Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 14th. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations. I have done some maintenance today. (I also had to redo the whole post because of technical errors)
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

The thread today will include speculations. I am NOT speculating if the goals can be achieved. I'm speculating on what I believe the possible plans are.

I'm not really interested in comments about if it's possible. I am however interested in comments about other possible strategies.

I have reviewed the front line for most areas and adjusted it in several places. Most of the changes are due to consolidation of positions rather than recent movement. It is possible to the history of the frontline if you activate older dates on the interactive map.

Added 37 shellings in 37 locations. Firms can be seen on the interactive map, its too early in the day to really have any info.

> FIRMS Data: 2022-07-14_14:32
> Added 46 locations to kml
> Filtered 0 locations by proximity to other fires
> Removed 77 false positives

Current/Future weather for Kharkiv, Donetsk and Mykolaiv.

Past weather.

Kharkiv area. No actions have been reported. This image shows the railway in green, with a 31km buffer (rough max range of base bleed artillery munition). I also added a 85km dashed circle with a center in Kup'yans'k (rough HIMARS range, no need to comment on this).

As you can see on the map, RU forces have a considerable amount of units in the area of Belogrod. Ru forces have been restoring combat capabilities in some of their "top" units for weeks now.

I think it's possible RU forces will try and do something like this in the future to increase their buffer zone along their supply routes. I think this would be done after a possible capture of Slovyansk.

In the Izium-Slovyansk area we have seen RU forces trying to advance along the SD river for weeks. This possibly server several purposes. The obvious one is to advance towards Slovyansk, but I also think this is meant to increase their buffer zone for the Sosnove-Lyman railroad.

There is also the issue RU forces have with UA guerilla warfare on the north side of the River. However, in the last few days, we have seen a possible shift of tactics.

Instead of trying to capture the towns, I believe RU forces have been advancing in the terrain towards Ivanivka and I think the goal might be to take control over the Slovyansk railway connection. An assault on Slovyansk would become easier if they can cut the supply.

I don't believe we have seen any major attempt from the RU forces to advance in this area (south of Izium) lately.

The area RU forces are most actively tying to advance in contains 5 fairly large cities. Slovyansk Kramatorsk Druzhkivka Kostyantynivka and Bakhmut. There is also Sivers'k still holding on, which has surprised me, I believe Ru forces would capture it fairly quick.

I believe RU forces are advancing towards key supply routes, it seems to have been effective in the past for the RU forces. I think there will be a RU attempt to cross the SD river E of Slovyansk at some point, possibly with support from advancing RU forces in the Sivers'k area.

RU forces had partial success advancing in the Kam'yanka area. This surprised me a bit, this area has been fairly calm for at least a month.

UA forces have been applying pressure the Zaporizhzhia Donetsk area for the last few weeks. I believe the RU goal here at the moment is to maintain a buffer area for the land bridge between Russian and the Kherson area. (Red zone = 85km from font. No need to comment on range)

Lately we have seen UA attacks on RU targets in Mariupol and Melitopol. Berdyansk is almost in range. I don't think it's impossible for UA forces to get Berdyansk within HIMARS range in the near future. Especially since RU forces are shifting resources over to the Kherson area.

We are still seeing very little progress from UA forces in the Kherson region. I have earlier stated that I don't believe Kherson city to be the goal of the UA offensive in this area, I believe it is meant to make RU allocate resources from the Zaporizhzhia area to Kherson...

... to weaken the Zaporizhzhia - Donetsk line in preparation for a large scale UA offensive in this area.

A successful UA offensive in this area would change the equation for the Kherson front, and probably force a RU withdrawal from the area.

If we add 300km HIMARS ATACMS in to the mix after a assumed liberation of the Melitopol area, we get a whole new scenario. This blue 300km circle covers both Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, the two RU military naval bases in the Black Sea area. It also puts Kerch bridge in range.

As a conclusion I believe UA forces are trying to set up an operational environment where a liberation of the south is possible by sacrificing small areas in the east around Slovyansk. Keep in mind, RU forces have concentrated over 50% of their ground forces in the east.

There will be a late update tonight.

To clarify the offensive in the south. I do not think it will be a full front attack trying to clear it in one fast sweep. I think it will be slow, and targeting key supply points. Tomak and Polohy would be initial goals. Tomak would divide the RU railway system in two.

The next step would possibly be to take Novobohdanivka. At this point UA forces could take out the Kherson railway bridge, and not even have to target the railway at Nova Kakhova dam to remove railway access to Kherson.

Out of time for now.

Updated Shellings and FIRMS on the interactive map.

RU forces on the edge of Volodymyrivka. RU channels are claiming they have captured Stryapivka and Nova Kam'yanka. They even claimed they were fighting in Soledar. For me this is more or less proof that those claims are BS. Walking along the cemetery around. 48.6650, 38.1723

Source: t.me/rian_ru/171179
Electrical poles can be seen in video.

Unique looking field.

The low ground west of the cemetery.

Ok, so they must have retreated even more.

Towns RU forces claims they are in marked in blue. Towns in which RU forces are geolocated marked with monkey.