Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My daily update? #ukrdailupdate

Not very much is happening so I am just showing the changes to my map. To see the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

First, the Dibrovne/Kurulka area: There were rumors that Russia attacked and perhaps captured Kurulka recently, but that claim went contrary to all evidence and information I have available to me so I have decided to reverse that map change and make Dibrovne a gray area.

The Vuhlehirska power plant area: I updated Russian control to be closer to plant (1,2). I know Russia controls intersection of E40 highway (3) but I don't know of any Russian gained territory to the west from there. I updated the Ukrainian line of control in Novoluhanske (4).

I have seen people claim Russia is attacking Semyhirya (6) from the east, and I believe this stems from a since debunked rumor that the Wagner group had captured it many weeks ago. Who debunked the claim? The Wagner group. I don't know or believe Wagner is even attacking it.

I believe the DPR is attacking, and that means the attack is coming from the south, from Dolomitne. This change in assessment dramatically changes the understanding of the situation, if Wagner were attacking, that would imply the powerplant is nearly surrounded (as in this image)

I have not seen any word that Wagner has even crossed the highway, at least not to a significant extent. I have heard only that they got to the highway, control the intersection, and are trying to move towards Vershyna. Nothing about them also going south, let alone that far west

Furthermore, every single Russian source I have seen talking about this power plant area (both east and especially west) specifically mentions the DPR forces being drained of infantry and struggling to find enough men to attack Kodema and Novoluhanske.

I could be wrong about this, maybe I missed some vital information, but I am running on the best information I have available. If you think I am wrong, send me some info about Wagner attacking this far west.

Speaking of Wagner, just a tad north of this power plant area there is the town of Klynove. Wagner is trying to push towards Vesela Dolyna from here, but they are under constant heavy Ukrainian artillery fire and they are being forced to fight through 8+ year old entrenchments.

I have not heard any news about them crossing the highway in their attempt to reach Vesela Dolyna. In fact, on the contrary, I have heard that Wagner is digging in and building defenses in Klynove.

South of Donetsk: I have pulled back the Ukrainian line of control from the Blahodatne area and created some more gray area. I also pulled Russian control away from Mykilske and created gray area there.

I have very little news about this area, and frankly I think there are exceptionally few forces on either side. The forces that exist I believe are concentrated in Pavlivka and Yehorivka. And those two areas at the only settlements here that I have any confidence in mapping.

South of Kryvyi Rih and north of Kherson, near Zelenodolsk: I made a more coherent area of Ukrainian control near Olhyne and Vysokopillya. I believe Ukraine will attack and capture these towns soon. Well, Vysokopillya is almost totally destroyed, but.. you know..

I also updated these areas around Kharkiv. Beyond these changes, I really have no interesting news to share. It is just Russia attacking the same places with the same results. You can read my update from yesterday or the day before that or the day before that and its all the same

@threadreaderapp unroll

I forgot to add this part: Today I read a report that many Russian defensive positions on the eastern side of the Zaporizhzhia front consist of fewer than 100 infantry and a single artillery battery.