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Jul 18 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Quick update on yesterday's thread on what we might find out soon about how the Ukr attacks on Rus logistics are changing things. So far, Rus ranged attacks over the last few days remain at a very low level, no sign that they are able to increase artillert activity for now.
Here is a FIRMS map of today in the Donbas in the key areas the Rus want to attack and covering the broad sweep from Izyum to Lyman to Siversk around to Bakhmut. This looks like the lightest day for FIRMS for a very long time.
Checked the weather, and it was clear in the Donbas most of the day, at least no rain, so weather shouldnt be making a big difference. So either the Russians are building up for something big, or so far they are having trouble maintaining the kind of fire they had before.
Worth saying that today's fire activity was light not just to a few weeks ago, but even to last week when Rus Army was having a pause. Here is today and July 12, which seemed like a quiet day at the time, but had more recorded fire activity than today.
And the Rus pause was formally declared over 2 days ago.
Interesting to note that in General Zaluzhnyi’s (CinC Ukr Armed Forces) just posted message, which has a short summary of his talk with Gen Miley (US CJCs) he specifically mentions the use of HIMARS on Rus logistics and command and control.
Here is the text. Certainly seems for now that the Ukrainians see the HIMARS as having changed the game. Will be interesting to see if Rus can adapt.
Also worth noting Defense Secty Reznikov’s most recent tweet mentioning ‘good news’ soon to arrive after his conversation with Def Secty Austin. Does look more and more that ATACMS ammo is coming. If they get enough, Russian logistics will be devastated.
To be entirely accurate, @oleksiireznikov spoke of ‘very good news’ for Ukraine. Very promising indeed.
Putin might have to move his artillery depots to Siberia…
Updating to say slightly more fire in the Sloviansk, Siversk, Bakhmut area, nothing like before the July 9 but more than yesterday. @GeneralStaffUA saying that they believe the main Russian effort being prepared is at Siversk/Bakhmut. Also worth noting the fire behind Rus lines.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 20
With the announcement yesterday by National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby (formerly in the Pentagon) that the US will send more HIMARS, with additional ammo, to Ukraine shortly, its worth bringing together a few new stories on this. pravda.com.ua/news/2022/07/1…
As there were 12 announced deliveries before this, we can assume that the number Ukraine will have soon (when the US makes the announcements these days, it often means that the deliveries are ready to go), it seems that Ukraine will have approx 20 soon. militarytimes.com/land/2022/07/0…
This comes on the back of @oleksiireznikov announcement of the other day that Ukraine has received MLRS 270. (from the UK all assumes) newsweek.com/ukraine-receiv…
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 17
This is really a fascinating point. We talk about the aid given to Ukraine by NATO, but while it’s improving is still far more restricted than what the USSR gave North Korea or Vietnam.
In both wars the USSR provided advanced MIGs to forces fighting US troops and in Korea Russian pilots actually flew combat missions while in Vietnam, Russian personnel served on the ground providing air logistics.
If NATO gave such aid to Ukraine now; the war would be over soon. So the self imposed limits on what NATO is doing for Ukraine as opposed to what the USSR did for North Korea or Vietnam, are making a massive difference.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 17
Sunday update, we should know soon the effectiveness of Ukraine's ranged attacks on Russian logistics. So far the signs are that they have restricted the amount of concentrated Russian artillery fire--which if it continues represents an important point in the war.
On the ground in Ukraine the line has hardly moved for 2 weeks, since the Ukrainian Army pulled out of Lysychansk. Here is the picture today in the most exposed part of the Donbas and on.. Note how Ukrainian resistance is built on 3 cities, Siversk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk.
Here is the situation on July 3. Pretty much identical (maps done by @War_Mapper So in two weeks the Russians have barely made a forward movement.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 16
Interesting statement by the Ukr Governor of Luhansk. Claims that all the Ukrainian attacks on Russian ammo depots is leading to a major change in logistics. Russians trying to rush ammo directly to the units at the front.
No confirmation yet, but if they are doing this, it should lead to a significant decrease in large, concentrated fires. No way you can evenly spread ammo this way and some units will run out before others are ready. Also will put huge strain on Russian truck force. Watch this.
One of those issues where people don’t get the complexity and importance of logistics, if the Russians are doing this, they are having real problems. They have a very rigid system of creating large depots near rail lines and distributing from there. If they’re now trying to…
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 12
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian Railway network overall, then a zeroed in map on exactly where the depot was located. Its the black dot on the upper of the two blue lines. ImageImage
The two blue lines, btw, are the only two major rail lines into the Kherson front for the Russians, they are absolutely vital to the supply of their troops, and what this attack is showing is that they are in real trouble.
Read 14 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 11
Cummings seems upset, but all I did was point out that that in March 1, when the Russian Army was knee deep into war crimes in Ukraine, he called for Ukraine to be treated like Hungary in 1956, which was left to be brutalised by the USSR
Here’s the tweet. As his position was entirely in opposition to that of the U.K. government, it’s necessary that Sunak state his Ukraine policy clearly and whether Cummings will be involved in government again.
Clearly involving Cummings could lead to a seismic shift in the UK’s stance, and that needs to be understood. Don’t know why he’s so defensive.
Read 7 tweets

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