Thread by @ProfessorHannah

Any diplomatic end to this war will see Putin with a reduced military strength, a weakened economy, and diminished geopolitical influence.

My latest.🧵1/9

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/07/18/its…

Russian troops are consolidating their gains in Donbas as up to 1,000 Ukrainian fighters are killed or wounded daily. This puts the war on track to be among the bloodiest in modern history. 2/9

None of us WANTS to live in a world where might makes right & where Ukraine feels compelled to make concessions after Russia’s illegal invasion. But all of us DO live in a world where national leaders face real and intensifying domestic political pressure to rapidly end this war.

A new poll by my organization, @EGFound, suggests the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine has broad international support but that this is primarily because it has avoided a direct confrontation with Russia. 4/9

2.5x as many think the US responded well as not. Follow-up yielded:

Asked about the most important U.S. goals, avoiding a U.S.-Russia war and preventing Ukrainians’ suffering were the two most frequently chosen answers... A diplomatic settlement would better ensure the success of these two internationally popular goals. 5/9

A push for diplomacy is consistent with President Biden’s commitment to curb escalation. He repeatedly commits to limiting U.S. intervention against Russia’s invasion. He privately called on Antony Blinken & Lloyd Austin to tone down their talk of weakening Russia by proxy. 6/9

The United States needs to open a diplomatic channel with Moscow to get a clearer sense of what would be an acceptable settlement for all parties. 7/9

Promises of unlimited support only embolden what is starting to be seen as the Ukrainian president’s “reckless stubbornness” in outright rejecting the possibility of territorial concessions. 8/9

It is not realistic to expect Moscow will fully retreat. U.S. policy must now shift to embrace this reality, and plan for the months ahead when deep divisions within the Western coalition grow, and when, in a lopsided war of attrition, Ukraine might lose even more ground. <fin>

(Thanks to @benjaminja & @KelleyBVlahos and the editorial team at @RStatecraft for running this.)