Giancarlo Sopo Profile picture
Jul 20, 2022 6 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🚨NEW POLL🚨

A stunning new Quinnipiac poll shows that Joe Biden’s approval rating among Hispanics is just 19% — that is 51 points underwater and 10 points lower than it is among Whites.

I guess “unique as tacos” and “Latinx”aren’t working.
The Quinnipiac poll also shows Republicans with a slight lead among Hispanics in the 2022 generic House ballot, an impressive gain for the GOP that bodes very well for candidates in heavily Hispanic districts like @CasandraLGarcia, @MayraFlores2022, and @monica4congress.
The poll also shows Republicans with a lead in the 2022 Senate ballot, which is great news for @marcorubio and a testament to the work of friends like @lauraortizrod and @HTosteGOP.
The poll shows that by and large, Hispanics are dissatisfied with the state of the country and 73% say they were worse off now than they were a year ago. This is terrible news for the Democrats.
The #1 issue for Hispanics? Inflation and nothing else even comes close.

Immigration is near the bottom at just 3%, challenging Democratic narratives about Hispanic voters.
Do Hispanics want Joe Biden to run for re-election? The answer is a resounding NO.

76% of Hispanics — and a majority of every other ethnic group — says Biden should not run in 2024.

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More from @GiancarloSopo

Nov 28, 2024
I’m a media strategist who watches hundreds of movies a year. Straddling cinema and political comms, I constantly think about visual storytelling.

Every frame tells a story — and Kamala Harris’s much-panned DNC video tells the wrong one.

Here's why.🧵
The lighting in the DNC video is flat and harsh, giving the frame a dull, washed-out appearance. It creates shadows that emphasize tiredness rather than vitality. Proper soft lighting could have softened the look and conveyed warmth and energy. Compare this with her campaign ads.Image
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Wardrobe: Harris’s brown blazer blends into the beige background. What story does this tell? She's fading. Contrast this with the vibrant use of color in Visconti's The Leopard. Delon’s crisp white shirt and Cardinale’s shimmering gown stand out against rich golden hues, elegantly drawing you to them.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 10, 2024
🚨🚨

Eye-popping numbers among likely voters in the NYT / Siena Swing State Poll:

Combined: Harris +5
MI: Harris +5
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +6

Whites: Even
Blacks: Harris +68
Suburbs: Harris +11
White College: Harris +23

$0.02: It's early but the warning lights are flashing.Image
My take: I don't get hung up on cross-tabs in August but...

- Minority data seems right
- The +65 data is too rosy for Dems
- Dems are prob doing better than +18 with Gen Z (won them by ~30 in 2022)
- Shifts w/ college-whites and suburbs make sense
FWIW, in case you've missed my other tweets outside this thread: I think this poll overstates Harris' margins in these three states.

Trump carried whites by 11 points in MI, PA, and WI in 2020. It's plausible that the Democrats have made gains with this demographic, but I don't think they're tied now — inconsistent with a lot of other data.

Conversely, I think Harris is probably running 10 points ahead with young voters and blacks than where this poll shows.

If you make reasonable adjustments on both sides, this poll goes from Harris +5 to about Harris +2 or 2.5.

Statistical tie with a lot of ball left to play. Republicans shouldn't panic, but it is a more competitive race now and some recalibration may be warranted.
Read 4 tweets
May 19, 2023
As I've been saying: One of the country's top Disney reporters (yes, this is a beat) just confirmed Ron DeSantis had little to do w/ the Orlando project cancelation.

(1) Too costly
(2) Relocation issues
(3) Iger hated it

If they lie about this, what else are they lying about?
When this reporter says this project's cancelation was expected, that's because Iger himself suggested it back in November.

People who cover Disney (not political reporters) have known this has been in the works for months. Image
The HR issues were huge. Disney lost talent.

If you've ever held a senior level marketing role, you know how hard it is to find A-list creative talent.

It's especially hard outside of NYC and LA. Disney was going to have to spend a ton on perks and partnering w/ local schools.
Read 4 tweets
May 18, 2023
I'm going to walk through these poll numbers in this thread.

Long story short: The numbers strain credulity. We are not winning Hawaii by 57 points. 😂

Please follow along...
The first red flag is the presence of a "third candidate." But it doesn't say whom.

Was it a Democrat who siphons votes off of Biden? We don't know.

Either way, the fruit of the poisonous tree rule applies: the rest of the poll is tainted by this, but let's continue. Image
Next, let's look at the gender breakdown here.

Trump won men by 2 in 2020. This has him +10.4.

Biden won 55% of women in 2020. This has him at 38%. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 1, 2023
The past 24 hrs have been enlightening.

Team Trump insists Ron DeSantis must stop and pontificate on the Tucker-Fox separation.

Meanwhile, DeSantis enacted the death penalty for child rape.

One of them is serious about governing. The other sees politics as entertainment.
Like I've said, Tucker is successful, talented and he is going to land on his feet.

The job of a leader isn't to go out of his way to engage in media industry punditry.

Our country has serious problems. The time for f-ing around is over.
It is a free country. You have a right to believe the country lacks serious issues and our leaders should spend their time engaging in media gossip, rather than addressing Americans' concerns.

But if you believe this, your choice in 2024 is clear — and it is Joe Biden.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 12, 2022
The Democrats’ first reaction to their losses with Hispanics is to deny them. “It’s just Florida" (aka "it’s just Cubans"), they’re arguing.

Next, they’ll blame "Spanish disinformation.”

An overview of election and polling data debunks both contentions.
The national polls are clear: Whether you prefer the AP’s D+16 or the network exit poll’s D+21 margin, Republicans just had their best midterm performance ever with Hispanics.

The previous best was D+22 in ‘94, a landslide year for the GOP.

Kudos to @Danielle_Alva and her team.
Let’s look more closely at non-Cubans in Florida.

DeSantis won 58% of the total Hispanic vote. 2/3 of the FL Hispanics are not Cuban (he won 69% of them).

He won 56% of Puerto Ricans and about half of the remaining Hispanics, who are mostly Mexicans and Colombians.
Read 11 tweets

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