Those following my recent #ClimateChangeNow threads will have seen a focus on the Tropical rain belt - specifically the impact of a string of hurricane's in the Eastern Pacific on increasing atmospheric water across the globe.
& on the impact in East Asia in particular.
Altogether the Pacific has had six systems - five of which are hurricane's since May 22nd.
Since July 2nd there have been 3 (pictured below see also Wikipedia [en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Paci….] - Bonnie 2/7, Darby 6/7 and Estelle 7/11.
Two more are now predicted in the GFS supercomputer weather model, and they will become Frank and Georgette if they appear.
As you will see in the next tweet the system which is expected to become Frank is already forming.
The first forecast image below shows Frank on July 26th. The second image shows what could become Georgette on July 29th.
This is our first glimpse of the tropical disturbance which could soon become Frank. It has not yet been designated by the NHC (National Hurricane Center) which currently says there is a 30% chance of formation of a storm in this area over five days.
As the forecast system has not yet been designated we do not yet have floater satellite imagery. But the 3rd & 4th images here are current satellite imagery from Goes East >> star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector.ph…
The NHC text for this is very sparse at this stage.
This computer similarion image shows the atmospheric water forecast for #Frank and #Georgette. Both are currently expected to become like their three sibling storms - all of which originated in roughly the same spot - significant storms.
These two graphics from the Wikipedia page show the origination point and the relative strengths of the first three storms in this series.
Whilst Hurricane Darby has had some pretty spectacular impacts in Hawaii these storms are not expected to be a particular hazard to land, though there outflows are generating storms on the American mainland. This image shows Estelle three days ago.
The main impact here is on the tropical water balance - and this impact is global.
All three hurricanes have generated significant outflows strengthening the flow of water westwards along the main Tropical Rain Band. In this image (17/7) we see Estelle (nth) and Darby (sth).
This forecast shows the expected impact of Frank and Estelle on that tropical water flow. Thanks to the earlier hurricane's this flow is running hot, not with standing the La Nina (low SST temperatures) in the Eastern Pacific.
And this is forecast to have significant impacts in the West Pacific, India and probably also East Africa as the water propagates eastwards.
Perhaps because cyclones are inherently very hard to forecast beyond 3 days with any confidence, the longer range model prognostications are extremely varied. We can see this in the current spaghetti graphics for the East and West Pacific.
Here three forecast solutions in recent model runs. 1. Today
2 & 3. Yesterday
The next series of images in this #ClimateChangeNow thread look at the global impact of this phenomena - which is now already three weeks old - and IMO already having significant impacts, varied, as far West as India and Africa.
Here we see the 24h over the East Pacific 1/6
The animation above shows the impact of the outflows from Estelle into the Westwards travelling tropical rain band.
And SST anomaly image 18/7 (See coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/ for data/animations) appears to show a localised impact from the hurricanes on SSTs themselves.
The large area of blue you see in the image above is the La Nina = unusually low SSTs over a vast area of the Pacific.
This image shows the next leg of Westward travel across the Pacific. Again 24h. on the LHS, in the area NE of Australia it looks as if there is an impediment.
And here's a close up view of that - over the last six hours.
This is a 72 hour forecast for this area. Water moving simultaneously in different directions at different altitudes. A substantial amount of water is heading north and combining into a stream coming past Japan into a colossal atmospheric river heading towards Alaska.
Same data with a clearer view of the net flows as predicted by the model. The quoted thread shows what is predicted to happen to this atmospheric river. Part of it eventually curves south bringing some of the water back.
Moving west again we find SEA. lots of rapid tropical water flow and convection, including a low system over or off the coast of Vietnam which is generating a lot of rainfall.
But the main feature is a lot of water passing through towards the Indian Ocean.
And in the Indian Ocean convection is also picking up generating very high elvels of rainfall over the Ethiopian highlands where atmospheric water from the SE is coliding with flows from the NE coming in over the Arabian Peninsula.
We can also see a very busy picture in the West African Monsoon. over the Sahel and the great central African Rain Forest - and in the evening over the Sahara Desert. #DesertRain
And finally to complete our tropical river picture here is a view of the final leg over the Atlantic and the Northern Amazon.
Can any conclusions be made from all this?
Image 1: The average no. of hurricanes in the EPAC is 8. So far there have been 5. If Frank/Georgette spin up that will make 7.
Image 2 & 3: In 1992 (the record year) there were 6 before the end of July.
Broadly speaking rain correlates to El Nino - Drought to La Nina. La Nina conditions are more common & 2022 is La Nina .
Do El Nino EPAC Hurricanes correlate with WPAC typhoons?
Img 1 & 2: 2016 Season (Strong EN)
Img 3 & 4: 1998 Season (strong EN)
Do La Nina EPAC Hurricanes correlate with WPAC typhoons?
Img 1 & 2: 2012 Season (Strong LN)
Img 3 & 4: 2001 Season (strong LN)
On the face of it the answer seems to be yes to both questions. But maybe there is just an increase in both as temperatures are rising.
The question I am really seeking to answer here is whether La Nina's are no longer as closely correlated as they were with droughts, because as the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere increases, something looking like El-Nino in terms of atmospheric water is now normal.
As for this year, it remains to be seen. But it looks as it it is shaping up to be a record year for Pacific Hurricanes and Typhoons. Theres an interesting blog about this general question here from 2014. climate.gov/news-features/…
Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin (Figure 1)
Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin (Figure 2).
But this is not what we are currently seeing happening. We have La Nina, a fairly strong one.
But as of right now no Atlantic Hurricanes at all. But five and counting Pacific Hurricanes.
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THREAD: Some thoughts on October 7th and the importance of their being global transparency over what we know about what really happened on that terrible day.
1/ This (see screenshots in the first few posts in this thread) is one of the most important pieces of conflict related journalism published in recent years.
It relates to the orders given to soldiers on October 7th to fire on any vehicle seeking to return to the Gaza Strip to prevent the taking of hostages and was published on July 7th, 10 months later in Haaretz.
2/ As @IsraeliPM Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address congress it is vital that the public in the US, Israel and globally is fully aware of what exactly happened on October 7th in Gaza.
3/ The account in this story published by Haaretz is at this time still behind a paywall and it has therefore not been read by the very large number of people who ought to have done so. I have not seen very many reports containing the detail of this report elsewhere though I presume there are many.
OK so clearly #HurricaneBeryl is not the same as #HurricaneHarvey. But there are some striking similarities in terms of what has made it so much more persistent than either forecast or as modeled.
This thread is going to look at this issue a bit more deeply.
- The overall cloud mass of the #HurricaneBeryl thunderstorm complex proved much more resilient than expected once it came over land. Why?
- Also Like #Harvey Beryl did slow down after making landfall and continued to spin over land. Why?
- I think the answer to both questions relates to the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Like Harvey back in 2017, Beryl has been fueled by a constant stream of warm wet atmospheric flows of energy off of the Gulf of Mexico.
- This is obvious in part simply from observing the astonishing expansion of the cloud field after #Beryl made landfall early this morning.
A clue to understanding this can be found in looking at the the astonishing growth progression of #HurricaneBeryl's cloud field over landafter Beryl strengthened and formed itself into a Hurricane in the period after making landfall south of Houston.
Over the course of the rest of the morning you can see in these images how much the wind field expanded.
Like Harvey #Beryl also grew and strengthened itself by feeding off of the gulf of mexico, specifically the area between the Texas coastline and what looks like the outer boundary of the convection field which expanded extremely strongly to the north.
The only source for all this additional atmospheric moisture can be the oceanic convection which took place in what is a fairly clearly bounded 136,000 km2 area of ocean which as you can see in this animation is very closely bound to the rest of the circulation.
This is a much much larger area than the area of active rainfall which settled over the city and metropolis of Houston for the morning and which is finally starting to move off to the north now.
This version of the graphic shows the comparative sizes of the area of water which is responsible for the astonitising growth of post landfall #HurricaneBeryl - and the area of the storm that remained over the ocean and which is almost certainly responsible for both why this storm was so persistent and why it (like Harvey) slowed down after coming ashore.
#HurricaneBerylis not expected to give up lightly as it moves onshore and turns north eastward over Texas and then heads north east across the great planes towards the great lakes.
Typically we expect hurricanes to weaken rapidly over land - especially wind wise. But #Berylis not forecast to behave as normal - probably because like Harvey, its tail over the Gulf is keeping it fueled. - the currently forecast pattern from Fox News's exclusive model shown in these images was present in some of the simulations of Beryl after it crossed the Yucutan a couple of days ago.
To my mind questions ought to be asked about the accuracy of the forecasting for this storm, as - like the last super destructive Texas Hurricane, Harvey in 2017 [] Beryl is proving to be a LOT more destructive in its impacts than initially forecast.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane…
The final image in this sequence of screenshots of Fox Weather Graphics is worth drawing attention to as it shows how much broader the impacts of this hurricane are expected to be as it moves across the great planes roughly speaking heading up the Mississippi river, and continuing to dump potential flooding rain as it goes.
This image shows the forecast expected severe weather threat from the remnants of #HurricaneBeryl in Arkansas and Missouri up as far as Saint Louis.
ALERT: High Target News Environment in play - numerous consequential news events with global implications.
1. British elections - (Thursday July 4th-Friday July 5th): Delivering an unprecedented landslide win to the left's @UKLabour Party + strong showings for the Liberals and Greens . The UK Chancellor @RachelReevesMP will shortly set out her economic policy in a speech.
2. French elections (Sunday July 7th) deliver a remarkable 2nd big win for the left in politics in France - dashing the hopes of Marine le Pen's hard right wing "Rassemblement National" of first parliamentary victory
3. Overnight (7th-8th July): an unprecedented huge Hurricane , #Hurricane Beryl - makes landfall in Houston as a Category 1 Hurricane, its main threat to the epicenter of the global fossil fuel industry will be flooding. It is still night in Houston at present.
Hmmmmmm…. Why is the audio of the @youtube version of the UNSG office daily briefing for 1st July missing sound from 5:24 to 6:07?
Afghanistan, Lebanon, Myanmar & other topics - Daily Press Briefing (1 J... via @YouTube
The content of this portion is available as it is simply a quote from written remarks of UNSG @antonioguterres made to a meeting in Austria. But the missing YouTube audio is unprecedented in my experience and hard to explain.