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Jeff Giesea Profile picture
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Jul 22 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
.@PredictIt shows Trump sinking at the end of June, then surging through July. The #January6hearings don't seem to be taking away any of his support and may be having the opposite effect.

- The light blue line is Trump and the purple line is DeSantis predictit.org/markets/detail…
According to another recent poll:

-half of Americans think Trump should be charged with Jan 6 crimes

but...

-Jan 6 is not top of mind for voters in either party
-Jan 6 is an important issue for only 2% of Republicans
pbs.org/newshour/polit…
Most Trump supporters I know are ignoring the hearings. I'm watching and have decisively moved away from Trump (I'm one of the 2%), but I haven't seen any evidence that this is a broader phenomenon.
My first reaction to @ScottAdamsSays's point was that he was OBVIOUSLY WRONG. But having looked at a few indicators, it's very possible the hearings are having some "backfire effect" and furthering Trump's support.

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More from @jeffgiesea

Jeff Giesea Profile picture
Jul 20
Still waiting for media to engage in some self-reflection in the face of record-low trust....

That's not the case here, though @jackshafer raises valid points about a broader collapse of trust. politico.com/news/magazine/…
Note the wagon-circling, evidence-free logic
Also note Shafer's inattention to the partisan divide in media trust. And the dominance of leftwing views within the profession. These are meaningful aspects of the media-trust issue that deserve attention and reflection.
Read 5 tweets
Jeff Giesea Profile picture
Jul 10
Was just looking at some data points now vs Jan '21, when Biden took office...
Inflation rate
-Jan '21: 1.4%
-now: 8.6%
usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/curr…
Gas price per gallon
-Jan '21: $2.42
-now: $5.03
eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/…
Read 9 tweets
Jeff Giesea Profile picture
Jul 8
A few hot takes on the Twitter deal withdrawal:

1. Elon was foolish to waive due diligence rights. But Twitter was sus for not providing more transparency. There was an easy solution: a third party audit. (Facebook does this.) I suspect other factors are driving the withdrawal.
2. Elon's offer was at a premium in a changing macro-economic environment. But worse than that: The deal became political, in an already divisive & charged political environment. Elon encouraged this. This was a mistake imo.
3. The nature of the deal was noteworthy in the history of M&A. It was highly public, obviously, and it played out on the platform itself. Elon's poop emoji felt like a sort of Gordon Gekko moment for shitposting. Has there ever been something so meta in history of M&A? 🤣
Read 6 tweets
Jeff Giesea Profile picture
Jun 26
Do the gays behind @againstgroomers have kids? Sincere question.

This "groomer" talk is dangerous & foolish. I share concerns about gender/queer ideological excess, but this isn't right.

Would encourage you all to reconsider. #GaysAgainstGroomers
@againstgroomers #GaysAgainstGroomers claims to want to protect children from predators. That's a noble goal. But is this the way to do so? The shotgun approach to smearing people with the stench of child abuse is dumb, dangerous, and wrong. It will get someone killed. Have we learned nothing?
@againstgroomers Your kid is in kindergarten. Mother's Day is approaching. A well-meaning teacher brings out "Stella Brings the Family" to help *your* child. Maybe you find it inappropriate. Maybe other parents do. Fine. You really ok with calling her a groomer? No. amazon.com/Stella-Brings-…
Read 9 tweets
Jeff Giesea Profile picture
Jun 25
Spent the last two years off Twitter, changed my info diet, survived parenting under Covid, worked on my shit, and evolved. Dipping my toes back on Twitter. Experimenting and kind of ambivalent about it. Hope life is treating you all well.
What are some observations?

• I used to think Twitter helped me think more critically. That it made me smarter. But it controlled me in ways I didn't fully appreciate. It skewed my info diet, created weird subtle social pressure, rewarded righteous anger and bad energy.
• I used to intellectualize the info environment, wrote papers about it etc. And then I became a victim of it. The forces here are real & not abstract. Today I appreciate the human, real-world impact more and think about these issues with a greater sense of responsibility.
Read 13 tweets
Jeff Giesea Profile picture
Jun 21
As a Republican and (past) Trump supporter, I find it deeply disturbing how few people are acknowledging the obvious truth: that there was a deliberate, coordinated attempt to interfere in the electoral process led by Trump. This is a moral failure.
I understand the counter-narratives:
-the 2020 election was stolen
-feds spurred the riots
-Democrats have done far worse
-the hearings are one-sided & scope of investigation should be widened

Even if history proves these true, a Constitutional red line was still crossed.
I also get that midterms are coming up. The GOP has every reason to BTFO Democrats next fall... on nearly every issue! Denying and ignoring what happened makes sense politically. But what about the bigger picture? It seems short-sided and wrong to turn a blind eye.
Read 7 tweets

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