Thread by @AndrewErickson_

TDs lead to championships.

If you want to win your fantasy football league…

Draft these players primed for positive TD regression.

Chargers WR Mike Williams has 40 end-zone targets since 2019.

He has converted 8 into TDs, 5 of which came last season.

Last year alone he finished with the 6th-most EZ targets.

With a resume that features a double-digit TD szn, Williams is primed to score 10-plus TDs

and repeat his WR12 finish in half-point scoring.

Nothing has really changed about Williams' situation except Allen is another year older.

Coming off his worst yards per route run output since 2014.

Also, Allen's 28% 2020 tgt share with Herbert dropped to 22%.

And Austin Ekeler scoring 20 TDs for a 2nd season is unlikely.

After his expected touchdown total was 13 last year.

Saquon Barkley had just 13 red-zone touches last season.

Fewer than:

Carlos Hyde
Alex Collins
Taysom Hill
Peyton Barber
Brandon Bolden
Devontae Booker
Mike Davis

And he had just two red-zone touches over his last 7 gms.

This mark will 100% regress positively in a better offense.

Speaking of Giants…Poor Kenny Golladay.

The Giants‘ prized offseason acquisition failed to score ONCE

Despite seeing 13 end-zone targets.

It was the most end-zone targets of any player to go scoreless

We have an extremely large sample size of Golladay catching TDs at the NFL level.

He led the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns in 2019.

So the big-bodied wideout has nowhere to go but up in 2022.

He’s also FREE at WR54 ADP.

A.J. Dillon is PFF’s fifth-highest graded running back (90.1).

The bruising back is due for major positive touchdown regression.

He finished 11th in red-zone touches and saw more carries inside the 10-yard line than Aaron Jones.

But he converted just four of those carries into scores.

After seeing insane red-zone usage down the stretch…

I’d imagine this TD number doubles in 2022 especially with Davante Adams’ yearly double-digit scores no longer part of the offense.

Rams RB Cam Akers owns an easy path to double-digit touchdowns after Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel combined for the 2nd-most RZ touches among RBs last season…

But with the lowest rushing TD% of any offense.

LA ranked top-8 in that category the 3 seasons prior.

Positive rushing TD regression is coming for Akers.

Because it’s going to be tough for Cooper Kupp (16 rec TDs) to repeat his legendary scoring production from 2021.

Of the five WRs that caught at least 16 touchdowns since 2007, they averaged just 6.6 TDs the following season.

Only two (Davante Adams, Randy Moss) were able to haul in double-digit scores.

Vikings RB Dalvin Cook’s ADP has fallen to the middle to even back of Round 1.

It’s unwarranted based on the impending touchdown regression Cook will experience.

His 15 goal-line carries ranked fourth in the NFL last season, but he converted just three into scores.

Considering Cook averaged 16 TDs from 2019 to 2020, his meager six TDs from last season look like a blip on the radar.

Also can’t forget that Adam Thielen’s 12 TDs/season over the last two is going to decrease...

For a 32-year-old WR coming off his lowest yards per route run average since 2016.

Other RBs who should easily experience positive touchdown regression

— assuming their roles stay relatively the same —

include:

Alvin Kamara
Javonte Williams
Antonio Gibson
Leonard Fournette
Miles Sanders.

Gibson’s the one that’s tough to buy into based on the team’s addition of rookie Brian Robinson in the 3rd round.

Stefon Diggs didn’t quite live up to expectations last season after an unreal 2020, but he was unlucky.

Diggs commanded the most end-zone targets in the NFL (25) — six more than the next closest receiver.

He left a lot of fantasy production on the table, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening for a 2nd consecutive season.

Per PFF’s expected TD model, Diggs scored five TDs under expectation.

Worth a late-round first round pick imo — especially in full PPR.

Kyle Pitts fell short of lofty preseason expectations with just one touchdown.

Any other pass-catcher that compiled at least 1,000 receiving yards caught at least four touchdowns.

Per PFF’s expected TD model, he should have scored 5.6 TDs.

His third-ranked 19% target share suggests he will continue to be heavily peppered with targets w/ added TD production to boot.

Health withstanding, Chris Godwin — or perhaps Russell Gage while filling in — should see more scoring opportunities next season.

D.J. Moore was the only other WR to eclipse 1,100 receiving yards and score fewer than six touchdowns than Godwin last season.

Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks.

Better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product when Pittsburgh gets better downfield quarterback play from Kenny Pickett and/or Mitchell Trubisky.

Claypool is also due for positive TD regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last szn.

The monster is no stranger to scoring, after being one of 8 rookie wide receivers to score double-digit TDs since 1998.

Easily prefer Claypool at ADP WR47 vs his teammate Diontae Johnson at WR15 ADP.

Other wide receivers/tight ends who should experience positive TD regression based on their overall target volume inside the 5-yard line include…

Zach Ertz
Gabriel Davis
Van Jefferson
Marquise Brown
CeeDee Lamb
DeVonta Smith
Darren Waller
Courtland Sutton
Marvin Jones Jr.

And if you still aren’t convinced about the importance of nailing TD regression candidates…consider this blurb I wrote about Cooper Kupp prior to last season.

It matters.

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