Every year I write a thread about how American Ninja Warrior (#ANW) is my favorite TV show and how the startup ecosystem can learn from ANW.
And now that I’ve spent time in the web3 space I can see how adopting the ANW ethos could improve the success rate in the #NFT space.🧵👇
It’s hard to deny that startups generate infectious energy. Founders have no political filters clouding their ideas. They have no higher-ups waiting around to smash their ideas. They don’t care about sacred cows and they don’t care if hundred-year-old brands are shattered.
What Founders care about is solving problems and being better than those that came before them.
But while Founders believe that they’re destined to succeed, statistics would suggest otherwise. They’re most likely going to fail or stall somewhere on the way to greatness.
How does this apply to the NFT space?
Success is so improbable that active participants in the NFT space should help out and root for every credible NFT Founding team to climb Mount Midoriyama.
I’ve probably confused most of you, but stick with me and it will all make sense.
Mount Midoriyama is a fantastically large steel structure at the end of the world’s most difficult obstacle course. The obstacle course originated in Japan under the name Sasuke, and over a 34 season run, only 4 competitors have completed the course (one did it twice!).
Of course, the US had to create its own version of the show, and so was born America Ninja Warrior. The popularity of the show has been growing since it first aired in 2009 and thus far in American Ninja Warrior history, only 3 Americans have completed the course.
Contestants train year-round for what could sadly be seconds on the course. A great year for a contestant might be conquering the obstacle that they fell on the previous year. Or it might be to just go out and “represent”. Success means different things to different Warriors.
From this a Ninja Warrior community has emerged, and what’s fascinating is that they exist to help each other get better and to help each other succeed. They don’t see themselves in competition with each other, but rather they’re all in competition with Mount Midoriyama.
Dedicated Ninjas sacrifice just about everything in their lives to train for a course that will almost certainly get the better of them. Each individual knows that he or she is expected to fail but the best of them believe success is possible.
This is where a supportive community matters. This is where a “Ninja-as-a-student” mindset matters.
Any advice that gives a Ninja a better chance at success helps them tackle Mount Midoriyama.
And that’s what we all want. We want to see Mount Midoriyama bested.
This is why I would love to see a NFT Founder’s journey follow a similar path to a Ninja’s journey.
It’s a nearly (but not) impossible task to climb Mount Midoriyama or to build a successful NFT project, but everyone ultimately wants to see the impossible tamed.
But today’s NFT space doesn’t operate this way. NFT holders rally around “their bags” and shill projects to anyone who will listen. There’s very little substance that pierces the veil of tribalism and me-ism. No advice is being shared. It’s creating noise that muddies the waters.
The cold, hard truth is that very few projects are being run by people who have a shot at conquering Mount Midoriyama. Very few Founding teams have conquered the first stage of Mount Midoriyama and there are still many stages to go. It’s honestly quite intimidating.
But the prize is out there and it’s a juicy one! If a handful of NFT projects can be runaway successes, they’ll pave the way for the next batch and the next batch and the next batch to follow in their footsteps.
And if this happens everyone will win.
So what can YOU do to help better the ecosystem?
#1: Stop crapping all over other projects unless they’re blatant fraud schemes.
In almost all cases, there’s a well-intentioned team behind the project that’s trying to make things work for them and their community.
#2: Be honest with the “why” behind your investment.
If you’ve bought into a project to make a quick flip then you’ve lost all rights to give feedback and advice to the team. They’re trying to conquer Mount Midoriyama and you’re betting they’re going to fail.
#3: Practice being honest.
It’s disingenuous to hype a project with the sole intention of selling to someone new at a higher price. It’s sincere to onboard new community members if you plan on sticking around.
There are ways to sell/capture profits but do it honestly.
#4: Give Founding teams time.
Mount Midoriyama has been conquered, but only by Ninjas who failed over and over and over again. The best Ninjas don’t give up. Their support system doesn’t give up.
Giving up too soon is a major character flaw of investors in the space.
#5: Be a good training partner.
We’re all part of multiple projects and therefore have exposure to experiments being conducted by different teams. If you see something that’s working, find a way to professionally funnel the info to the other projects you’re involved with.
#6: Invest what makes sense given the nature of the asset class.
Internalize that you’re investing in something that will statistically fail. Don’t invest as if your NFTs are assets that can be converted to fiat at any time.
This is a source of depression and a path to madness.
There’s nothing more exciting than accomplishing the nigh impossible. It can be rewarding on many fronts (personal and financial). But conquering something as difficult as a NFT project requires many cycles of practice, failure and coaching.
Be patient and be positive!
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Here are six observations about people's behaviors that amaze me because they make no sense.
Does anyone care to shed light on these topics?
A very short 🧵 👇
Constant Oversteering
In "capital abundant" markets Founders are told to put growth on the books at all costs.
In "capital tight" markets Founders are told to preserve cash at all costs.
Advice stinks unless tailored so why is there so much generic advice and oversteering?
Under-communication
In times of uncertainty, people crave facts and plans. Any absence of information creates a void that fills itself with speculation, FUD and can lead to people "getting off the bus."
So why don't Leaders over-communicate with stakeholders and employees?
1/5: It's interesting to study the reactions to my recent appearance on @cartoonavatars.
We discussed my journey into and early conclusions about web3 and I found the conversation intellectually stimulating.
Steel sharpens steel so debate can be used to make one better.
2/5: My journey has been a structured dive into web3 to understand something that others see value in. Never have I presumed the "thing" is amazing or terrible.
My goal has been to emerge with views on where there's signal vs. noise and where the innovation is real vs. fake.
3/5: The responses are funny to read if they weren't endemic of the broader problem we're seeing in society around the inability for people to engage in "agnostic discourse".
I don't mind being attacked but it's obvious the attackers are attacking to justify their own views.
It’s widely believed that “grit” is one of the most important characteristics of successful people.
After 8 months in the web3 space I have a view that many of the problems in the NFT ecosystem are directly attributable to a lack of grit.
A few controversial thoughts: 🧵👇
I’ve written about how the lack of grit has impacted traditional stock and options investing. I feel like the NFT space needs to be added to this list.
I’m not trying to criticize well-intentioned NFT investors. I’m sharing a framework around toxic behaviors that are everywhere.
Like meme stocks did during the pandemic, NFTs are now suffering from YOLO behaviors. “You Only Live Once” is being used as a loose justification for pouring a more than comfortable amount of one’s personal net worth into highly speculative investments.
I took the red pill 8 months ago and I’m no longer a skeptic that something is brewing in web3.
But many of my observations have been critical and quite negative.
It’s time to add one more observation to the list that’s at the heart of many of the problems in the space. 🧵👇
Before sharing my new observation, I thought I should highlight 5 of my other fundamental observations because they build on each other and are why I think the web3 space is “not ready for prime time” (yet).
Feel free to skip if you've already read them!
HOUSE MONEY EFFECT
A theory used to explain the tendency of investors to take on a much greater risk profile when reinvesting profit earned through investing than they would from money earned in other ways (i.e. - wages).
Market corrections happen😱. This one happens to be brutal because there doesn’t appear to be anywhere to hide.
I thought I’d share an updated version of my “investor’s framework” for how to think about corrections and how to navigate the choppy waters.🧵👇
Crashes hurt. There’s no denying the fact that when market crashes occur, confusion and panic set in. Uncertainty around what to do creates anxiety and angst.
And the “2022 falling knife” is no different. Fear is dominating many people’s head space.
But in times of uncertainty, a framework can be the guiding light that helps one navigate choppy waters.
The mental model for corrections that I’ve set as “True North” consists of two very important concepts:
Founders can be stereotyped into one of two general profiles.
In today’s funding environment one profile is likely to survive and thrive while the other will struggle and possibly die out.
Which are you? 🧵👇
Talented Founders want to change the world. They can spot and understand unsolved problems. They assemble solutions that address unmet needs.
In practical terms this means they can articulate a “problem statement” and a “solution statement” they want to focus on.
The problem statement is the Founder’s way of helping his/her audience internalize a problem they’ve discovered in their target market and an articulation of why it’s a gigantic and profoundly painful problem to a defined group of customers.