Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 15 24 tweets 7 min read
Russian Army 2010 era ammunition storage practices photo thread🧵shot with a DC Elite stupidity, money & power politics on parade chaser.

All the photos are from this link:
1/
russiatrek.org/blog/army/stor…
This is another view from May 26, 2010.

2/
Russian 125mm tank rounds.

3/
Another view of 125mm tank shells with their propellent cases.

4/
The photos at the link don't identify these shells.

I -think- from the size that they are 100mm rounds for the BMP-3.

5/
Again, there are no identifications of the shells.

Given the guy with a dolly moving a shell on the left, I think these are 203mm (8-inch) shells which mass out at 110 kg

6/
Another unlabeled photo with a rail box car right with wooden ammo boxes stacked six deep center.

The foreground with rotted wooden packaging with - yikes! - muddy as well as rusted (152mm?) shells.
7/
The above photo essay shows why the US Army 2016 handbook wrote the following (H/T @Mootality)

8/
The previous eight tweets are why Ukrainian GMLRS rockets, Tochka-U missile plus 300mm Smerch and 220 mm Uragan MLRS are causing Russian ammo detonations like this👇
9/
I was tipped that we would be seeing this sort of extended range GMLRS performance in Ukraine back on July 4th.👇

10/
And the people who tipped me off were the 'deconfliction' faction(s) in the Biden Administration.

These people have a easily templated behavior pattern toward Ukraine.
11/
The biggest is the repeatedly expressed public assumption that Ukrainians are corrupt slow/learners with endless comparisons against Iraqi & Afghan troops.

The repeated expressions that Ukraine could not operate either M-1 Abrams tanks or F-16's are par for this course.
12/
The Ukrainian human skills reality regards the M-1 Abrams are 180 degrees opposite the deconfliction faction Feb-Mar 2022 public statements

The German Pzh-2000 155mm/L52 SP gun is much harder to use & maintain (but not refuel w/o trucks) than an M-1👇
13/
Where the deconfliction crowd really screwed up was tipping off the extra range of the GMLRS to anyone listening via public US complaints that "Ukraine is using GMLRS like an area affect weapon."

The USA has a decades old adversarial weapons testing system caused
14/
...by a lot of Pentagon over promise & under performance to Congress.

So when a US Army Chief of Staff says GMLRS can reach 85 km & hit a target within 3-to-7 meters. It is based on low ball certified test performance under old rocket performance & adverse wind conditions.
14/
The DC elites screaming "Ukraine is using GMLRS like an area affect weapon" to the world told anyone at all familiar with that history the Ukrainians were accepting less accuracy for longer range from adverse wind gusts after rocket motor burn out.

15/
Near simultaneously there were public videos of Ukrainian HIMARS launchers concentrated together suggesting the need for more GMLRS missiles to strike a single target set at extended ranges through point defenses.


16/
The Ukrainian officer corps grew up on Soviet MLRS doctrine that is about plastering large areas with lots of rounds.

So of course the UA will be comfortable with using GMLRS weapons in both precision regimes & area attack regimes walking a barrage over an area.

16/
Since a lot of the Russian targets are area targets you would be programming a GMLRS pod to lay a pattern on an area.

At a longer range with degraded CEP, you simply aim all rounds at the middle and let random dispersion do the job.

So, why the drama here?
17/
My gut says 3 different factions of morons on parade for money, power & budget reasons.

1. US DoD accountants who are aghast at a $100K GMLRS being used as an area effect MLRS.

2. Ukraine publicly undercutting the de-escalation faction by being effective with it's HIMARS

18/
...when they're supposed to have Afghan/Iraqi class incompetence.

3. The DoD F-35 mafia seeing that GMLRS plus drones are simply better for battlefield interdiction role within GMLRS range. The DoD budget wars that are coming from that fact are going to be utterly nasty.

19/
You can buy 640 GMLRS rockets for the purchase cost of one F-35 airframe.

The operations cost of an F-35 delivering 640 guided munitions vs a HIMARS launcher within 85-100 km of the front line doing the same is even more upside down.

20/
You can buy the HIMARS launcher & train a launcher crew for the initial training cost of a F-35 fighter pilot.

Which is higher than an F-16 pilot.

See👇
21/
forbes.com/sites/niallmcc…
Whenever you see weird decisions in DC that make no darned sense.

That is your cue to go looking for hidden money & power reasons, because money & power are the left & right hands of politics.

22/End

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 15
The interview I did with TVP World on the battlefield impact of HIMARS/GMLRS in the Russo-Ukrainian War, & the reasons why the Russian S-400 was incapable of stopping GMLRS strikes, has been posted at the link.
1/
Since I've gotten a lot of pushback to the effect that "Trent Telenko can't be an expert on everything."

I am going to start by agreeing with that criticism. I'm not an expert.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less.
2/
I'm a retired DoD quality auditor & amateur historian.

A large part of a DoD quality auditor's skills set is developing audit methodologies to test 'expert badges' and see if they applied to the relevant contract technical specifications.

The questions you ask an
3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 14
The Ukrainian crowdsourcing of intelligence to a cellphone app early in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the non-mechanized/forced labor nature of Russian logistics, have combined to give US provided GMLRS rockets a lot of logistical targets to destroy.👇
1/6
This is one of a list of reasons why Russia is forcing Russian cell phone sim cards on Ukrainians in the occupied territories and has rerouted all landline internet in the occupied territories through Russian servers.

2/6
Yes, there are a lot of other intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance assets involved in targeting Russian depots and command centers.

But lots of Ukrainian cellphone "eyes on the ground" early in the war built an operational template of Russian Army logistics for those
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jul 9
There has been a lot of talk about dropping the Kerch Straits bridge including a proposal by former SACEUR Breedlove to drop the Kerch Strait bridge with Block 1D Harpoons.

This will not cut off Russian rail links to Crimea, even if such missiles

1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-of…
...were fully successful in knocking out the bridge.

There is also a Russian underground railway tunnel that goes with the bridge over the Kerch Straits.

2/
See:
This is a photo clip from the youtube link to give the Twitter audience an idea of this railway tunnel's size.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 8
@CehMojmir >>"Systemic shock*?! Please, stop making up terms as you go along,

Definition:

"A systemic shock is a shock to any system that perturbs a system enough to drive it out of equilibrium. [1] Systemic shocks occur in a wide range of fields,

1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemic_…
@CehMojmir ... ranging from medicine (see shock), ecology, economics to engineering. Designers of systems usually desire their systems to be able to withstand or recover from foreseeable system shocks; therefore, many systems are designed with mechanisms in place to restore an...

2/
@CehMojmir ... an equilibrium state."

Before you go around making statements which destroy yourself like that, an internet search on the term of art is in order.

4/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 8
This bridge cut is part and parcel Ukraine's anti-artillery depot logistical attacks. Ukraine is executing a "systemic shock" attack strategy by trying to first remove the biggest depots.🧵👇

Then hammering the railway distribution system as it is at peak stress trying to
1/
... replace lost shell tonnage across the occupied Ukrainian rail system.

If a lot of shell tonnage is on trains suddenly caught between bridge & rail cuts.

They are sitting duck targets for follow up GMLRS destruction.

(Maps H/T @Nrg8000)
2/ ImageImageImage
And if the Russians sent railway troops to fix all the bridges & rail cuts before sending the ammo trains.

Those troops will be targeted by GMLRS while doing repairs & Russian troops run low of Arty ammo.

"Systemic shock" is a logistical heart attack.
(H/T @KenGriffeySr1)

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 7
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips Don't be to sure of that.

Historically the US Army under reports the actual range of it's missiles by up to 20%.

Newer missiles out range older ones for reasons of solid rocket fuel chemistry.

That is, stated missile range is that for an about to time expire missile.
1/
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips The classic Cold War example of this was when the TOW missile was given an extra 750 meters of guidance wire in the late 1970's/early 1980's and this wasn't admitted to until near the end of the Cold War.

2/
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips The US Army was only admitting to a 70 km range for the GMLRS until Ukraine started using them at 85 km range against Russia.

That is the same 20% historical under reporting we saw with the TOW missile.

3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(