Having now read this most recent @usosce summary report 3 times yesterday and again once this morning, I've tried to wrap my head around Russian military actions in Ukraine.
The US rep to @OSCE is @mikercarpenter, a man I deeply respect from previous interactions.
Having served many years in Europe, I have deep appreciation & respect for the very difficult mission the Commission has executed over the years.
Here's a summary of what OSCE does. 2/
It originated in a mid-1975 Conference held in Helsinki & it was created as a forum to discuss issues between the eastern & western bloc during the cold war. 57 countries participate.
The OSCE helps in conflict prevention, crisis management, & post-conflict rehabilitation. 3/
In effect, their primary mission is to prevent conflict, but they also contribute to arms control, promotion of human rights, free and fair elections, protection of the free press.
Since 2014, after the MH17 shootdown & the RU invasion, they've had steady presence in Ukraine.4/
This report on and evidence of war crimes committed by RU is staggering:
-Systemic, planned, deliberate & indiscriminate attacks on civilians
-Establishment of formal torture chambers & extrajudicial executions
-Mass forcible transfer & use of "filtration centers" 5/
-Widespread mass rapes & indiscriminate murders, including these acts against 100's of children
-Approved looting & resale of stolen personal property
-Conscription of Ukrainians to fight AGAINST their fellow citizens
-Use of banned weapons against UA & Ukraine citizens 6/
-Precision targeting of hundreds of protected infrastructure: Schools, hospitals, water and energy plants, military medical treatment centers
-The theft of thousands of tons of grain as part of a with a planned attempt to exacerbate famine in other regions/countries. 7/
All wide-scale & flagrant breaches of the rules of land warfare & established international law...and morality:
It is relatively easy to tie all these acts to specific violations of International Humanitarian Law under the Geneva Conventions & its additional protocols. 8/
Sherman is alleged to have said: "War is hell." Those who've experienced it - who have the responsibility of command & waging war - know that's true.
But one of the many jobs of military leaders is to "control violence."
Morality, law, training & discipline requires it. 9/
Unfortunately, there will always be conflict. But societies & humanity have evolved & attempted to reduce human suffering through:
-Trained & disciplined professional armies
-Leader accountability
-Precision weapons
-Laws & protocols
-Advanced in human morality & decency 10/
Every army will have individuals who violate these laws and standards of discipline within their ranks.
In combat, I had several instances where I had to discipline those who did.
But what Russia is doing is widespread, inherent in their actions, blessed by their leaders. 11/
That's why Putin must remain a pariah on the world stage...forever. No coming back.
That's why RU commanders must be held accountable for criminal action. "Lack of knowledge" or "just following orders" aren't excuses.
No deliberations or cease fires, continued support. 12/12
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It is 11 July, the 138th day of Russia's illegal war in Ukraine.
My last 🧵on the war was 20 June (below), written when it appeared to me the tide was beginning to shift. Today it's time for an update, with some additional predictions for the next few weeks. 1/18
As always, I'll provide two caveats:
-this assessment is based on open-source intel, some friends in the theater of war, experiences as a commander in combat & an understanding of the RU and UA way of war.
-I'll use other's maps & reporting in this assessment. 2/
There's also less "kinetic" activity on the battle lines in the last week...
RU claims:
-They're in their latest "operational pause" (by my count, this is their 4th).
-They're "consolidating" in newly "secured" territory (use of "s due to those claims being questionable). 3/
After several weeks of travel, I was going to do an update thread on Ukraine today.
But the below conversation on Fox News, AFN & what's shown on military bases - shared with @RadioFreeTom - is an opportunity to share some facts...and some thoughts.
Been traveling the last 14 days…some work in Europe & a family event in the US. Brought this stuffed animal back home with me.
This is Dino, and he has a story. 1/9
The night I left for Desert Shield in 1990, I went to kiss our littlest son goodbye while he slept.
But he was awake, and his arm came out from under the blanket and he shoved his favorite stuffed toy at me.
“Dad, take Dino, he’ll keep you safe!” 2/
Well, that little stuffed dinosaur went through Desert Shield and Desert Storm with me, then a few months more when the war was over, sleeping in my rucksack in the back of my Bradley Fighting Vehicle as part of the Division’s Cavalry Squadron. 3/
Make no mistake, the Russian attack on the Kremenchuk shopping mail was both barbaric and criminal, as it was not a military target but a strike on civilians.
But those calling for Patriots or Iron Domes do not understand how those systems work. Here's a short explainer. 1/8
Both those systems are long range air defense, but they provide POINT not AREA DEFENSE capabilities.
What's that mean?
These extremely expensive systems are made of of 4 large components systmes. They identify & intercept aircraft or missiles INBOUND to a SPECIFIC TARGET. 2/
In other words, a commander places these systems around something they want to defend...a city, a specific important facility, a troop formation.
These systems ARE NOT lined up along a border to provide a protective shield.
He'll be hosted from 26-28 June at the G7 summit by Chancellor Scholz of Germany (they'll be at Schloss Elmau, photo below)
A beautiful location in the Bavarian forest, between Garmisch-Partenkirchen & Mittenwald (and a great biking route). 1/8
This is Biden's 4th trip to Europe in 18 months, showing his priority of revitalizing allied & partner cooperation.
Since taking office, several recent surveys & polls from all the EU nations have shown an increased trust & confidence in US leadership. pewresearch.org/global/2021/06… 2/
There are several big ticket items associated with this G7 conference:
-EU and Global security
-Economic issues linked to COVID recovery; food & energy security
-Climate
-Cyber
-Migration & immigration
-Countering transnational threat effects on economies
3/
I've been hesitant to write a 🧵on the current tactical situation & what might happen next. But @DAlperovitch's view of potential outcomes (RT below) cause me to weigh in.
His view is plausible, but I don't believe it accurately portrays the current situation. 1/
In both the Donbas & Kherson, it appears the RU are following their playbook.
1. Russian Massive Arty barrages 2. Russian Attempts Recon in Force (RIF) 3. Russian targets civilians 4. RU focus on logistics build/regeneration 5. RU lacks Combined Arms Operation action 2/
At the same time, UKR is required to slightly adapt their tactics & operational design
1. UA conducts close counterfire fight vs RU arty 2. UA thwarts RU RIF 3. UA incorporating arms & logistics from West 4. UA employs limited Combined Arms capability. 3/