1/ finding the truth requires overcoming human psychological biases
Our brains use heuristics constantly. Heuristics are inherently backwards facing. They are based on a mental model of the world that currently exists
2/ but venture investing is about imagining a new world
This is why heuristics are bad. And especially why analogies are bad
To find the truth about how new markets can function, or how you can reshape existing markets, you must therefore *actively fight* heuristics
3/ our IC process is at its core designed to fight heuristics that lead to sub optimal decisions
The only way to do that is meticulous market structure examination. And that means arguing over every detail
4/ our investment memos our littered with comments questioning almost every statement - or even outright claiming that statements are false
This is the only way to overcome the heuristics that our brains naturally use to actually find the truth
5/ it sounds brutal. And it kinda is. Multicoin IC is not fun. But everyone adapts to it over time
We bicker over minutia. And then we laugh and make jokes and banter.
6/ Although it can feel personal, it never is. Tushar and I always push the team to get back up and try again, and to continue to explore and imagine, and everyone does
Finding the truth isn’t fun. But it is super intellectually rewarding.
Onwards and upwards. LFG!
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1/ Had ~10 people (1 from each of the major lenders) just got on a Zoom and talked to one another
We probably wouldn’t have ended up here. They would have realized what 3AC was doing and could have acted sooner
2/ Likely that 3AC made fraudulent representations to counterparties. I don’t think the risk mgmt teams at all of these place were that stupid. I think they were at least partially lied to + lacked incentives to coordinate (see prior tweet)
Marginfi is *the* quintessential example of composability on Solana. I highlighted Marginfi extensively in my composability presentation at the Multicoin Summit