1. With reports of more GMLRS systems going to Ukraine, and the Russians with no quick fixes, it's reasonable to assume that the Russian force isolated on the Ukrainian side of the Dnieper may be in for a rough time when their escape and supply routes are destroyed.
2. The main bridge at Kherson has now received sufficient damage that it may not stand for long. The alternative escape route over the Nova Kakhovka dam may soon be the only way in or out of Russian-held territory. If the Russians fear being trapped they will try to get out. 
3. Recent days FIRMS has shown fewer fires likely attributed to artillery both tube and rocket than just days ago. One of the few recent hits is right where I would expect Russian forces to begin to rally to start an evacuation, just outside of the entrance to the dam.
4. If Ukraine were to destroy the dam, it would do several things beyond the obvious loss of an important part of the Ukrainian infrastructure. First, the destruction of the road and rail on the dam could make vehicular passage difficult or impossible forcing Russian forces to
5. abandon more equipment to Ukrainian forces. Second, based on my rough assessment, the destruction of the dam that lowers the river to near the level of the dam run-out, should result in what what I perceive as the Kremlin's principal objective being irretrievably lost.
6. The run down stream from the dam is abut 10 meters below the river height at the dam. Dropping the river to near the level of the run-out should have the effect of depriving the Crimean canal of water. I understand there may be water running within the Kerch bridge
7. system. Taking out both the Nova Kakhovka dam and the Kerch bridge means Crimea could become a deserted wasteland of expensive condos built by Putin's crime family who bet that a quick theft of Ukrainian territory would secure Crimea's water for the future.
8. Putin's investors have one way to save their investment. Withdraw from the other side of the river. Make the need to destroy the dam less critical and the Crimea dream-homes of Putin's insiders might still have value. But Putin does not think rationally. He still doesn't know
9. who the real Nazis are.
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