We're out with a NEW international survey as @POTUS heads to France to commemorate D-Day. 🧵 (1/8)

80 years later, Europeans aren't confident 🇺🇸 would save them again.

6% think it is a "very reliable" guarantor of European security. We surveyed nat rep samples in 🇺🇸,🇬🇧,🇩🇪,🇫🇷. The thing is, they don't necessarily want the US to have to. Majorities want Europe to be primarily responsible for its own defense.

Nearly 3x as many Europeans seek a "neutral relationship" w 🇺🇸 (read: strategic autonomy) as want US to be responsible for 🇪🇺's defense. (2/8)

Some excerpts in the 🧵below from the latest episode of @PodcastNOTA, which checks in on the Ukraine war as we approach its 2nd anniversary, and features convos w/ @scharap & @alexbward.

Here's the whole episode if you have the time:

noneoftheaboveegfpodcast.libsyn.com/ukraine-at-two… "As long as this conflict is ongoing, the risk of escalatory contingencies like Russian nuclear use is elevated compared to peacetime...the Russians came the closest to considering using nuclear weapons in Ukraine when they were losing badly on the battlefield, when it seemed like their lines might be on the verge of collapse in Kherson and 40,000 airborne forces were about to be stuck on one side of the river and potentially massacred by the Ukrainians...

There’s “the practical matter of being able to physically kick out every single Russian out of all of Ukraine. That's really hard to do militarily.”

General Mark Milley gives his first podcast interview to @EGFound. Have a listen!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/non… I talk w the president’s top military advisory and country’s highest ranking military official about:

Russia’s motives in Ukraine, the Iraq War 20 yrs later, the prospect of US-China conflict, the changing character of war, and most important…the nat sec threat posed by sharks.

Any diplomatic end to this war will see Putin with a reduced military strength, a weakened economy, and diminished geopolitical influence.

My latest.🧵1/9

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/07/18/its… Russian troops are consolidating their gains in Donbas as up to 1,000 Ukrainian fighters are killed or wounded daily. This puts the war on track to be among the bloodiest in modern history. 2/9