Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 17 16 tweets 10 min read
#ClimateChangeNow THREAD

Hurricane #Estelle has spun up & grown into a massive 800k wide storm.

Whilst #Estelle is expected to remain over open water its impact on the Tropical Mega-Atmospheric river mean it's impacts will be felt in East Asia 13k kms away.
I discussed this in my thread 13 days ago which takes a deep dive into the relationship between a more extreme tropical rain belt and #extremeweather globally.
#Estelle is stronger than models had expected four days ago ,and is currently forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Like Hurricane Darby (which remains active) take a fairly straight trajectory keeping it away from coastal North America.
#Estelle's genesis was remarkable shown here transitioning from a drepression into a storm on Friday.
And 12 hours later #Estelle became a Hurricane.
#Estelle is forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane in the next 12 hours and a Major Hurricane within 24 hours and to remain at Major Hurricane strength for 48 hours after that.
#Estelle is also huge in size with intense convective bands extending 400kms from her center already, even though no eye has yet formed. She is - in summary - an extraordinary convection engine, delivering vast amounts of water vapour into the upper atmosphere.
In my thread back on Wednesday I looked at what the impact of all the additional water #Estelle is now generating would have in East Asia. The image below is an update of the GFS3 atmospheric water forecast from the quoted tweet below.
With more water than originally expected flowing into the system, the expected outcome is significantly worse.
Left. Forecast of a super typhoon hitting Shanghai Aug. 2nd
Right. Forecast (13/7) of relatively minor storm arriving 25/7.
Here are the two model forecasts two days apart. The latest forecast shows a massive slow moving storm similar to #Infa which struct China last July.
WARNING NOTE: The Chinese Storm forecast in the GFS3 Model run above is 16 days away and these forecast models are not accurate at this range.

That said, due to the forecast significant build up in atmospheric water in the Western Pacific #extremeweather is certainly possible.
The purpose of the thread from the 13th was to take a look at the cascading effects of water flow at the tropics in relation to possible #extremeweather events a year on from the catastrophic floods in Europe and China in 2021.
The effects of atmospheric water in the tropics have cascading impacts as water flows Westward. Here we see an updated Indian PWAT model taking into account #Estelle. (and the 13/7 comparison)
Here are comparative 16 day rainfall forecasts for 13/7 and 17/7 for the North Indian Ocean Region.
Here are comparative 16 day rainfall forecasts for 13/7 and 17/7 for China.
There remains a massive level of uncertainty about all of this however, with a lot resting on what happens to #Estelle's development and track.

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More from @althecat

Jul 18
FWIW these calls for UN intervention in Ethiopia are completely bonkers.

The Govt is not going to invite Blue helmets in just as it is about to begin peace talks with TPLF and is busy fighting an insurgency in the south West, whilst maintaining defensive positions in north.
Also, the UN cannot deploy without the GoE’s agreement, has no forces available to be deployed and any attempt in the UNSC will be opposed be African States and India and vetoed by Russia and China.
Also the calls for The Govt of @AbiyAhmedAli to resign just as peace finally looks within reach are hard to understand.

The imminent release of the Gondar University study into Genocide in Welkait is likely to park that issue till a full forensic study has been completed.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
A trip down the memory hole with award winning @observer investigative journalist @carolecadwalla into the @borisjohnson - @mrevgenylebedev - Alexander Lebvedev mystery.…
The story lays out the remarkable story arc of a very consequential story hat has never been resolved to the satisfaction of anyone paying attention to the scandal. Here are @carolecadwalla’s final two paragraphs. Posing some of the unanswered questions.
No doubt for space reasons @carolecadwalla doesn’t delve into the question of Russian involvement in the online covert Cambridge Analytica misinformation campaign in the final weeks of the Brexit Referendum campaign which many think pushed the campaign over the line.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 13
#ClimateChangeNow deep dive thread.

This week marks the anniversary of 2 catastrophic flooding events, in Western Europe and China which focussed global media attention to the dangers posed by atmospheric weather changes.

I wrote about this for the @NZHerald at the time.
@nzherald And I thought it would be interesting to revisit the issue a year on. Should we expect similar events this year.

First of all there are again a lot of flooding events, New South Wales has just experienced a serious flooding event…
Meanwhile the Indian Monsoon season has already resulted in 100s of deaths in multiple locations across India and the broader region. And as you see here floods have killed many more in other places also.

You can track major floods on
Read 57 tweets
Jul 12
It ought to be obvious from this renewed OLA offensive in Shoa that OLA is a TPLF proxy. I have been saying this for a while, but the next phase of the TPLF's war is underway and arguably began back in April when OLA was also active in this area north of Addis Ababa.
It is important for those of goodwill in the International Community & diaspora who are rightly desirous of a return to peace in Ethiopia to acknowledge these basic facts.
Through increasing their attacks in Shoa the OLA-TPLF is forcing the ENDF to re-deploy troops, which in turn enables the insurgent forces to commit further attrocities in support of the information war that they are waging against the Govt of Ethiopia.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
This is all a lot more complicated than it seems and these DRC/Rwanda/Uganda confluct threads need to be read with the counterpoint of corrections and observations kindly provided by @DecaymanR who is from Rwanda and knows this stuff.
@DecaymanR It is all very peculiar nonetheless.

This was the trigger.

Remarks by the DRC President on Monday 4/7, and reported in the FT on Wednesday 6/7, the day before a mediation meeting was held in Luanda Angola to discuss the brewing conflict - which appears to have quietened things. Image
That FT report is here >>…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Further to this thread which is about what threatens to become a new war in the Eastern DRC between Congalese forces and the official and irregular proxies of Rwanda and Uganda. This report from June 27th appears to be relevant.…
The report concerns an order to raise the readiness of Ugandan forces to Standby Class 1 - the highest level of alertness in the military pending further instruction. Image
The quoted thread in the OP covers an @nbstv interview with the @UPDFspokespersn yesterday in which he talked about a wide range of subjects including cross border operations currently underway in the DRC pursuing the ADF - an rebel Ugandan force.
Read 5 tweets

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