Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 17th. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations. Todays presentation is brought to you by:

The Kremlin DickTator and Akhmat Sila erotic clothing, in a some what peculiar position.

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

36 Locations of shellings reported this morning by UA General Staff.

Early FIRMS. Usually flares up around 1500 cet.

Ukraine is holding the door in the Sivers'k direction. RuAF are stopped in the area of Bilohorivka (L oblast) and Verkhn'okam'yanka. RU forces have been failing to cross the T1302 in the area of Berestove and Bilohorivka (D oblast) for over a months not, that did not change today

The orcs can not conquer the Luhansk region and they are loosing strength. They have also tried to adapt to the HIMARS situation by using "on demand" delivery with cars(trucks?) for ammunition instead of building storages.
t.me/serhiy_hayday/…
@serhey_hayday

I have also read reports about RU using civilian organizations to work in ammo storages.
Pro Russian support organizations "Naslediye" and "Young Republic" supposedly lost 23 people in the attack on a ammo storage in Shakhtars'k about a week ago.

Apparently there is more of this. h/t @acidicsweetie

https://twitter.com/acidicsweetie/status/1548615976769523712

The local clown school.

Another one of the Russian lies. HIMARS have screwed them over to the point of them having to lie about destroying them with 1980s quality videos.

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1548643715534802945

Here you can get an idea of what the launcher looks like from above. Even with that Russian video quality, you can clearly see it's not a HIMARS.

Even if the commercial drone footage quality exceeds the RU military grade footage by decades, you can clearly see on these images that what we see in the video is not a HIMARS.

Im not going to speculate what kind of truck it is. We do not even know it got hit since the RU videos cuts and only show smoke/fire. The type of truck is not relevant, the purpose was to prove they lied, which I believe I did.

UA have 24/7 Air defense coverage around the HIMARS. If they even suspect the presence of a drone, the would drive them out of range for anything the Russians have. Or keep driving until it is clear to hide them.

RU forces are moving the train offload points out of HIMARS range, this image gives an indication of how this affects delivery times.

The conclusion is the transport times have doubled, so they need twice the amount of trucks to be able to keep up the rate of delivery.

Actually does it mean twice the amount of trucks? 1 truck load is still 1 truck load. This depends on if they did more than one roundtrip before i guess. If they only did 1 round trip per day before, they can still do 1 round trip per day.

Anyway, I assume this is excellent news for all the partisans in the Melitopol area, they can now shoot at Urals instead of armored trains.

Another effect of the HIMARS is they probably need to move back their fuel storages. This means fuel trucks running the same route as the ammo Trucks. Making great targets for small caliber weapons.

All those extra transports will double the fuel consumption for the support units, so that will be an additional problem for the RU logistics. h/t @VictorishB123 for brining up the fuel issue.

Now imagine the impact of 300km weapons. Assuming UA could be provided with enough of them.

Krasnodar-Kherson is a 650km drive for a total of 1300km. At an average of 50km/h this round trip would take 26 hours to drive nonstop. So that solution is out of the question. The only option is to operate within range of the HIMARS.

Updated shellings reported by GSUA. 80 locations.

We had two out of bounds shellings today. Near Svitlodars'k and near Vesele. It is not necessarily an indicator of UA progress, but its reason to pay extra attention to those areas.

FIRMS Data: 2022-07-17_18:27
Added 111 locations to kml
Filtered 176 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 89 false positives

RU forces keep throwing cannon fodder at the Bakhmut front line to try to find a weakness in the UA defense, without success. Ukraine is holding the door.

Additional attempts to advance was made in the Pavlivka, Novomykhailivka and Mykhailivka area. "They were repulsed and ingloriously managed to escape" according to GSUA. I can not find a location for Mykhailivka at this moment.

@TpyxaNews, you are welcome. It doesn't hurt you to credit the creator every now and then.

Russian positions in the forest west of Izium.

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1548560371442626561

Possibly 120-PM-43.

Position with a 5000m range indicator for approximate mortar range. My guess is they are targeting the UA crossing in the area. Mortar location: 49.27099, 37.01185

Russia relocated a significant number of ships from Sevastopol to their other naval base in the black sea, Novorossiysk. Could this possibly have to do with ATACMS range, and them being afraid of a secret delivery? Source t.me/insiderUKR/369…