Much of CA & NV has had a fairly mild start to summer--especially in the northern third of state, which even received some late-season precip and some locally below average temperatures over the past month or so. Well, that's all about to change across the interior... #CAwx
A huge ridge of high pressure will expand westward from its current position near center of continent (where it has been bringing record heat to Texas). This will bring an extremely broad region of hotter than usual temperatures to the entire western 2/3 of the country. #CAwx
While a persistent Four Corners ridge, plus hot temps, are typical for mid summer--this ridge will be significantly broader & stronger than usual even for mid-late July. By late July, much hotter than usual temperatures could extend from Pacific Coast to Great Plains! #CAwx
At this time, it is not entirely clear just how hot it will get. Prolonged extreme heat, possibly record breaking, will be possible in some portion of western 2/3 of U.S. during this period. But at the moment, that looks more likely over Great Plains vs West Coast.
In California, the first wave of heat will affect the interior this weekend before relenting somewhat by mid-week. But the secondary heat peak beginning around 10 days from now and continuing for at least 7+ days may be much more consequential and prolonged. #CAwx#CAfire
This heatwave will be remarkable more for its great spatial extent and duration as opposed to its maximum intensity (though again, that could perhaps change, as some ensemble members are suggesting the potential for even hotter conditions). #CAwx#CAfire
The combination of widespread hotter-than-usual conditions and a depressed monsoon over the next ~2 weeks will likely accelerate fire season across drought-stricken interior western forests, including the Sierra Nevada. #CAfire
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The images and stories just beginning to emerge from eastern TN and western NC in the aftermath of widespread catastrophic flooding wrought by #Helene are genuinely horrifying, and the full scale of the disaster is likely as yet untold. #TNwx #NCwx [Thread: 1/n]
20-30 inches--and perhaps locally 40+ inches--of rain fell along highest ridges of the Southern Appalachians due to 1-2 punch consisting of extreme "predecessor rain event" (PRE) that was historic in its own right followed by further extreme rain directly from #Helene. [2/n]
This was, by far, the most extreme rain event in observed record across much/most of the region, where reliable records date back over 100 yrs. Unsurprisingly, the flooding which resulted has also been widespread, historic, and generally catastrophic across a broad region. [3/n]
For the first time since June in many parts of California and the broader Southwest, *cooler* than average temperatures can be expected for the next week, thanks in part to arrival of a *second* anomalously deep August low pressure system over NorCal Thu/Fri. #CAwx [1/4]
Another round of widespread rain & possible t-storms will occur in western WA & OR. In far NorCal, esp. northern mtns (Shasta region), some decent showers & t-storms are possible. Few showers/isolated thunder may reach farther south than last event--locally to I-80 corridor. #ORwx #WAwx #CAwx [2/4]
All of this will be fortuitous for fire season in western Washington and Oregon--mainly west of Cascades. While active fires will continue to east of Cascades, this may be season-ending precip (or close to it) for western WA and NW OR. #ORwx #WAwx [3/4]
For folks in Colorado wondering what the heck is going on with #Xcel's large-scale pre-emptive power line de-energization to avoid wildfire ignitions during high wind events, I wanted to share a some thoughts as a scientist who studies climate/weather/wildfire. #COwx [1/n]
The first utility-scale "Public Safety Power Shut-offs" (#PSPS) in response to fire risk of which I'm aware began in 2010s in California in response to catastrophic wildfire events in urban interface sparked by power infrastructure during extreme fire weather/wind events. [2/n]
Such fires occur when energized lines fall to ground or trees fall onto live wires (igniting vegetation). They tend to be preferentially dangerous precisely because they occur under "worst case" conditions, when weather favors rapid spread & fire suppression is ineffective. [3/n]
I wanted to reiterate some recent findings from our own research specifically addressing extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in a warming climate.
1) CA will more extreme ARs in a warming climate, mainly (~80%) due water vapor increases. #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
2) Extreme CA ARs in a warming climate will not only be more intense, but they may also have preferentially more southerly (deep subtropical) origins (like present one!). #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
3) Integrated vapor transport, a measure of AR intensity, may increase at a "super Clausius-Clapeyron" rate (>>7%/C), especially over Southern California! #CAwx #CAwater science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Scientific institutions must create--and sustain--new kinds of roles so that researchers can provide the deep public engagement necessary to respond effectively to the escalating impacts of #climate change. The status quo isn't working. [Thread: 1/n] nature.com/articles/d4158…
My own role as a climate scientist-communicator is highly unusual in the academic world: I'm a practicing scientist who spends a large fraction (now over half) of my time engaging the public, and the rest of my time actually conducting research and writing papers. [2]
That engagement takes many forms. This year, I've given over 200 news interviews & worked with outlets behind the scenes to develop their coverage. I also work with state/federal agencies, brief members of state/national legislatures, and more. [3]
If you've been wondering why I've been somewhat less visible here, that's partly because of the "shifting winds" of social media. But also, I've been spending much effort scrambling to find some way to support my climate scientist-communicator role moving forward.
Thus far, I have not yet been successful in these efforts--& if nothing changes, the time left in my current role may unfortunately be limited. A great number of individuals & organizations have voiced support--and I'm hugely grateful for that!--but ultimately a large gap looms.
I'm still optimistic that something will arise in the coming months! But operating in this kind of highly public-facing climate science role unfortunately seems to fall between the cracks of existing institutions and funders. And ultimately, the status quo is not sustainable.