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David Ingles Profile picture
@DavidInglesTV
Jul 16, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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This is a super important story right now. Every single economist I’ve had on shows is following this extremely closely.

bloomberg.com/news/storythre… Image
Chinese banks reported late last week extent of bad loans related to this specific exposure. The banks said risks are controllable.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
The broader issue is weakness in China’s housing market. Prices have been rolling over for 10 straight months. Easy to see why some property developers are running into cashflow issues, both from operating and financing activities.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Interbank rates in China are the lowest in at least 18 months. As many analysts and the central bank itself have pointed out, there is no issue around the liquidity per se. Image
China is urging its banks to lend to property developers so they can complete unfinished housing projects. The banking regulator issued the guidance to defuse a growing consumer boycott of mortgage payments.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Goldman Sachs discussing arguably the core underlying issue: a weak housing market and some lingering issues around financing options
What’s the short-term solution to these mortgage boycotts we’re seeing in some parts of China housing market? Goldman Sachs weighs in
Solid rally in Chinese bank and property stocks Monday. Image
JUST IN: China is said to consider allowing hundreds of thousands of homeowners to temporarily halt mortgage payments on stalled property projects. Proposal is yet to be finalised.

Details in link
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
On mortgage delinquency exposure of the big Chinese banks. Takeaway: Not a major problem at this point for the the big lenders but it could be a big one for the local, rural ones.

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More from @DavidInglesTV

David Ingles Profile picture
May 20, 2024
The China housing market story in charts. A thread.

Chinese property stocks are on an epic, four-week tear. Last week, the index rallied 23%, best week in ~16 months Image
Chinese property stocks have rallied 75% over just a few weeks. Here's a crazier stat. After that 75% rally, share prices overall remain 75% below the 2018 peak Image
On valuations, China property stocks have recovered from trading near 15% of book value to nearer 30% now (book value = "book" = net liquidation value) Image
Read 7 tweets
David Ingles Profile picture
Apr 19, 2024
Something’s triggering a massive move out of risk assets and into havens right now.

Gold, Yen up. Oil up. US futures drop


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APAC stocks -1.6% Image
We’re still trying to piece together all this chatter. Stand by. For now 👇🏽
Read 4 tweets
David Ingles Profile picture
Jan 6, 2023
Breaking News: China is planning to relax leverage restrictions among property developers. This refers to the "Three Red Lines" and may constitute a MAJOR shift in policy.

Details soon. Markets turning.
Copper moving too after the breakings news on China's property sector.
The major breaking news today out of China.

China may relax its "Three Red Lines" leverage restrictions on property developers, potentially signaling a major shift in policy.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
David Ingles Profile picture
Jan 4, 2023
Alibaba up 8%. China tech rallies alongside $BABA

Why? Chinese officials gave Ant the greenlight to raise capital

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
China property stocks surging.

Bloomberg scoop that China is weighing ways to shore up the balance sheets of "too-big-to-fail" developers

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
China education-related stocks are rallying hard.

People's Daily editorial touting the importance of vocational schools edu.gmw.cn/2023-01/03/con… Image
Read 4 tweets
David Ingles Profile picture
Sep 26, 2022
UK Gilts start trading in 5 minutes and I'm afraid to even look
Goodness. Gilts are getting slammed against a wall. Yields up 20BPS across THE ENTIRE CURVE
Insane. Gilt curve's shifted 30-40BPS higher from Friday. THE ENTIRE CURVE. 2-year is up 42BPS!
Read 5 tweets
David Ingles Profile picture
Mar 29, 2021
Just a few examples of some vessels that have changed course and headed the long way around Africa.
Current snapshot of pretty much all the vessels (tankers, dry cargo/passenger, bulk carriers specifically) out there right now.

Map from @TheTerminal
Check out the build up of ships on both sides of the Suez Canal + location of Ever Given (it's still there).
Read 4 tweets

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