Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 124-148. Late June to mid-July has seen a host of developments throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) have managed to secure the Luhansk Oblast but struggle to produce results on other fronts.

2/ Since it has been over three weeks since my last thread, I will be breaking up my normal update over the course of several days. There is a lot of data to analysis and discuss, therefore today’s thread will be a short one on the major events of the past three weeks.

3/ Weather Outlook. The ten-day Forecast will see temps range from 32-23 C during the day and 19-13 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while moderate night illumination will aid UAF infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors UAF artillery.

4/ Kharkiv OD. The VSRF still lacks the capacity for anything more than small-scale action to recapture ground lost in May 2022 to the UAF counteroffensive in this OD. The Russians will most likely invest time and resources to harden defenses of critical infrastructure.

5/ Donetsk Oblast OD. The capture of Luhansk Oblast is the first real tangible success Russia has experienced since 24 Feb 2022. The OGRFR is in an ideal position to punch through the weakest part of UAF defenses in north Donetsk Oblast if it can isolate the close fight.

6/ UAF long range artillery strikes are the main obstacle to the VSRF. If the UAF can continue to strike deep and destroy Russian ammo and fuel depots they can replicate the success they experienced in grinding the Russian offensive before Kyiv to a halt.

7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Although action here remains localized attacks to improved tactical positioning the introduction of new UAF units in the Vuhledar may signal the UAF intent for a larger counteroffensive that can threaten Russian logistical infrastructure in this region.

8/ Odesa-Kherson OD. The Ukrainian counteroffensive into northern Kherson Oblast and Kherson city has been the most profitable for the UAF over the past 24 days. UAF units have been able to push within 10-12km of Kherson, well into the interior of Russian fortified defenses.

9/ UAF & VSRF units remain at a level of relative parity along an extended front. If the VSRF is unable to rapidly adapt to the targeting of its command posts, supply depots, and key GLOCs it is likely the UAF will be able to cause a breakdown in the cohesion of Russian defenses.

10/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on naval developments. An assessment on air operations will follow this weekend, as well as a deep dive into operational trends and the likely trajectory of operations for the late summer / early fall.

11/ Assessments of UAF & VSRF units is based on my judgement of combat capability due to length of time on the line weighted against the intensity of combat a unit has likely recently experienced.

12/ I would like to thank @battle_order for allowing the use of their outstanding unit icons on these operational map updates.

Correction: There is a lot of data to analyze and discuss.