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Giancarlo Sopo Profile picture
Giancarlo Sopo
@GiancarloSopo
Media strategist and cultural writer • Made in 🇺🇸 With 🇨🇺 Parts • “I was born standing up and talking back”
3 subscribers
Nov 28 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
I’m a media strategist who watches hundreds of movies a year. Straddling cinema and political comms, I constantly think about visual storytelling.

Every frame tells a story — and Kamala Harris’s much-panned DNC video tells the wrong one.

Here's why.🧵
The lighting in the DNC video is flat and harsh, giving the frame a dull, washed-out appearance. It creates shadows that emphasize tiredness rather than vitality. Proper soft lighting could have softened the look and conveyed warmth and energy. Compare this with her campaign ads.Image
Image
Aug 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🚨

Eye-popping numbers among likely voters in the NYT / Siena Swing State Poll:

Combined: Harris +5
MI: Harris +5
PA: Harris +2
WI: Harris +6

Whites: Even
Blacks: Harris +68
Suburbs: Harris +11
White College: Harris +23

$0.02: It's early but the warning lights are flashing.Image My take: I don't get hung up on cross-tabs in August but...

- Minority data seems right
- The +65 data is too rosy for Dems
- Dems are prob doing better than +18 with Gen Z (won them by ~30 in 2022)
- Shifts w/ college-whites and suburbs make sense
May 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
As I've been saying: One of the country's top Disney reporters (yes, this is a beat) just confirmed Ron DeSantis had little to do w/ the Orlando project cancelation.

(1) Too costly
(2) Relocation issues
(3) Iger hated it

If they lie about this, what else are they lying about? When this reporter says this project's cancelation was expected, that's because Iger himself suggested it back in November.

People who cover Disney (not political reporters) have known this has been in the works for months. Image
May 18, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
I'm going to walk through these poll numbers in this thread.

Long story short: The numbers strain credulity. We are not winning Hawaii by 57 points. 😂

Please follow along... The first red flag is the presence of a "third candidate." But it doesn't say whom.

Was it a Democrat who siphons votes off of Biden? We don't know.

Either way, the fruit of the poisonous tree rule applies: the rest of the poll is tainted by this, but let's continue. Image
May 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The past 24 hrs have been enlightening.

Team Trump insists Ron DeSantis must stop and pontificate on the Tucker-Fox separation.

Meanwhile, DeSantis enacted the death penalty for child rape.

One of them is serious about governing. The other sees politics as entertainment. Like I've said, Tucker is successful, talented and he is going to land on his feet.

The job of a leader isn't to go out of his way to engage in media industry punditry.

Our country has serious problems. The time for f-ing around is over.
Nov 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
The Democrats’ first reaction to their losses with Hispanics is to deny them. “It’s just Florida" (aka "it’s just Cubans"), they’re arguing.

Next, they’ll blame "Spanish disinformation.”

An overview of election and polling data debunks both contentions. The national polls are clear: Whether you prefer the AP’s D+16 or the network exit poll’s D+21 margin, Republicans just had their best midterm performance ever with Hispanics.

The previous best was D+22 in ‘94, a landslide year for the GOP.

Kudos to @Danielle_Alva and her team.
Sep 19, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
National pundits are still arguing that sending migrants to Martha’s Vineyard may cost DeSantis his re-election. That’s wildly off. I’m going to break down Florida politics a bit more.

1) A significant number of Venezuelans have conservative immigration views. It’s tough to know details because polling is limited, but it’s a safe assumption given Trump’s big gains with Venezuelans in 2020 — after 4 years of being attacked for his immigration policies.

2) DeSantis has a strong presence in the Venezuelan community.
Sep 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I don't typically engage bad-faith arguments, but I'll break this very silly one down.

1) My work clearly shows I believe the VZ vote is important. However, national pundits who say MV will hurt DeSantis in 2022 bc of FL's VZ vote are getting a few things wrong. 1 /Continued:

This argument presupposes the Venezuelan American vote is large enough to swing an election in Florida. My point is that's unlikely.

This is not a policy argument. It's statistical analysis based on data from a Democratic polling firm.
Sep 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The misinformation/disinformation distinction is important. There's plenty of the latter on the left.

Slate and a viral Stephen King tweet falsely claimed Florida requires professors & students to register their political views with the state.

35% of Democrats now believe it. The national news media has (falsely) described Florida's education law as "Don't Say Gay."

Now, 67% of MSNBC viewers believe Florida has banned the word "gay" in all public schools.
Sep 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The people arguing this hurts DeSantis politically don’t fully understand Florida politics.

A few points:

1) The Venezuelan vote is not as large as most people think.

2) Miamians, including VZs, are fed up with overcrowding.

3) Some say the new migrants are leftists. 4) In Florida, concerns over socialism trump stylistic differences on immigration policy.

5) Most Florida Hispanics are not impacted by US immigration laws.

6) It doesn’t help the Democrats that the Venezuelan activists attacking DeSantis have no credibility in their community.
Aug 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Higher ed is a racket propped up by the gov.

1) Eliminate bankruptcy protections for loans.

2) Require schools that receive federal $ to accept dual enrollment.

3) End federal loans to attend expensive schools if cheaper options that are better or similar are available. 4) End 120-credit requirements

5) Require schools to allow students to take cheaper, online courses (such as HarvardX, etc.) to satisfy electives.

6) No federal $ for study abroad, etc.

7) Allow students to test out of subjects for credit.

8) No federal $ for useless courses
Aug 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🚨

A new poll out of Florida indicates the Democrats' problems with Hispanic voters are worsening.

Biden's approval rating in Miami's heavily Hispanic FL-27 is just 35% and 17 points underwater.

Context: Biden only lost here by 1 point in 2020 and Gillum won by 7 in 2018. Before anyone dismisses this as "just Cubans," please note:

- A little more than half of the Hispanics in FL-27 are Cuban. The rest are mostly Colombian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan.

- Pay close attention to the momentum / past results I highlighted in the previous tweet.
Aug 3, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Here are some problems with this analysis:

1) The notion that the GOP's 2020 gains with Hispanics are limited to FL is easily debunked by actual election results and Pew's verified voters study showing a 17-point loss for Democrats in their Hispanic margins between 2016-2020. 2) Comparing election polling to exit studies can be tricky.

For starters, polls have undecided respondents. Exits have none.

This table — where I compare the 2020 Hispanic spreads in polls with the exit data — illustrates the problem.
Jul 31, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🚨

A new CBS poll shows a statistical tie among Hispanics in the 2022 generic ballot.

Context: Democrats won Hispanics by 40 points in 2018.

This is a seismic shift in American politics. Hispanic voters are shifting to the right. If you want understand why, this analysis by @AgustinLaje is excellent.

Los hispanos están girándose hacia la derecha. Si quieres entender por qué, este análisis de @AgustinLaje es excelente.

Jul 20, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
🚨NEW POLL🚨

A stunning new Quinnipiac poll shows that Joe Biden’s approval rating among Hispanics is just 19% — that is 51 points underwater and 10 points lower than it is among Whites.

I guess “unique as tacos” and “Latinx”aren’t working. The Quinnipiac poll also shows Republicans with a slight lead among Hispanics in the 2022 generic House ballot, an impressive gain for the GOP that bodes very well for candidates in heavily Hispanic districts like @CasandraLGarcia, @MayraFlores2022, and @monica4congress.
Jul 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It's a lot worse than "Miss Frijoles."

Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is paying a creepy blogger to sexually harass Congresswoman @MayraFlores2022.

This post was in May, just weeks before Gonzalez paid him $1,200. In this post, written a week after Vicente Gonzalez paid him $1,200, the blogger describes a conversation with a friend about @MayraFlores2022's private parts.
Jul 1, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
🚨NEW POLL🚨

According to @Civiqs, Biden's national approval rating among Hispanics is down to 38%.

This is the lowest approval rating for a Democratic president that I have ever seen among Hispanics.

This is why Democrats are buying Spanish radio stations. They're panicking. 🚨TEXAS HISPANICS POLL🚨

Joe Biden's approval rating is -20 points at 32% among Hispanics in Texas.

If these numbers hold, the Democrats will suffer catastrophic losses in the Rio Grande Valley with @CasandraLGarcia and @monica4congress joining @MayraFlores2022 in Congress.
Jun 4, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I’ve been traveling all day.

A Soros-backed group led by Democratic operatives have purchased over a dozen Spanish radio stations, including Miami’s iconic Radio Mambi, a conservative station.

Here’s my take on this: 1) I honestly don’t know how this will pan out from a business standpoint. I’m skeptical. Running a media company is tough. It could flop, like Univision’s Fusion. Then again, this is a decently funded operation and money can buy talent.
Jun 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Picanha night 🔥🥩 👌🏻
Jun 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
It's always fun discussing Latino cultures with reporters and who/what non-Latinos think is relevant to Hispanics.

<<Me describing a telenovela star>>

Reporter: Oh, you mean he's like Eva Longoria?

Me: Yeah, except Hispanics actually know who he is. For the record:

Latinx might know who's Eva Longoria, but no one named Lupe, Carmencita or Consuelo have any pinche clue who she is — and Yolanda sure as shit does not either.
May 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Yikes. I've polled Disney and cannot emphasize enough how abysmal these numbers are for them.

Disney's name ID is 100%. Their fav/unfav rating was 77-21 (+56) last year. Their pos-neg rating is now 33-30 (or +3).

Entertainment brand ratings shouldn't be on par w/ politicians. I've tested A LOT of brands.

Not withstanding a crisis, household names usually have very high favorability ratings — like, in the 70s and 80s with +40 net favorability scores.

Being in the 30s and only +3 overall is a full-blown public relations fiasco for Disney.