I am very proud of this inaugural report from Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) on the #Log4j incident. Grateful for the leadership of our Board Chair @DHS_Policy and Deputy Chair @argvee. Here are the most important highlights from my perspective 🧵
1. CSRB has found NO EVIDENCE of any malicious exploitation of vulnerability prior to the December 9th public disclosure of the vulnerability. This is important since there was speculation about whether China or any other country may have had early knowledge and exploited the bug
Public reporting prior to our investigation had indicated the opposite, so it was important for us to try to get to the bottom of this issue
2. Alibaba and its researcher Chen Zhaojun had followed the recognized best practices for coordinated vulnerability disclosure in reporting the bug to Apache Software Foundation (ASF) and I believe they should be commended for it
3. CSRB was not able to conclusively determine how a researcher at BoundaryX, a Chinese firm, had uncovered (and then published) the vulnerability prior to its public disclosure
However, since ASF had opened a public issue in its tracking system and committed a fix to the vulnerability as early as Dec 5th, it is likely that BoundaryX had uncovered it from reverse engineering of these actions
4. CSRB heard from the official representative of the Chinese government, as well as other sources, that Alibaba reported the vulnerability to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Technology (MIIT) on Dec 13th, well after the public disclosure
5. Chinese government chose not answer CSRB’s questions about whether public reports about Alibaba being sanctioned by MIIT for not reporting the vulnerability to them earlier are accurate, which increased the Board’s concerns about China’s mandatory vulnerability disclosure laws
Such laws can provide Chinese government (and their intelligence services) early access to exploitable vulnerabilities before they are patched
The reports about alleged sanctions of Alibaba by MIIT (whether true or not) could create a chilling effect and deter other Chinese researchers from following Alibaba’s example and disclosing vulnerabilities responsibly
It was highly unfortunate that the Chinese government did not take the opportunity to dispel or confirm these reports in their response to CSRB
Beyond these important fact-findings, CSRB has issued 19 recommendations for industry, CISA, OMB, NCD, NIST, federal and state regulators, and other parties
It was my great honor to work with an all-star team of senior government and private sector leaders on this report. Being a new board, it was not an easy process to do a complex investigation involving parties in multiple countries like this but I believe we met the challenge
Time to talk about realistic ways to lift the Black Sea blockade which, as I've discussed on many occasions, remains the most important strategic issue for Ukraine in this war (since their victory in the Battle of Kyiv in March) 🧵
With the blockade in place, Ukraine's export-driven economy simply can't survive without billions of dollars of continuous monthly support from the West
And millions of jobs in Ukraine are dependent on the agricultural, extraction and industrial sectors that can't survive without the reopening of at least the Odesa ports (Mariupol and Kherson would obviously be very helpful too, if they can someday be recaptured)
We certainly went quick from 'Russia is destroying our democracy' to 'Russia is not a great power and is irrelevant on the world stage'. Both are dramatic overstatements of reality... 🧵
Yes, Russia is nowhere close in its ability to project power globally as US or China. That's obvious. It is only the 11th largest economy in the world and highly dependent on resource extraction (even more so now after latest sanctions)
Yes, its performance in Ukraine has been atrocious - both in terms of planning the invasion, logistics, troop training and performance, etc. Yet, it still has occupied over 20% of the country even with Ukraine consuming large quantities of Western military aid and intelligence
Two months ago I said that the fight for the Donbas would have little bearing on the outcome of the war
Now as that fight moves into its attritional phase, Putin's evolving strategy is becoming quite clear. He believes time is on his side. And he may be right 🧵
Having failed at his original (and wildly unrealistic) plan of replacing the Zelensky government in 3 days and not having the forces to go back for major new offensives, Putin's best bet for achieving strategic success is now at the negotiation table
But given that the Ukrainians have (quite understandably) little interest in compromising with Russia, Putin knows he needs to increase his leverage before restarting the talks
And his best option for that is to prolong the war at least until winter
Interesting piece on how it wasn’t the NATO expansions of the 90s but US-led action against Iraq and in the Balkans that eventually drove US-Russia relationship off the cliff
Ultimately it wasn’t just the outrage of “not being consulted” that infuriated the Russians
It was - in their view - the US-driven rebalancing of the Cold War alliance system that they saw as an attempt to drive traditionally Soviet-affiliated or non-aligned states into the US sphere of influence (sometimes through regime change)
Let’s talk about the state of the war and one of the most underreported yet crucially important issues:
Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and resulting strangulation of the country’s economy 🧵
First, the state of the war.
Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv and forced Russia to withdraw from the north
The Battle for Donbas is underway and even though Russia has somewhat improved its tactics there and has shorter logistics routes, Ukraine has a good chance to thwart major Russian territory gains due to massive heavy weapons aid arriving now from the West