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PLC

@Humble_Analysis

Jul 13

ONS data from England indicates that boosted individuals younger than 50 years old were 30% to 40% more likely to die during May (from all causes) than were unvaccinated persons:

On the other hand, middle-aged persons in England who were boosted are seeing 20% to 30% lower mortality than unvaccinated people of the same age:

For the very old, the situation reverses with the boosted elderly dying at a higher rate in May than the unvaccinated elderly:

Read 4 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

Jul 13

>90% of all covid deaths in England since February were vaccinated.

In every month except Dec '21, the vaccinated accounted for a disproportionate share of covid deaths in England (largely due to age stratification).

"Pandemic of the Unvaccinated", indeed...

Non-covid deaths can be used as a proxy for age adjustment: so long as the share of covid deaths is lower than the share of non-covid deaths, the vaccines are showing some efficacy vs. death.

Unfortunately, this gap has almost entirely disappeared:

Comparing covid death share to non-covid death share provides a rough estimate of VE vs. death in England.

What this shows is that VE vs. death started out low but significant and that VE waned steadily before essentially disappearing by March:

Read 6 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

Jul 7

It sure doesn't seem like parents are exactly "rushing out" to get their infants and toddlers vaccinated, does it?

In Connecticut, for example, just about 1.5% of young children were vaccinated during the first week of eligibility.

Without mandates, it is highly unlikely that this number will ever rise above 10%, nationwide.

ctmirror.org/2022/07/06/cov…

Less than 30% of 5-11 year olds are fully vaccinated - and this number is not rising.

In every age bracket under 65, less than 1/2 the population has been boosted.

It really appears as those people are done listening to the "experts" about these vaccines.

Read 4 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

Jun 21

New England Journal of Medicine study shows that mRNA vaccine effectiveness turns negative by six months while prior infection retains strong effectiveness against infection for at least a year.

This study showed that a booster dose restores vaccine-induced protection - for a few weeks, at least. We know from other studies that dose 3 protection wanes about 2X as fast as dose 2 protection.

What this means is that getting vaccinated effectively delays your inevitable infection by a few months and since most of the unvaccinated have already been infected, the vast majority of current cases are occurring in those who vaccine-induced "protection" has turned negative.

Read 6 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

Jun 2

We were told that all of Southeast Asia "controlled" covid via masks, tack&trace, quarantine, border controls... but somehow Omicron evaded all these factors.

Which is more believable? Omicron can magically evade all controls or that apparent control was always an illusion?

No honest person still believes that masks can impact the spread of covid, but some still cling to the efficacy of "early track & trace"... but serosurveys in Southeast Asia indicate that they never did a good job of tracking true infections:

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Somewhere between just 10% and 30% of true infections were detected in Japan - rendering track & trace, and quarantine/isolation, policies moot.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Read 5 tweets

PLC

@Humble_Analysis

May 13

Taiwan, with closed borders, universal masking, and 62% boosted currently has the highest case rate in the world.

From this we can determine definitively that masks, border closures, and vaccines do not prevent infection or transmission.

So, what protected Taiwan until now?

Additionally, restrictions in Taiwan have only become more stringent; so it wasn't a loosening of restrictions that caused the current seasonal wave:

We now know, with essentially absolute certainty, that masks, lockdowns, vaccines, and border closures don't prevent transmission.

The only explanation for Taiwan's protection up to now is that they (along with all of SE Asia & Oceania) were immune to pre-Omicron variants.

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