#ClimateChangeNow THREAD

Hurricane #Estelle has spun up & grown into a massive 800k wide storm.

Whilst #Estelle is expected to remain over open water its impact on the Tropical Mega-Atmospheric river mean it's impacts will be felt in East Asia 13k kms away.
I discussed this in my thread 13 days ago which takes a deep dive into the relationship between a more extreme tropical rain belt and #extremeweather globally.
#Estelle is stronger than models had expected four days ago ,and is currently forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Like Hurricane Darby (which remains active) take a fairly straight trajectory keeping it away from coastal North America.
#Estelle's genesis was remarkable shown here transitioning from a drepression into a storm on Friday.
And 12 hours later #Estelle became a Hurricane.
#Estelle is forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane in the next 12 hours and a Major Hurricane within 24 hours and to remain at Major Hurricane strength for 48 hours after that.
#Estelle is also huge in size with intense convective bands extending 400kms from her center already, even though no eye has yet formed. She is - in summary - an extraordinary convection engine, delivering vast amounts of water vapour into the upper atmosphere.
In my thread back on Wednesday I looked at what the impact of all the additional water #Estelle is now generating would have in East Asia. The image below is an update of the GFS3 atmospheric water forecast from the quoted tweet below.
With more water than originally expected flowing into the system, the expected outcome is significantly worse.
Left. Forecast of a super typhoon hitting Shanghai Aug. 2nd
Right. Forecast (13/7) of relatively minor storm arriving 25/7.
Here are the two model forecasts two days apart. The latest forecast shows a massive slow moving storm similar to #Infa which struct China last July.
WARNING NOTE: The Chinese Storm forecast in the GFS3 Model run above is 16 days away and these forecast models are not accurate at this range.

That said, due to the forecast significant build up in atmospheric water in the Western Pacific #extremeweather is certainly possible.
The purpose of the thread from the 13th was to take a look at the cascading effects of water flow at the tropics in relation to possible #extremeweather events a year on from the catastrophic floods in Europe and China in 2021.
The effects of atmospheric water in the tropics have cascading impacts as water flows Westward. Here we see an updated Indian PWAT model taking into account #Estelle. (and the 13/7 comparison)
Here are comparative 16 day rainfall forecasts for 13/7 and 17/7 for the North Indian Ocean Region.
Here are comparative 16 day rainfall forecasts for 13/7 and 17/7 for China.
There remains a massive level of uncertainty about all of this however, with a lot resting on what happens to #Estelle's development and track.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

Mar 20
A Russian analysis on the upcoming XI-Putin summit in Moscow contains several interesting features two of which I highlight here. THREAD

1. The possible impact of the summit on prospects of ending the war in Ukraine.
2. The joint efforts to build a new trading system which is… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1. Could a resurgent China, intent on reshaping aspects of the global order, with a recent diplomatic coup in the ME be in a position to mediate peace talks and an end to the conflict in Ukraine? Image
2. The sharp end of the second leg of this - reorganisation of global finance to lessen “US Dollar Hegemony” is the BRICS initiative which - if as some expect - may now see the development of a Saudi and Iranian oil trade settled in Chinese Yuan is the more consequential aspect… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14
I would be more worried about @SecBlinken’s visit to Ethiopia were he not the least effective and most disastrously incompetent US SoS in living memory.

US foreign policy is currently failing across the globe.

This doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not planning to pressure… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The incoherence wrt HoA and Ethiopian policy since Biden’s invitation to and warm welcome provided to Abiy in mid-December is hard to get your head around.

Since the December meeting US information ops, military operations, diplomacy and Congressional legislative action has… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
It’s almost as if the left hand of State hasn’t got a clue what the right hand of Biden is doing. And there is an obvious possible explanation as to why.

During the single term Trump Presidency Obama’s FP team including Blinken, Susan Rice and Linda Thomas Greenfield made hay… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
And here is todays presentation (the bit at the end) Freddy has weakened a little but still huge. This is similar to what we saw in Pakistan last year. Notably it is clear the storm continues to be fueled by the monsoon over the Great African Forest to the north east.
These were yesterday's GEFS and EPS ensembles. GEFS had abandoned a return to the Mozambique channel and the EPS ensemble showed a relatively weak return passage to Madagascar.
And today - whilst it may be a bit premature to say so - it looks as if Freddy may be about to finally check out. At the end of the animation as dawn breaks out it looks as if the low has been over powered by the AR that had been feeding it - pulling it to pieces.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 13
I think we need to be honest about what took out SVB and why. The bank was deliberately destroyed by the super wealthy interests of Silicon Valley - it was and is an exercise in so called "creative destruction" for the self interest of capricious and greedy technology investors… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Saving the bank would be a worthwhile objective, but as a bailout has been ruled out - for good reasons - by Janet Yelland - this appears to be impossible.

Saving the deposits of the victims of this collapse is worthwhile. But discussions about saving the interests of large… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
As for the events that took the bank down - the run on the bank and the role of Peter Thiel in that - an libertarian extremist individual of extreme malevolence - this should be fully investigated by the SEC.

Efforts should IMO focus on whether this was organised/coordinated,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 6 tweets
Mar 11
CNN on the Chinese facilitated Iran/Saudi Detente. cnn.com/2023/03/11/mid…
MSNBC
This @Aljazeera panel is in my opinion the most useful analysis available so far on Youtube of the #SaudiIran #MiddleEastDetente
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10
This annual farce over the now “obdurate” Egypt’s objection to the filling of the GERD dam when the miraculous annual rains begin is wearing thin.
The indicated early arrival of the big rains (as in 2021) signals it is very unlikely there will be any problems with filling this year, just as there were no problems/harm in 2021 or 2022.

Moreover completion of the filling looks likely to be completed more quickly than… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
This is the latest 10 day GFS rain forecast for the Horn of Africa. The big rains begin in July. These little “belg” raibns are starting early and appear to be fairly strong,
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(