Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Jul 15, 2022 18 tweets 6 min read Read on X
My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate
This will be short.
If you would like to view the map (almost 220 thousand views!): google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
The Kharkiv area: Russians are reportedly losing the will to fight, they claim they have been sent on the exact identical missions for days/weeks without success and they are sick of falling into the same traps over and over again. Their offense has halted and their morale is low
The Slovyansk area: Russian forces are close to Kurulka (1), their attack today was repelled. I'm trying to find more reliable info.
The Siversk area: Russia is trying to capture Hryhorivka (2). The situation in Verkhnokamyanske is confusing to me (3). Some say Russia captured the town, but I don't see how that is possible. Others say they have entered the town, which I see as more realistic.
Russia is still attacking towards Ivano-Darivka, but the Ukrainian defenses in this area are very strong (4). Russians are entrenching themselves around Berestove and launching small offensives supported by artillery, aircraft, and drones (5).
Russia is pushing towards Yakovlivka (6). I am not sure how close they are to the town itself. I have drawn it with a wide buffer, the buffer may be much smaller or nonexistent.

Reports of Russia reaching the Gypsum quary in Soledar (7).
The Bakhmut area: Russia tried to assault Vershyna (8), the Vuhlehirska power plant (9), and Kodema (10) but were repelled in each case. From what I have read, Russia is running out of infantry in this part of the battlefield, especially near the power plant and Kodema.
The Avdiivka area: having to really zoom in here. Russia attacked Kamyanka, took some ground, and then were repelled by liberal use of Ukrainian artillery (11).
The Donetsk area: In response to Russia's terrorist attacks on other areas of Ukraine, Russia performed a terrorist attack on Donetsk (12). Russian logic. They killed multiple civilians, and, like magic, their tv crews were set up and ready to roll the second it happened.
Here are just some images of areas of the front where I have nothing to say:
This morning Russia launched 9 anti-aircraft missiles into Mykolaiv (13), damaging/destroying two schools, a hotel, a shopping mall, 12 apartment blocks, 3 private houses, an old train station, and 18 trollies (16 of which were brand new).
This afternoon, Russia fired cruise missiles into Vinnytsia. The reports on how many were fired and how many hit were conflicting, but I believe 7 were fired and 3 hit. First, I want you to realize how far this city is from the front line. 383km, 238 miles from the front line.
These are the locations of two of the missile strikes, I have tried to geolocate them as best as I can. I'm not sure where the third landed. It doesn't really matter. This terrorist attack killed 23 and wounded over 100. Three of the dead are children, including a 3 year old girl
Some of the dead were eviscerated by shrapnel. Others burned to death in their cars. People had limbs amputated by the blast. The missile struck a medical center and its parking lot.
The missiles fired are relatively accurate, they should be able to hit within 50 meters of their intended target. For reference, the hospital is 64 meters wide. Which means that Russia was intentionally targeting this hospital, or at least something very close to the hospital.
The two missiles landed a~120 meters apart, and the middle point is above this building here. What is this building? Is it a military base? No. It is a bank. A dance studio. A sound recording studio. A shoe store. Next door is a hospital. The other direction is a church.
And this isn't to diminish the missile strikes on Kharkiv, which damaged businesses and trains. And the strikes on all of the other communities and cities. It is only to highlight the blatant, unapologetic terrorism.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets

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