Hurricane #Estelle has spun up & grown into a massive 800k wide storm.
Whilst #Estelle is expected to remain over open water its impact on the Tropical Mega-Atmospheric river mean it's impacts will be felt in East Asia 13k kms away.
I discussed this in my thread 13 days ago which takes a deep dive into the relationship between a more extreme tropical rain belt and #extremeweather globally.
#Estelle is forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane in the next 12 hours and a Major Hurricane within 24 hours and to remain at Major Hurricane strength for 48 hours after that.
#Estelle is also huge in size with intense convective bands extending 400kms from her center already, even though no eye has yet formed. She is - in summary - an extraordinary convection engine, delivering vast amounts of water vapour into the upper atmosphere.
In my thread back on Wednesday I looked at what the impact of all the additional water #Estelle is now generating would have in East Asia. The image below is an update of the GFS3 atmospheric water forecast from the quoted tweet below.
With more water than originally expected flowing into the system, the expected outcome is significantly worse.
Left. Forecast of a super typhoon hitting Shanghai Aug. 2nd
Right. Forecast (13/7) of relatively minor storm arriving 25/7.
Here are the two model forecasts two days apart. The latest forecast shows a massive slow moving storm similar to #Infa which struct China last July.
WARNING NOTE: The Chinese Storm forecast in the GFS3 Model run above is 16 days away and these forecast models are not accurate at this range.
That said, due to the forecast significant build up in atmospheric water in the Western Pacific #extremeweather is certainly possible.
The purpose of the thread from the 13th was to take a look at the cascading effects of water flow at the tropics in relation to possible #extremeweather events a year on from the catastrophic floods in Europe and China in 2021.
The effects of atmospheric water in the tropics have cascading impacts as water flows Westward. Here we see an updated Indian PWAT model taking into account #Estelle. (and the 13/7 comparison)
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla