.@1stArmoredDiv had a high-performing Division Support Command of 5000 soldiers, a well-oiled supply chain process that had operated at utmost efficiency, proven junior & senior leaders, & we were familiar with the territory and supply routes.
Then...the Sadr revolt. 2/
As we maneuvered to counter Sadr's rebellion, his followers begun messing with our supply lines.
-planting IEDs on routes and in culverts
-targeting contract truck drivers
-attacking resupply nodes
-focusing their efforts not on fighters, but on logisticians. 3/
Though we had savvy logisticians, hardened supply routes & a professional support organizations, Sadr's "army" played hell w/ our ability to resupply.
RU did NOT have savvy logisticians, hardened supply routes, or professional support organizations from the beginning. 4/
RU has had severe challenges with supporting their army in the fight from the start.
As @IAPonomarenko points out in the middle of his well-written piece, HIMARS is causing even more dysfunction in how they support their force.
They are finding it very hard to adapt. 5/5
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Having now read this most recent @usosce summary report 3 times yesterday and again once this morning, I've tried to wrap my head around Russian military actions in Ukraine.
The US rep to @OSCE is @mikercarpenter, a man I deeply respect from previous interactions.
Having served many years in Europe, I have deep appreciation & respect for the very difficult mission the Commission has executed over the years.
Here's a summary of what OSCE does. 2/
It originated in a mid-1975 Conference held in Helsinki & it was created as a forum to discuss issues between the eastern & western bloc during the cold war. 57 countries participate.
The OSCE helps in conflict prevention, crisis management, & post-conflict rehabilitation. 3/
It is 11 July, the 138th day of Russia's illegal war in Ukraine.
My last 🧵on the war was 20 June (below), written when it appeared to me the tide was beginning to shift. Today it's time for an update, with some additional predictions for the next few weeks. 1/18
As always, I'll provide two caveats:
-this assessment is based on open-source intel, some friends in the theater of war, experiences as a commander in combat & an understanding of the RU and UA way of war.
-I'll use other's maps & reporting in this assessment. 2/
There's also less "kinetic" activity on the battle lines in the last week...
RU claims:
-They're in their latest "operational pause" (by my count, this is their 4th).
-They're "consolidating" in newly "secured" territory (use of "s due to those claims being questionable). 3/
After several weeks of travel, I was going to do an update thread on Ukraine today.
But the below conversation on Fox News, AFN & what's shown on military bases - shared with @RadioFreeTom - is an opportunity to share some facts...and some thoughts.
Been traveling the last 14 days…some work in Europe & a family event in the US. Brought this stuffed animal back home with me.
This is Dino, and he has a story. 1/9
The night I left for Desert Shield in 1990, I went to kiss our littlest son goodbye while he slept.
But he was awake, and his arm came out from under the blanket and he shoved his favorite stuffed toy at me.
“Dad, take Dino, he’ll keep you safe!” 2/
Well, that little stuffed dinosaur went through Desert Shield and Desert Storm with me, then a few months more when the war was over, sleeping in my rucksack in the back of my Bradley Fighting Vehicle as part of the Division’s Cavalry Squadron. 3/