Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Jul 13 10 tweets 4 min read
The A-10 Thunderbolt II is a one-trick pony that is of no use to Ukraine:

• can the A-10 fly Combat Air Patrols (CAP)? No.
• can the A-10 Suppress Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)? No.
• can the A-10 do Close Air Support (CAS)? Yes.

The F-16 can do all three and do them better.
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The F-16 can mount six AIM-120C-7 or six AIM-120D AMRAAM beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM). The A-10 can mount none, because it doesn't even have a radar.

Photo: a F-16C Block 40, which uses the AN/APG-68(V)5 radar, departs with six AIM-120C-7 for a CAP.
2/n Image
The F-16 can mount two AGM-88E AARGM air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles with a AN/ASQ-213 HTS pod to find and strike enemy air defenses. The A-10 can't.

Photo: two F-16CJ Block 52 with a full SEAD load on patrol.
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When the A-10 was designed and introduced a plane doing CAS had to fly low to accurately straff enemy positions.
Low meant within range of enemy man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and anti-aircraft cannons. Therefore the A-10 has an armored cockpit.
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With the arrival of laser-guided, GPS-guided, infrared homing, etc. bombs and missiles a plane doesn't have to fly low to accurately hit an enemy position.

Nowadays a F-16 (or A-10, F-15E, F/A-18E/F) can fly above the range of MANPADS and anti-aircraft fire, because
5/n Image
thanks to targeting pods they can drop a dozen bombs with pinpoint accuracy on enemy positions.

The US Air Force even mounted Sniper Advanced Targeting pods on B-1B Lancer bombers and used the bombers for CAS.

There is no need for a fighter to fly low anymore.
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Even the A-10 fly now with a Sniper or Litening targeting pod.

On the modern battlefield there is no need for a plane like the A-10 anymore - a plane that can only be used after fighters have won air supremacy and have destroyed enemy air defenses.
7/n ImageImage
Of all the US Air Force fighters the F-16 is the most versatile.
It is still in production and the newest variant, the F-16V Block 70/72, is capable to defeat all non-NATO fighters. And: the Block 70/72 upgrade can be retrofitted to older F-16 variants.

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On the other hand the A-10 is only useful against an enemy without air force and with no air-defenses.

If A-10 planes are sent to Ukraine now, then their life expectancy is less than that of a russian ammo dump.

What Ukraine needs are F-16. And lots of them.
9/. Image
PS re. other US fighters:
• F-22, F-35 off limits to UA
• F-15C/D can only do combat air patrols
• F-15E/EX USAF needs them all
• F/A-18C/D excellent fighter, not as good for SEAD as the F-16, production line has closed, 2nd best option for UA
• F/A-18E/F USN needs them all

• • •

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More from @noclador

Jul 11
Let's talk complexity.

A thread about the F-16 🧵

The F-16 is a capable fighter, which is in service with 11 NATO air forces (Norway retired theirs this January). It's the fighter Ukraine will most likely receive from the US.

1/n Image
I explained why it will be the F-16 in a short 1 April thread.

I am all for giving Ukraine 80-90 F-16, as it is a far better fighter than the junk russia has.
However Ukrainian Su-27 or Mig-29 pilots can not master a F-16 in a few weeks.

2/n

First let's talk air bases: the moment Ukraine lands F-16 at its air bases, russia will hammer these bases with cruise and ballistic missiles.
So before a F-16 can fly to Ukraine, each air base needs a Patriot air defense battery to protect it from russian attacks.

3/n Image
Read 29 tweets
Jul 10
I created graphics of current @USArmy divisions and the future WAYPOINT 2028 division.

First up the current and future light division. The @10MTNDIV (10th Mountain) will likely be the first division to be reorganized like this.

1/n ImageImage
Next the @82ndABNDiv and @101stAASLTDIV, which are currently organized like light divisions. Both divisions will slightly differ from standard light divisions under WAYPOINT 2028.

2/n ImageImage
Current heavy division and future heavy division organization - my guess is that the @FightingFirst will receive a Stryker brigade from the @4thInfDiv, and the 4th Infantry will receive an armored brigade from the @1stCavalryDiv, which in turn will gobble up the @3dUSCAV.

3/n ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Jul 6
The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk.

What does this mean for russian logistics?
A thread 🧵:

Since 2014-15 russia built dozens of ammo dumps hidden in civilian buildings near railway stations in the parts of Ukraine it occupies.

1/n

russian logistics depots are always close to railways as russia's military has a serious lack of logistic units, especially transport units.

This is compounded by russia's military being corrupt and technologically backwards, even eschewing things like forklifts or cranes.

2/n
So russian supplies and ammo are loaded by hand onto trains, transported towards the front, unloaded there by hand, loaded onto trucks by hand, and then driven to the frontline units, where it is unloaded again by hand.

It's time consuming. No other army is so backwards.

3/n
Read 26 tweets
Jul 1
First we saw that Ukrainian PzH 2000 crews don't use the automatic magazine.
Now we see that AHS Krab crews also don't use the automatic magazine, but lift each projectile by hand into the autoloader.

Why? I have a theory - and it tells us a lot about Ukraine's situation.

1/n ImageImage
The PzH 2000 has a fully automated magazine with 60 projectiles, which are automatically placed into the autoloader. The autoloader loads and rams the projectiles into the barrel and the automatic primer magazine loads the primer.
All this allows for a high rate of fire.

2/n
The AHS Krab uses a modernized British AS-90 turret, so I will use an AS-90 video to explain the Krab's loading process.
The AS-90 has a fully automatic magazine with 48 projectiles. The selected projectiles are moved to the magazine's center and a crew member then uses a

3/n
Read 22 tweets
Jun 29
Why 🇮🇹 Italy can't send PzH 2000 to 🇺🇦 Ukraine:

Italy bought 68 PzH 2000, 54 of which are assigned to three regiments:

• 8th Field Artillery Regiment "Pasubio"
• 52nd Artillery Regiment "Torino"
• 132nd Field Artillery Regiment "Ariete"
1/6 ImageImageImageImage
The 8th and 132nd are the artillery regiments of Italy's two heavy brigades, which are both assigned to NATO. The 52nd is the army's divisional artillery regiment and also assigned to NATO.

And yes, the 8th and 52nd have the Ukrainian Tryzub in their coat of arms, as both
2/6 Image
regiments fought in Ukraine in 1941; taking Horlivka and Donetsk from the Soviets (the Ukrainian Tryzub is actually the most common element in Italian Army heraldry).

A further 6 PzH 2000 are assigned to the army's Artillery School, while 6 are the reserve, and 2 are at the

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 28
Just saw someone I respect tweet that Iron Dome and Patriot are "long range air defense" systems, that "provide point defense"... and that Patriot is "extremely limited".

And I am like -WTF? WTF???

The US alone has 60+ Patriot batteries and more than 400 launchers.
1/5 Image
Patriot is the most common Western air defense system. And it is not a point defense system. Yes, Patriot could be used as a point defense system if a battery would only employ PAC-3 and/or PAC-3 MSE missiles, but

(Photo: a M903 launcher with 8 PAC-3 and 6 PAC-3 MSE)
2/5 Image
every battery employs a mix of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles - the latter for point defense, the former for long range air defense. The range of PAC-2 is 160+ km, while the Patriot's AN/MPQ-65A radar has a range of 220+ km.

(Photo: a M903 launcher with 2 PAC-2 and 6 PAC-3 MSE)

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets

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