Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update, we should know soon the effectiveness of Ukraine's ranged attacks on Russian logistics. So far the signs are that they have restricted the amount of concentrated Russian artillery fire--which if it continues represents an important point in the war.

On the ground in Ukraine the line has hardly moved for 2 weeks, since the Ukrainian Army pulled out of Lysychansk. Here is the picture today in the most exposed part of the Donbas and on.. Note how Ukrainian resistance is built on 3 cities, Siversk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk.

Here is the situation on July 3. Pretty much identical (maps done by @War_Mapper So in two weeks the Russians have barely made a forward movement.

Now Putin did say the Russian Army would undergo a pause on July 4/5. However they very much tried to continue with heavy ranged firepower for days afterwards. Some of the heaviest Russian shelling of the war happened in the Donbas between July 5-9.

If you compare a 5-day map of Firms fire in the Donbas from July 5-9 and 10-14 they basically show Russian ranged fire declining enormously (and much of the fire you see in the second picture is Ukrainian ranged fire on Russian lines)

So actually, Putin's pause might not have been entirely voluntary, as the Russians tried very hard to keep up ranged fire for 5 days after it was announced, and then it collapsed. Certainly one assumes that the destruction of ammo dumps in the Donbas played a role in this.

However the best evidence that its made a difference has been in the last few days, as the Russians have tried to ramp fire back up. There has been an uptick in Russian fire in the Donbas, but they cant (so far) manage anything like the fire they made before July 9.

On a one day comparison, here is what they managed yesterday (July 16) and on July 8. Overall rate of fire is well down.

What seems to have happened is a 3 step process. 1) The Ukrainians started heavily targeting Russian logistics in the Donbas in early July. Here is an @TheEconomist map.

2) That did not fully affect Russian ammo fire in the Donbas until July 9--why? Because the Ukrainians (smartly) went after the large depots in the rear first. The Russians would still have had the ammo in the smaller forward depots, which would have kept them supplied for days.

3) Now that the Russians are trying to build up fire, they are having greater trouble, as their large depot system is suffering. There are reports that they are trying to rush ammo to the front which would explain the more sporadic nature of their fire.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1548282671490510849?s=20&t=pWj0gHK6dVpXN-YjF9Ki-g

What we need to see now is whether they can maintain anything like the fire of pre-July 9 in the coming days. If they cant, more than likely the Ukrainian depot/logistics assaults are taking a now measurable toll on their capabilities.

Seems as good a place as any for this.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1548640729743990784

For what its worth, Russian ranged fire seems very low today in the Donbas. Here is a Firms picture covering the whole theater, and one covering the Sloviansk-Siversk-Bakhmut area where its assumed Russia will make its next effort. Still much lower fire than before July 9.

Here is the firms map of the Sloviansk-Siversk-Bakhmut triangle. If anything, less than yesterday, though there are a few more hours in the day. So far, doesnt seem to be much of a ramping up of Russian fire, but its early days.

Great map by @DefMon3 , if Russia is moving the rail offload point out of HIMARS range they will de-train here. Will double the time needed to resupply. (the rumor is that the Ukrainians are firing HIMARS effectively beyond the expected max range as it is )

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1548684752135364608?s=20&t=ZP4VgWivM9ZCrHW7RbetUQ