The Kharkiv area: Russians are reportedly losing the will to fight, they claim they have been sent on the exact identical missions for days/weeks without success and they are sick of falling into the same traps over and over again. Their offense has halted and their morale is low
The Slovyansk area: Russian forces are close to Kurulka (1), their attack today was repelled. I'm trying to find more reliable info.
The Siversk area: Russia is trying to capture Hryhorivka (2). The situation in Verkhnokamyanske is confusing to me (3). Some say Russia captured the town, but I don't see how that is possible. Others say they have entered the town, which I see as more realistic.
Russia is still attacking towards Ivano-Darivka, but the Ukrainian defenses in this area are very strong (4). Russians are entrenching themselves around Berestove and launching small offensives supported by artillery, aircraft, and drones (5).
Russia is pushing towards Yakovlivka (6). I am not sure how close they are to the town itself. I have drawn it with a wide buffer, the buffer may be much smaller or nonexistent.
Reports of Russia reaching the Gypsum quary in Soledar (7).
The Bakhmut area: Russia tried to assault Vershyna (8), the Vuhlehirska power plant (9), and Kodema (10) but were repelled in each case. From what I have read, Russia is running out of infantry in this part of the battlefield, especially near the power plant and Kodema.
The Avdiivka area: having to really zoom in here. Russia attacked Kamyanka, took some ground, and then were repelled by liberal use of Ukrainian artillery (11).
The Donetsk area: In response to Russia's terrorist attacks on other areas of Ukraine, Russia performed a terrorist attack on Donetsk (12). Russian logic. They killed multiple civilians, and, like magic, their tv crews were set up and ready to roll the second it happened.
Here are just some images of areas of the front where I have nothing to say:
This morning Russia launched 9 anti-aircraft missiles into Mykolaiv (13), damaging/destroying two schools, a hotel, a shopping mall, 12 apartment blocks, 3 private houses, an old train station, and 18 trollies (16 of which were brand new).
This afternoon, Russia fired cruise missiles into Vinnytsia. The reports on how many were fired and how many hit were conflicting, but I believe 7 were fired and 3 hit. First, I want you to realize how far this city is from the front line. 383km, 238 miles from the front line.
These are the locations of two of the missile strikes, I have tried to geolocate them as best as I can. I'm not sure where the third landed. It doesn't really matter. This terrorist attack killed 23 and wounded over 100. Three of the dead are children, including a 3 year old girl
Some of the dead were eviscerated by shrapnel. Others burned to death in their cars. People had limbs amputated by the blast. The missile struck a medical center and its parking lot.
The missiles fired are relatively accurate, they should be able to hit within 50 meters of their intended target. For reference, the hospital is 64 meters wide. Which means that Russia was intentionally targeting this hospital, or at least something very close to the hospital.
The two missiles landed a~120 meters apart, and the middle point is above this building here. What is this building? Is it a military base? No. It is a bank. A dance studio. A sound recording studio. A shoe store. Next door is a hospital. The other direction is a church.
And this isn't to diminish the missile strikes on Kharkiv, which damaged businesses and trains. And the strikes on all of the other communities and cities. It is only to highlight the blatant, unapologetic terrorism.
Sources like warspotting and lostwar withhold losses from their counts when they are not clearly identifiable. Ukraine has pivoted to using heavy bomber drones to destroy vehicles, and posts tremendous numbers of losses per day using this method.
Due to thermals and top down view these losses are only very rarely counted. And when they are counted, it can be many months later when alternate footage appears.
In short, there is not a drop in documented losses, but the methodology used by the loss aggregators is highly conservative and struggles to deal with the types of footage available at the moment. And as a result will lag behind reality.
Kurt Company says they have killed 51 and wounded 57 Russians this month. These guys are situated near Kurdyumivka, and are repelling Russian assaults across the Severskyi Donets canal. I have personally seen about 25 of those 51 killed on video, and I've geolocated around 15.
Ukrainian positions in this area are very well designed, which contribute substantially to their ability to defend. We've seen Ukrainian defenses in other areas, often superior positions, with vastly inferior design and construction fall within minutes or hours.
The main difference you see here is that their firing positions are *above ground* with *interlocking fields of fire* and *trench systems that allow defenders to rapidly displace*.
btw, a huge fraction of the damage we see done every day is not done by fpv drones, it is done by drone dropped bombs. In particular, the heavy bombers like vampire, kazhan, and nemesis. The r18 is getting increasingly popular. And we see more avengers but those are very rare.
avenger is a fixed wing bomber that carriers, i think, 5.5kg payload. most commonly the loadout is either 2-4 medium sized bombs or like 5-8 smaller bombs that it drops as a carpet bombing type thing. It is hard to aim because it is a level bomber. A dive bomber would be better
A dive bomber dropping 5kg bombs would be pretty awesome, to be honest.
Ukraine has two extremely toxic problems that should have been addressed a long time ago, but never were.
First, there is this pervasive idea that being mobilized into the military is basically a death sentence. Which is entirely untrue.
Second, there is this idea that once mobilized, you can no longer contribute to the economy. This is asinine. Of course they can. There are many models of mobilization that allow people to keep their jobs and continue working while also being trained.
For example, taking people, putting them, through a 30 day boot camp, then training them 1-2 weekend per month thereafter. They would continue to work normally. It would create a reserve force. The territorial defense force that Ukraine wanted to have but never made.