Thread by @lewis_goodall

Key takeaways from this (mainly Conservative inclined group)

-terror/fury about economy, about winter to come.
-short shrift for ‘culture war’ issues in that context: “what’s that got to do with me?” Sole focus cost of living
-desperate to hear about policies to deal with it.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1547232967713587200

Damage to Conservative brand as a result of the Johnson scandals is real. Feeling was Tory MPs had left it too long.

As a result new broom candidates went down best. Sunak problems real, both because voters in this group associate him most with BJ but also because of economy.

Most had seen the Sunak working class video, which went down badly. Generally the feeling was that none of Westminster had a clue about how bad things were on cost of living but he was most out of touch of all. Non-dom issue regarding his wife came up as well.

Again on Sunak: "if you’d asked me six months ago I’d have said yeah but not now." Another: "he's leagues away from average person. There's a huge class divide." Agreement was he was polished but damaged.

Only Sunak and Truss were known by the group. Truss was also well known for "those gaffes" which many had seen on TikTok (role and power of funny videos much underplayed in how many voters interpret modern politics).

None of the candidates especially interested the group, though Tugenhadt and Badenoch went down best. As I say, those who are unknown have a genuine opportunity to reach voters, as they're so desperate for direction and ideas, but they'll have to have something to say.

What was striking is how flat 'culture war' issues were, how removed so much of the SW1 conversation which dominates politics and a fair bit of the media really is, despite fact it's often done in name of 'real people'. Any clip where a candidate talked about those issues tanked.

And that's because people felt these are convos they just can't afford to have. They spoke of gas/elec projected bills of £3500+. Deep foreboding about the winter ahead and economic catastrophe. Having to take on second jobs. The gap between public & Westminster never felt wider.

"What they've given my family doesn’t cover barely any of my costs." Another on energy: "what they’ve given me is enough to cover a 1.5 months of my new bill." And: "they need to focus on the working class, we’re not idiots, just because we’re not wearing a suit and not posh."

Also striking was in this Brexit voting group how uninterested they were in the subject now: "it's done." Again, they saw it as a distraction from cost of living and didn't want to hear politicians talking about it any more.

Also again, world away from the contest.

I cannot overemphasise, not just from convo with this group but voters elsewhere just how a) pessimistic people are about their own future and country's future b) the disconnect (ok, always there) between Westminster and public c) deep weariness after years of crisis.

Btw this disconnect spans across Westminster. No great sense from this group Starmer or Labour has the answers- though naturally because Conservatives have been govt for so long, they draw most of the ire.

Btw this may be striking given where the SW1/Westminster conversation is at but it's not remotely surprising. As anyone who has ever struggled to put food on the table or pay a bill knows, when that's the situ you're in of course, it's all you care about.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1547518654585208832?s=20&t=NvR74v22QbLZad1CNdk15w

just one focus group but supported by wider experience and polling. Danger of contest for party, country and media is the candidates/SW1 end up having a conversation in a parallel world to voters, which itself intensifies sense of distance between political class and public.

END

By way of illustrating this further, one of the women at the focus group said she’s already had to tell her kids this winter she won’t be able to have the central heating on much. They don’t believe her.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1547519437468848128

What is interesting is that the “oh they’re just talking to Conservative members” analysis doesn’t work because, as polling shows, Tory members actually aren’t that far removed from the public on what they care about right now. SW1 conversation is more elite and narrow still.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1546960872744124416

If you want to see the piece in full you can watch it here. Produced @caithanrahan shot/edited (in record time) Jamie Bowles and Jonathan Callary and featuring @Moreincommon_ ‘s own @LukeTryl whose team assembled the group.