Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Jul 15, 2022 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Kinda a halfassed daily update today because I'm busy with other stuff. If you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
I spent a bunch of time today trying to find where artillery is landing around Kharkiv. Just in the front lines, I ignored the city and the more rear areas. There were some areas that had, ahem, clouds. So.
I did the same around the Slovyansk area. All the areas that didn't have clouds, anyway. Russia is trying to establish total control over Bohorodychne, but they have been unable to achieve this.
There were rumors of Ukraine trying to push an attack across the river east of Bohorodychne and the attacking having failed. However, I cannot understand why Ukraine would do this?
The Siversk area: The area of control around Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Verkhnokamyanske are all confusing to me. I believe Verkhnokamyanske is a no-mans land. I didn't have as much time to place arty markers in this area because I focus on Kharkiv.
The north of Bakhmut area: Relentless Ukrainian artillery fire is stopping Russian attacks. Russians are trying to attack Spirne, Nahirne, Bilohorivka, and Yakovlivka. The Yakovlivka attack might be doing the best, but the other three were driven off by artillery.
The Bakhmut area: Russians are trying to attack Soledar, but they are stuck fighting around the Gypsum mine and suffering Ukrainian artillery hits. I've heard no news about them attacking towards Pokrovske, they may have decided it was hopeless and turned north.
The south of Bakhmut area: Russian infantry in this area are reportedly low in numbers (according to Russian sources), and they have been awaiting reinforcements for weeks. Maybe they have gotten these reinforcements, I am not sure.
The Russians are attempting the same attacks day after day, they keep attacking the same locations from the same angles. Towards Vershyna, towards the power plant, towards Kodema. And every day they suffer losses, and Ukraine keeps reinforcing the positions.
South of Donetsk: The news here I find somewhat confusing. Firstly, this area of the battlefield I know the least about. Full stop. I am not even really sure where I draw the front line is the front line. I almost never get updates from here.
A few days ago Russia admitted that Ukraine recaptured Solodke. I regularly read about artillery and air strikes on Ukrainian positions around Volodymyrivka, Mykilske, and Blahodatne, which is why I have the lines drawn this way.
Today, Russia conducted attacks from the direction of Solodke towards Vodyane, and from Volodymyrivka towards Vodyane. So I have drawn these arrows. Supposedly, Russians suffered large casualties and were driven away by Ukrainian artillery.
Furthermore, Russia attack Pavlivka from Yehorivka, which is an attack vector I am much more acquainted with, and they again suffered high casualties and withdrew.
The Kherson/Mykolaiv area, here is an overview of the whole area.
The northern part: Russia is firing artillery and conducting airstrikes around Olhyne, which suggests Ukrainian presence. It appears the strikes are all north of the town, which is logical based upon known Ukrainian positions. We could see Ukraine capture this gray area soon.
The middle of this Kherson area: We see increasing Ukrainian artillery fire. They have been taking out Russian logistics in this area, attacking fortified areas, and presumably using counter artillery fire.
The Mykolaiv/Kherson cities: Russian artillery fire is noticeably lesser. Russia fired 10 missiles into Mykolaiv today, attacking universities and a hospital. It is harder to identify Ukrainian artillery in this region (especially because of cloudy satellite imagery).
Russians are pushing forces and heavy equipment into the area of the nuclear power plant in Enerhodar. This includes hundreds of infantry and Tochka-U ballistic missiles. It is clear they are trying to provoke a Ukrainian attack on the power plant.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Mar 30
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.

This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.

Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.

These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.Image
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Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.

This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.Image
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 8
The military analysis of Iran has been the absolute worst military analysis I have ever seen in my entire life.
There have been times where I listen to some "expert" where almost every word they say in the entire interview is factually wrong. Some of these people are so wrong that I feel like you could have a big box of words and reach in and draw them randomly and it be more factual.
To prove my point, I just asked a LLM to analyze the form of a normal military interview on cable news and using strictly randomly generated words and no access to the actual news please give me a report on what's going on in Ian (unironically, this is what LLMs are good at, probably, just lying about shit):::

From an operational standpoint, the expanding American strike corridor may complicate Iran’s layered coastal defenses, which could scatter missile batteries inland.

At the tactical level, the Iranian drone screen might disrupt a forward U.S. maneuver package, which could stall momentum along the maritime axis.

From the broader battlefield geometry, the concentrated American carrier posture may pressure Iran’s southern command network, which could trigger rapid repositioning of defensive units.

Right now on the ground, the reinforced Iranian coastal belt might absorb the initial U.S. probing attacks, which could slow the opening phase of the campaign.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 23
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 11, 2025
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3, 2025
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 1, 2025
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Read 4 tweets

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