Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 15th. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations. Todays presentation is brought to you by Armchair Weeblord.
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

Some shellings, ill update these later.

> FIRMS Data: 2022-07-15_11:25
> Added 23 locations to kml
> Filtered 22 locations by proximity to other fires
> Removed 86 false positives

Past weather

Forecast. Mixed weather expected so FIRMS indications is not going to be optimal in the near future.

Not much to report for the northern parts so ill start with Bohorodychne. This what I think is going on. RU forces holding the high ground in the north and UA forces holding the high ground in the south. I don't think anyone has control over the town.

RU forces tried to attack Spirne, Bilohorivka, Vershyna and Kodema, "the occupiers received stiff resistance, suffered significant losses and withdrew ingloriously" according to GSUA.

The Putler fanboys claims RU forces have captured Stryapivka and Nova Kam'yanka. They even claimed they were fighting in Soledar. Red pin is geolocation of the video furthest to the west.

I have seen this claim twice in conjunction with a video of Ivan Filiponenko. Both times the video was shot in Volodymyrivka, captured by RU forces 2 months ago. This makes me believe RU forces are not controlling those two town, but are attacking in that direction.

Yesterday morning GSUA reported RU having partial success attacking Kam'yanka, but later they reported UA forces had repulsed the enemy.

Ol'hyne has been mentioned a lot recently. Shellings "near/around" to be specific. I believe UA forces have established presence in or on the outskirts of the settlement. I have adjusted the map accordingly.

I geolocated this Wargonzo video to the outskirts of Bilohorivka, Luhansk O. As usual the RU video editors are trying to make it appear as they have made more progress than they actually have by showing they sign with the town name. I do not believe they have control of the town

Source: t.me/wargonzo/7551

Serious question, did the Russians really destroy a few HIMARS? The there were so many reports of HIMARS strikes about a week ago. But now we do not see a lot of those. I'm thinking 3 different possibilities.

1. UA used all/most of the ammo provided.
2. Both RU and UA upped their OPSEC.
3. RU did actually destroy some of them and UA are now trying to figure out how not to loose more.

Thank you guys for all the responses regarding the HIMARS. I needed some help to think ♥️

List of shellings mentioned by GSUA since June 6th. Some dates are missing. There are probably doubles. The list far from perfect by it works for me.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

How to filter a column.

Here I have filtered for all the shellings of June 10th. At this point you can mark the fields like I have done here and just copy and past in to a text file. Now you have a CSV with tab separator which can be imported/processed. This is how I import the shellings to Scribblemaps

> FIRMS Data: 2022-07-15_15:54
> Added 219 locations to kml
> Filtered 281 locations by proximity to other fires
> Removed 93 false positives

Interesting FIRMS data from the Nikopol area. It seems like there is a fire on the water. This could possibly be Ru forces targeting partisan weapon transports, or it could be UA targeting RU sabotage units trying to cross.

I have looked at a bunch of geolocated videos and searched for information. As a result I have extended the RU area of control in the southern Kherson region. I have also reduced the RU area of control in the Velyka Novosilka area.

Some of the sources I remembered to bookmark. Both @neonhandrail and @5urpher are worth following if you like the whole geolocation thing and keeping track of troops etc.

https://twitter.com/5urpher/status/1547683514325143552

https://twitter.com/5urpher/status/1545865441897324545

https://t.co/wARNf5n3Fw

https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1547809134803709953

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1547957910721835009

Ukrainian forces stopped the RU attempts to try to take control over Bohorodychne.

RU forces have been attacking all along the Bakhmut front today. RU forces tried to advance on Bilogorivka UA soldiers topped these poor attempts and pushed the enemy back according to GSUA.

RU attempts to advance were also stopped in the Spirne, Vugleghirska TPP and Vershina areas.

I believe fighting is ongoing in the Volodymyrivka - Soledar area. RU channels claimed to have captured Nova Kam'yanka, but RuAF also shelled it today. I think there is fighting going on in Nova Kam'yanka and Stryapivka and because of that I don't believe anyone is in control.

If you try hard, you can possibly spot the part that is missing on the Kup'yans'k temporary railway bridge. I actually expected it to be fixed by now, but it doesn't seem so. Ill try to get some confirmation later.

I just want to say that the operational pause claimed by RU forces is a myth. The only reason RU forces aren't gaining ground is because they can't, not because they aren't trying. They only claim operation pause because they know their logistics got hurt. RU attacks today ⬇️

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1548066970808901632

Present and past. I was given a lot of shit for saying RU might allocate resources to the area. It looks like they did. I was probably also wrong about Soldats'ke.

Maybe they read my post about the pause 😂

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1548104406129729538