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Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Jul 13, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

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The A-10 Thunderbolt II is a one-trick pony that is of no use to Ukraine:

• can the A-10 fly Combat Air Patrols (CAP)? No.
• can the A-10 Suppress Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)? No.
• can the A-10 do Close Air Support (CAS)? Yes.

The F-16 can do all three and do them better.
1/n

The F-16 can mount six AIM-120C-7 or six AIM-120D AMRAAM beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM). The A-10 can mount none, because it doesn't even have a radar.

Photo: a F-16C Block 40, which uses the AN/APG-68(V)5 radar, departs with six AIM-120C-7 for a CAP.
2/n

The F-16 can mount two AGM-88E AARGM air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles with a AN/ASQ-213 HTS pod to find and strike enemy air defenses. The A-10 can't.

Photo: two F-16CJ Block 52 with a full SEAD load on patrol.
3/n

When the A-10 was designed and introduced a plane doing CAS had to fly low to accurately straff enemy positions.
Low meant within range of enemy man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and anti-aircraft cannons. Therefore the A-10 has an armored cockpit.
4/n

With the arrival of laser-guided, GPS-guided, infrared homing, etc. bombs and missiles a plane doesn't have to fly low to accurately hit an enemy position.

Nowadays a F-16 (or A-10, F-15E, F/A-18E/F) can fly above the range of MANPADS and anti-aircraft fire, because
5/n

thanks to targeting pods they can drop a dozen bombs with pinpoint accuracy on enemy positions.

The US Air Force even mounted Sniper Advanced Targeting pods on B-1B Lancer bombers and used the bombers for CAS.

There is no need for a fighter to fly low anymore.
6/n

Even the A-10 fly now with a Sniper or Litening targeting pod.

On the modern battlefield there is no need for a plane like the A-10 anymore - a plane that can only be used after fighters have won air supremacy and have destroyed enemy air defenses.
7/n

Of all the US Air Force fighters the F-16 is the most versatile.
It is still in production and the newest variant, the F-16V Block 70/72, is capable to defeat all non-NATO fighters. And: the Block 70/72 upgrade can be retrofitted to older F-16 variants.

8/n

On the other hand the A-10 is only useful against an enemy without air force and with no air-defenses.

If A-10 planes are sent to Ukraine now, then their life expectancy is less than that of a russian ammo dump.

What Ukraine needs are F-16. And lots of them.
9/.

PS re. other US fighters:
• F-22, F-35 off limits to UA
• F-15C/D can only do combat air patrols
• F-15E/EX USAF needs them all
• F/A-18C/D excellent fighter, not as good for SEAD as the F-16, production line has closed, 2nd best option for UA
• F/A-18E/F USN needs them all

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More from @noclador

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 13

Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
1/5

could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5

troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5

Read 5 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 7

The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
1/40

https://x.com/noclador/status/1963672692990816364

This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,

2/n

https://x.com/noclador/status/1963672692990816364

and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
3/n

Read 41 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 4

2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

1/36

https://x.com/noclador/status/1962651802802770133

These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
2/n

https://x.com/noclador/status/1962651802802770133

of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
3/n

Read 36 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 1

• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
1/39

As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
2/n

(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
3/n

Read 39 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Aug 18

People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
1/14

backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
2/n

in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n

Read 14 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Jul 4

This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12

This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12

This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12

Read 12 tweets

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