1/7
Day 4 & 5 of #RWRI17
▪️Losses from a series of mediocristan risk events are highly predictable, given that they are IID (car accidents). The extremistan risks are catastrophes that cascade into even more risky events. Their aggregate losses are difficult to evaluate.
Day 4 & 5 of #RWRI17
▪️Losses from a series of mediocristan risk events are highly predictable, given that they are IID (car accidents). The extremistan risks are catastrophes that cascade into even more risky events. Their aggregate losses are difficult to evaluate.
2/7
▪️Catastrophic events violate LLN by nonlinearity and dependence, therefore losses cannot be calculated through CLT.
▪️1+a & 1-a. Perturbate your current position by +-a. If you are much better off in the +a position than the loss of -a, you are anti-fragile.
▪️Catastrophic events violate LLN by nonlinearity and dependence, therefore losses cannot be calculated through CLT.
▪️1+a & 1-a. Perturbate your current position by +-a. If you are much better off in the +a position than the loss of -a, you are anti-fragile.
3/7
▪️If the average of your payoffs in the 1+a and 1-a exceeds your current payoff, you are anti-fragile.
▪️antifragility is convexity.
▪️Most papers bullshit with correlation and p-value.
▪️If the average of your payoffs in the 1+a and 1-a exceeds your current payoff, you are anti-fragile.
▪️antifragility is convexity.
▪️Most papers bullshit with correlation and p-value.
4/7
▪️Generate random X and Y variables. There will be a non-zero correlation with non-zero probability simply due to randomness. Think about it twice when somebody finds 99.6% correlation between female infidelity and new Nassim Taleb workout pics.
tylervigen.com/spurious-corre…
▪️Generate random X and Y variables. There will be a non-zero correlation with non-zero probability simply due to randomness. Think about it twice when somebody finds 99.6% correlation between female infidelity and new Nassim Taleb workout pics.
tylervigen.com/spurious-corre…
5/7
▪️Heavy tails cannot be studied by the same mechanisms thin tails are.
▪️IQ is a measure of stupidity (of those who believe in it). Any IQ of 105+ tells you nothing about how one is performing outside of testing environments like universities.
⬇️ Income in terms of IQ
▪️Heavy tails cannot be studied by the same mechanisms thin tails are.
▪️IQ is a measure of stupidity (of those who believe in it). Any IQ of 105+ tells you nothing about how one is performing outside of testing environments like universities.
⬇️ Income in terms of IQ
6/7
▪️The tragedy of the big data is that the more data and variables your system has, more spurious correlation emerges. Big data can tell us what's wrong, not what's right.
▪️The tragedy of the big data is that the more data and variables your system has, more spurious correlation emerges. Big data can tell us what's wrong, not what's right.
7/7
▪️Astrologists are more competent than psychologists, at least they get the basics of marketing psychology.
Fellow colleagues, if you want @nntaleb to let @RDouady speak, team up! Tweet the hashtag #letraphaeldouadytalk
▪️Astrologists are more competent than psychologists, at least they get the basics of marketing psychology.
Fellow colleagues, if you want @nntaleb to let @RDouady speak, team up! Tweet the hashtag #letraphaeldouadytalk
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