Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My daily update! This time really late at night!

#ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

The Kharkiv area: Today Ukraine announced a successful operation in Dementiivka where they destroyed a platoon of Russian marine special forces (1). It is unclear who controls the town, or when this attack happened. For more info:

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1549076052617601025?s=20&t=NS5YbDj6jCcM6icfZq1Caw

The Barvinkove/Slovyansk area: Ukraine repelled an attack towards Dmytrivka (2), but it is unclear which angle the attack came from. It could have from from the north, as depicted, or possibly from the east.

It is possible that Ukraine defended an attack against Brazhkivka today (3). You could also read the report that the attack came from Brazhkivka, which would mean the town is under Russian control. I await clarification, but tentatively label Brazhkivka as Ukrainian.

Some time over the last few days, Ukraine captured Dibrovne (4) and perhaps even Brazhkivka.

Russia attempted and failed their daily attack into Krasnopillya (5).

The Siversk area: Russian forces are trying to push towards Hryhorivka (6) and Serebrianka (7) but they are having a lot of trouble moving through the terrain.

With regards to Hryhorivka, the town is almost shaped like a bowl surrounded by wooded areas. Ukrainians control the high ground on roughly 3/4 of the town, and are also using the wooded areas for defense.

With respect to Serebrianka, Russia has just about fought their way up a hill, after which they have to move down the other side and then up and over another hill to reach the town. Ukraine is using this second hill as a great natural defensive position.

Russia needs to capture Verkhnokamyanske in order to attack Siversk, but it is an easy to defend because it is a valley between two hills that are under Ukrainian control.

Russia is trying to push into Verkhnokamyanske (8,9), but they are having a lot of trouble controlling the high ground. Their most successful attacks into the town have been countered by huge Ukrainian artillery barrages that drove Russian forces out and back into the bushes.

A bit south, Russia seems convinced they will have a breakthrough somewhere between Berestove and Ivano-Darivka, or perhaps even Bilohorivka. Of these three areas, Russia is pushing the hardest into Ivano-Darivka (10), with smaller attacks into Berestove (11) and Bilohorivka (12)

The attacks into Berestove and Bilohorivka, in my opinion, cannot be successful unless Russia is capable of combining air and grounds in a coordinated attack. Which is something the Russian army seems incapable of doing.

The terrain just favors the defenders too much to take these areas with ground forces alone without horrific casualties. And let's be honest, they have already suffered horrific casualties after nearly 60 days of failed assaults. Russia began attacking this area around May 20th.

South of Bakhmut: Even though Russian forces are low on infantry, they are trying to storm the Vuhlehirska power plant (13), Novoulhanske (14), and Semyhirya (15). Ukrainian forces are suffering attrition from constant artillery fire.

The Avdiivka area: Capturing Kamyanka is extremely important for Russia because it brings them one step closer to taking Avdiivka which, believe it or not, is one of their primary objectives in this war.

Several weeks ago Russia was making semi-successful assaults on Kamyanka, but all of the infantry and a large fraction of their artillery were pulled out to attack the Popasna/Lysychansk area (where they suffered terrible casualties).

Now, without replacing any of the forces sent north, Russia is continuing their assault on Kamyanka (16). The Russian forces have terrible morale, and the attacks are half hearted at best.

I do not have much information about the area south of Donetsk, so I have decided to erase much of the Ukrainian line and only mark the areas I know they control. This morning Russia tried to attack towards Novomykhailivka (17) and Vuhledar (18). Both Attacks were repelled.

South of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine is heavily shelling Russian positions (19), and they are clearly getting ready for an offensive. They are mobilizing armor and mechanized infantry, amassing air power and artillery, and bringing in HIMARS and other long range MLRS (smerch?)

Closer to Kherson, Ukraine launched four missile attacks into various Russian warehouses and such (20). Russia fired a large number of missiles into Mykolaiv (21). They've also fired a bunch of missiles into Odesa.

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