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Jul 15 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
The interview I did with TVP World on the battlefield impact of HIMARS/GMLRS in the Russo-Ukrainian War, & the reasons why the Russian S-400 was incapable of stopping GMLRS strikes, has been posted at the link.
1/
Since I've gotten a lot of pushback to the effect that "Trent Telenko can't be an expert on everything."

I am going to start by agreeing with that criticism. I'm not an expert.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less.
2/
I'm a retired DoD quality auditor & amateur historian.

A large part of a DoD quality auditor's skills set is developing audit methodologies to test 'expert badges' and see if they applied to the relevant contract technical specifications.

The questions you ask an
3/
...electrical engineer are different from a mechanical engineer and are different from a civil engineer.

This requires scanning thousands of pages of contracts, technical data packages, military specifications & standards for the few applicable paragraphs to put in your
4/
...audit plan.

After you execute that plan. You write a report, sweat out a summary and put together a few Powerpoint slides.

Imagine having to cram for your graduate degree orals on your paper every few days while writing & speaking it in bureaucratic passive voice
5/
...with Powerpoint slides to a panel you don't know which always finds something wrong.

Defending the audit methodology is the easy part.

The unsettling conclusions they don't want to hear is why you use the bureaucratic passive voice.
6/
And when you retire, you can stop using the passive voice. 😇

The rest of this thread lays out the resources I tapped for the TVP interview to explain why the S-400 failed to stop the GMLRS.
7/
Almaz-Antey 40R6 / S-400 Triumf
Self Propelled Air Defence System / SA-21
Technical Report APA-TR-2009-0503
by Dr Carlo Kopp, AFAIAA, SMIEEE, PEng
© 2009 - 2012 Carlo Kopp
8/
 ausairpower.net/APA-S-400-Triu…
NNIIRT 1L119 Nebo SVU / RLM-M Nebo M
Assessing Russia's First Mobile VHF AESAs
Technical Report APA-TR-2008-0402
by Dr Carlo Kopp, AFAIAA, SMIEEE, PEng
© 2008 - 2012 Carlo Kopp
9/
 ausairpower.net/APA-Nebo-SVU-A…
Warsaw Pact / Russian Air Defence Command Posts
Technical Report APA-TR-2008-0602
© 2008 - 2012 Carlo Kopp
10/
 ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-ADCP-C…
Russian / Soviet Point Defence Weapons
Technical Report APA-TR-2008-0502
by Dr Carlo Kopp, AFAIAA, SMIEEE, PEng
© 2008 - 2012 Carlo Kopp
11/
 ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-PLA-PD…
KBP 2K22/2K22M/M1 Tunguska SA-19 Grison /
96K6 Pantsir S1 / SA-22 Greyhound SPAAGM
Technical Report APA-TR-2009-0703
by Dr Carlo Kopp, AFAIAA, SMIEEE, PEng
Text © 2009-2012 Carlo Kopp
12/
 ausairpower.net/APA-96K6-Pants…
S-400 failure vs GMLRS boils down to the S-400 being built to stop the F-35 and Pershing 2 class missiles.

The 227mm dia. GMLRS is a lot smaller than the S-400's rotating 2 meter wavelength anti-stealth AESA radar can easily see nose on and it is in the air only ~150 sec.
13/
Any and all mistakes I've made in my research & that interview are mine and mine alone.

14/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 15
Russian Army 2010 era ammunition storage practices photo thread🧵shot with a DC Elite stupidity, money & power politics on parade chaser.

All the photos are from this link:
1/
 russiatrek.org/blog/army/stor…
This is another view from May 26, 2010.

2/
Russian 125mm tank rounds.

3/
Read 24 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 14
The Ukrainian crowdsourcing of intelligence to a cellphone app early in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the non-mechanized/forced labor nature of Russian logistics, have combined to give US provided GMLRS rockets a lot of logistical targets to destroy.👇
1/6
This is one of a list of reasons why Russia is forcing Russian cell phone sim cards on Ukrainians in the occupied territories and has rerouted all landline internet in the occupied territories through Russian servers.

2/6
Yes, there are a lot of other intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance assets involved in targeting Russian depots and command centers.

But lots of Ukrainian cellphone "eyes on the ground" early in the war built an operational template of Russian Army logistics for those
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 9
There has been a lot of talk about dropping the Kerch Straits bridge including a proposal by former SACEUR Breedlove to drop the Kerch Strait bridge with Block 1D Harpoons.

This will not cut off Russian rail links to Crimea, even if such missiles

1/
 thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-of…
...were fully successful in knocking out the bridge.

There is also a Russian underground railway tunnel that goes with the bridge over the Kerch Straits.

2/
 See:
This is a photo clip from the youtube link to give the Twitter audience an idea of this railway tunnel's size.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 8
@CehMojmir >>"Systemic shock*?! Please, stop making up terms as you go along,

Definition:

"A systemic shock is a shock to any system that perturbs a system enough to drive it out of equilibrium. [1] Systemic shocks occur in a wide range of fields,

1/
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemic_…
@CehMojmir ... ranging from medicine (see shock), ecology, economics to engineering. Designers of systems usually desire their systems to be able to withstand or recover from foreseeable system shocks; therefore, many systems are designed with mechanisms in place to restore an...

2/
@CehMojmir ... an equilibrium state."

Before you go around making statements which destroy yourself like that, an internet search on the term of art is in order.

4/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 8
This bridge cut is part and parcel Ukraine's anti-artillery depot logistical attacks. Ukraine is executing a "systemic shock" attack strategy by trying to first remove the biggest depots.🧵👇

Then hammering the railway distribution system as it is at peak stress trying to
1/
... replace lost shell tonnage across the occupied Ukrainian rail system.

If a lot of shell tonnage is on trains suddenly caught between bridge & rail cuts.

They are sitting duck targets for follow up GMLRS destruction.

(Maps H/T @Nrg8000)
2/ ImageImageImage
And if the Russians sent railway troops to fix all the bridges & rail cuts before sending the ammo trains.

Those troops will be targeted by GMLRS while doing repairs & Russian troops run low of Arty ammo.

"Systemic shock" is a logistical heart attack.
(H/T @KenGriffeySr1)

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 7
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips Don't be to sure of that.

Historically the US Army under reports the actual range of it's missiles by up to 20%.

Newer missiles out range older ones for reasons of solid rocket fuel chemistry.

That is, stated missile range is that for an about to time expire missile.
1/
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips The classic Cold War example of this was when the TOW missile was given an extra 750 meters of guidance wire in the late 1970's/early 1980's and this wasn't admitted to until near the end of the Cold War.

2/
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips The US Army was only admitting to a 70 km range for the GMLRS until Ukraine started using them at 85 km range against Russia.

That is the same 20% historical under reporting we saw with the TOW missile.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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