was the site of the USSR's "Top Gun" analogue. Not exactly a direct analogue, but it was part of the Soviet Air Force's efforts to rebuild its fighter doctrine from the ground up following the 60s. /1
What was impressive about the program was just how fast it was started after the failure of the Soviet Air Force in a dogfight with Israel over Egypt in 1969. By 1972 the redesigned training regimen was instituted and became an annual regimental-level review and certification. /2

A few days ago I proposed much more modest goals for the winter, and why I think that the rumored grand offensive Ukrainian and western officials are hyping is little more than public opinion shaping to justify more gibs to Ukraine. Russia is dealing with organizational issues /1

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1623130566399823872

To me, the failed push on Ugledar was confirmation of something that I had suspected for some time, which is that the process of reassembling the BTGs into brigades is broken on some level. Mobilization happened but it did not translate into offensive force generation. /2

There are some 3500 in storage, mostly older models. Sending a few dozen of these would be a rounding error.

As I said, the west will continue to find ways to dig deeper into its pockets because Russia has imposed no consequences for escalation.

https://twitter.com/301military/status/1617903188325314563

When it comes down to it, there is no substitute for maneuver warfare, encirclement and annihilation. Ukraine's only purpose is to keep up the attrition against Russia and as long as Russia accepts this pace, it is within the West's calculations.

As I’ve teased, I’ve been reading on the Northern and Southern Dynasties period (420-589 CE) in Chinese history, and this is the 1st of 2 threads on Emperor Taiwu of Northern Wei, whose reunification of the north paved the way for eventual unification under Sui and Tang. /1 While the Three Kingdoms period (190-280 AD) gets most of the attention in the pop cultural exploration of the post-Han post-apocalypse, the reality of men like Cao Cao and Sima Yi was that most of their work was undone within a generation. /2

For those of you who are new, since the start Ukraine has been making claims about Russian air defense missiles hitting civilian targets when it's their own air defense raining down on them. What's more economical at this point, an expensive air defense missile or a shahed?

https://twitter.com/RAware24/status/1592786665361518592

https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1504841449191645186

@mdfzeh @__Iteration Oh, I know exactly what you're talking about, and I have complained bitterly about the over-reliance of Russia on the Donbass Militias while the LDPR has like 2% of the RF population and 50% of the casualties. The Ru army itself has a very limited presence on the line of contact. @mdfzeh @__Iteration This is borrowing from post-WW2 counterinsurgency doctrine where a lot of the fighting against the Banderites was delegated to community militias. Of course this isn't counterinsurgency but a full on conventional war, and the LDPR has lost more people in 6 months than

The Inaros Cycle was a cultural product dating largely from the Greek and Roman period that served the role of highlighting a native Egyptian resistance against foreign occupation. Of course, being written after the fact, it melds the actual Inaros II, an unsuccessful...

https://twitter.com/HypatiaHeuresis/status/1400158660521832451

rebel who was carried to Susa and executed, with the successful period of native restoration in the 6th century BCE under the 26th Dynasty of Necho and Psamtik. Of course, what is written out of this "nationalistic" narrative is was the most important part.

Pretty interesting polling with 8000 sampled across 10 EU nations, nailing down some of the gradations of European sentiment regarding the current conflict. Specifically regarding the goals of the conflict - "peace" or "justice" for Ukraine. /1
ecfr.eu/publication/pe… First off, broadly speaking, most Europeans want a complete severance of ties with Russia, with UK and Poland leading the pack. On the other end, Romania and Italy favor cutting ties the least, though nearly half of respondents wanted a complete severance of economic ties. /2

Reading about the Sino-Vietnamese border conflicts of 1979 through the 1980s, one can’t help but get a sense of déjà vu. In fact the prelude with the buildup in 1979 eerily echoes the current special military operation. /1 And once the fighting was underway, talk of the war was subdued, without even public displays in the PRC for supporting the troops. The operation had to be limited in scale and time so as to not attract outside attention, especially from Vietnam’s ally, the USSR. /2

This article is a baby step towards realism, but I have to point out the cognitive bias that is still impossible to penetrate.

"The Ukrainian army is facing a manpower shortage."

"Of course, the Russians continue to take even higher casualties."
mwi.usma.edu/time-is-not-on… 1. Ukraine just completed its 5th wave of mobilization is on its 6th, with 400k+ mobilized.
2. Russia hasn't been mobilizing apart from a relatively small number of volunteers (a few 10s of thousands)
3. The colonel's assumptions seem to be rooted in racial bias.

All right, as promised, it’s time to talk about the collapse of the Akkadian Empire and the 4.2ka BP aridification event. /1 The 4.2ka BP aridification event, or the 4.2-kiloyear event, was a severe megadrought that affected much of the world, in particular Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at around 2200 BCE and lasting for more than 2 centuries. /2

A very good question, and one that I will use as a jumping off point. Just why is the Western media so aligned with the Zelensky team’s provocations and media narratives? It’s fundamentally an alignment of interests. /1

https://twitter.com/albnicL/status/1535183003168784384

While some will say that the media is just whatever the “deep state” tells them to say, and there is much truth to the role govt plays in shaping media narratives, this view is too simplistic as it does not account for factions within the govt and the agency of journalists. /2

I keep seeing this stupid article pop up on my feed, with people celebrating supposedly how the Western media is being brought to heel and is being forced to admit the truth. This is wishful thinking. It is a psyop article. /1 independent.co.uk/news/world/eur… Even with Russia's material advantages, a 20:1 advantage in artillery (40:1 in ammunition) on Russia's side would entail a complete, rapid collapse of Ukrainian lines. There would not be enough Ukrainian artillery to even conduct artillery skirmishes. /2

There's a lot of commentary out there that attempts to glean some sort of endgame scenario out of a key phrase or two out of the mouth of Lavrov or Peskov or some other government official. Let me clue you in on how governing a bureaucracy works. /1 This was written by Han Fei, a Chinese strategist during the late Warring States period, and it is remarkable in the canon of ancient philosophy in that it is nothing but practical insight into the flow of power in a bureaucratic setting. Very readable even for non-philosophers/2

Strelkov came out with a series of posts analogizing the current conflict to the Russo-Japanese war. It is a reflection of just how warped his thought processes have become. He has a point to prove, and it's a dumb one. The defending side in 1904-05 (Russia) had apparently underestimated people it thought were racially inferior and therefore mobilized too late and by the time they were ready to fight, the economy collapsed and the war was over boohoo. 😢