1. Why foolish wars of aggression can be a big mistake especially when aggressor proves to be weak.

"The spokesman of the battalion named after Sheikh Mansur, Islam Belokiev, said that the Ichkerians have started preparations for hostilities in Chechnya.
2. Ichkeria is divided into three fronts and 16 sectors. There is an intensive collection of information on cities where the Russians are deployed for attacks. 'If Chechnya trembles, Russia will collapse.' Belokiev."
3. Report that Ukrainian Rada is considering recognizing the independence of #Ichkeria (#Ічкерія). Fundamental political theory says when faced with an overwhelming opponent in a conflict, expand the conflict. Another war on Russia's southern flank could
4. spread like wildfire and begin the complete disintegration of the remaining Russian federation and with so many Chechens thirsty for revenge against Putin this could turn into a conflict of historic brutality. Stick a pin in this one.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Jul 18
1. Putin is scheduled to travel to Iran tomorrow to hold meetings with Iranian leaders. Erdogan is also attending. Putin has a strange relationship with Erdogan and often enables the Turkish leader but the request to attack Syria that is surely to be on the table may be too much. Image
2. The complexity of the Syrian situation intensifies with every passing hour. Currently Turkey is occupying large parts of Syria when in 2019, Erdogan bullied #45 into betraying our partners in the war against ISIS for a second time. The areas Putin allowed Turkey
3. to occupy in 2018 and 2019 are swarming with jihadist mercenaries including ISIS and Al-Qaeda. Erdogan and his partners in the jihadist-supporting Gulf states desire to eliminate all Kurds, Yezidis and Christians in Syria and Erdogan with Putin's help was more than
Read 15 tweets
Jul 18
1. I get why everyone wants to see #45 charged. Few more than I. But I still don't see solid admissible direct evidence he advocated force or violence in any context that this SCOTUS might not toss on political speech grounds. We need a smoking gun that will permit
2. states to charge. So how would I go and get that? He's not a big email or text user as far as I see and uses techniques consistent with his organized crime background. So how do they get the mob? Wire taps. Perhaps not something exotic like a FISA though that is possible but
3. does anyone doubt that he has committed seditious conspiracy, advocating overthrow, incitement of insurrection and obstruction? Throw in conspiring to murder the VP and you have all that is needed for probable cause for a traditional albeit cumbersome Title III wire intercept.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
1. The strategy that seeks to protect the Russian middle class from sanctions and other impact of the genocide in Ukraine is dangerously misguided. While Putin and his generals murder more Ukrainian children and hold kidnaped children in concentration camps Russians enjoy a
2. pleasant day at the beach in stolen Ukrainian land in Crimea. All non-immigrant Russians should be banned from the US. Give them 30 days to leave. Turn Sevastopol into a burning graveyard of Russian naval vessels and destroy the Kerch bridge. Let Putin threaten. @POTUS @WHNSC
3. His army is weak. He can't use nukes without risking Moscow being burned to crisp. Make the Russian people suffer just like people in Ukraine by making them into North Koreans. Banned from any travel, shunned for their cowardness and willingness to be part of Putin's mob.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 17
1. Once again the Russian rail hub at Alchevsk came under Ukrainian GMLRS fire. Russia's strategy of using massed long-range artillery fire to pummel its victims into submission cannot hold up to deadly accurate missiles targeting the ammo. Without an alterative strategy Russia
2. appears to be continuing to try to supply the front in the Luhansk region via Alchevsk and Ukraine continues to destroy it regularly. Russian media reports that Shoygu has been tasked with finding a solution. A guy who never served in the military and stole everything
3. under his command that could have been used to fight the war is unlikely to come up with a solution. It's just face saving for Putin and his corrupt regime. Fitting that corruption may be Putin's undoing. Because it is so much a part of Russian culture it likely never ceases
Read 6 tweets
Jul 14
1. To everyone who thinks that just because they don't know what DOJ is doing it means nothing is happening, I want to share with them that the person Garland worked closely with at DOJ during #42, involved in catching the Unabomber was my late brother who never mentioned it.
2. John told me you don't get to have big secrets unless you learn to keep your mouth shut. He taught me about Rule 6(e) in a way that proved how critical it is to the functioning of our system of justice that must have tools to investigate while still protecting the innocent.
3. I believe Garland holds 6(e) with the same reverence that John had for it. It saddens me that so many don't seem to hold it in nearly as great esteem as it deserves. To understand what is happening, I don't expect to see leaks or missteps.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 13
1. Noteworthy, the Kremlin propaganda machine has, for the most part, steered clear of @January6thCmte hearings. Byrne was someone who would have been a lawful FISA target at least during the period of his active liaison with a Russian agent. As we learned from Carter Page, old
2. Kremlin connections can be used as grounds to support issuing of new FISA authorities. What if Byrne was under a live FISA order on the day he penetrated the White House with Flynn a known foreign asset? Nobody in the group of misfits including POTUS #45 would likely know.
3. Besides a small group at NSA, the need-to-know group would include Acting SecDef Miller, John Demers who was running the DOJ National Security Division and the FISC judge who would have issued the orders. By now top FBI people would be read in to operate under Title III.
Read 6 tweets

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