Thread by @marcushjohnson

One of the things that is super overrated on social media is political messaging. Like the idea that if Dems just *say the right special words* they win over the maga voters. It doesn’t work like that, voters aren’t stupid, they know what both parties represent already.

Saying “its the corporations” or saying “we’ll fight for you” or whatever in an ad isn’t going to magically change people who hate Democrats’ minds. I don’t know why people even believe this. Messaging isn’t magic, people have already tried all of this stuff.

The reason why Democrats haven’t won white voters in a Prez elex since the 1960s, the reason why Dems are hemorrhaging white working class support, is because LBJ and the party went all in on letting Black people be part of society and changing the all white immigration laws.

The Democratic Party decided the founders were wrong, that America’s social system from its earliest days was actually bad, and the groups who materially benefited from that unequal authoritarian system are mad that it changed. That’s it. Can’t message your way out of that!

People throw out all this bs about how the Democratic Party went neoliberal blah blah blah and that’s why the white working class left. They leave out the Democrats winning the non white working class for some reason. But let’s talk about this.

Why did the New Deal coalition collapse? Why did US labor policy turn rightward? Why did policy towards social services change so drastically?

…because all of a sudden, non whites could participate in society, and the working class whites (they’ve always been a huge % of the overall pop) left the Dem New Deal coalition, demanded social services/labor were weakened (bc poc benefit from those post crm)

Letting non whites participate in society caused a massive, dramatic conservative backlash, especially among the wwc, that led to Republicans winning the next 5/6 Prez elections post CRM (68/72/80/84/88).

This wwc backlash to the successes of the crm and new immigration laws, increased economic/political competition with non whites destroyed the new deal coalition and pushed the country’s social welfare policy rightward.

This, along with increased global economic competition (americans cant have the immediate post ww2 econ/manufacturing conditions forever), reduced living standards, especially for lower skill americans, and made social mobility harder.

To blame Democrats for this is asinine. Messaging cannot solve this. The only thing that could solve the Dems problems with the wwc would be to commit to making non whites second class citizens. To completely eliminating their competition with the wwc. Obv politically impossible

Of course some have called for diet versions of this. For eliminating “wokeness” or “crt” or “affirmative action” or “identity politics.” Telling non whites to essentially “stop being so up front about getting more.” This is bad stuff, but its still not would work

The only thing that would bring those voters back into the Dem fold is a commitment to go back to an era where they didn’t face any competition with non whites, where they were clearly first class citizens and non whites were clearly beneath them. The founders’ america.

Messaging doesn’t solve this issue, even a commitment to social democracy/leftism does not solve this issue (it probably angers these voters even more, since they rightly suspect that non whites would disproportionately benefit)

Democrats have to accept that their coalition is structured in a way that means they’re not winning back the wwc. Does this make the Senate hard? Yeah, it will be for a long time.

However people have gone overboard with “demographics aren’t destiny” and “Dems are doomed.” Changing demographics is literally the only reason the Democratic Party is nationally viable at this point.

If you have the demographics of 1980 the Democratic Party isn’t a viable party in modern times. But with the massive increase in non white vote share the Democratic Party has won 7/8 last pop votes and will be 8/9 in 24. That’s all demographic change.

The Democratic Party has won 5/8 last EC votes and could be 6/9 if Biden beats Trump in 24. That is pretty dominant in US history. Again, due to demographic change. A strong majority of Asians, Latinos, and Black Americans support Dems in Prez elections now.

Every four years people say “This is it, this is the year all the non whites are going to become Republicans.” It doesn’t play out that way for the same reason the Democrats can’t win back the white working class. Its not about messaging at all.

But the Democratic Party is in strong position to win the Presidency going forward, at a higher rate than Republicans, because of demographic change. Why does TX prez margins get closer every 4 years? Demographic change.

The Presidency is now the most important seat in US politics, in a highly polarized system where other institutions are broken. The President sets the agenda and most importantly can block the other side.

As broken as the system is…because of polarization (itself a response to the crm successes) Dems are in as good a position as they can be to hold the Presidency and perform well, because of demo change. Without it the party would be completely screwed.

But my main point, again, is that this isn’t about messaging at all. People aren’t stupid, they know which party represents their interests. People don’t care about ideology at all, most don’t even care about specific policy that much. The right words don’t change party id.