Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update, the shift in focus is to the west (Kherson Front) as Ukraine is preparing the ground for a counteroffensive and Russian attempts to continue to move forward in the Donbas are petering out. Ukrainian strategy, Bleed them in the Donbas, Defeat them in Kherson.

Whats happened in the Donbas in the last 3 weeks can be summed up quickly. Almost no Russian advance, a major drop in Russian ranged fire since July 9. Russian logistics seem severely degraded and if they cant find a way to get ammo in mass quantities to front line units...

Here are @TheStudyofWar maps for July 23 and July 4. Russian offensive activity directed towards three areas, the town of Siversk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Minimal difference. I think the Russians might have occupied a few villages.

The lack of change in the last week is particularly important. Putin's defense minister Shoigu declared the operational pause over on July 16.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1548234092772151296?s=20&t=KRxZQBcq9ZRp9YKdsgdmzg

Since then, there was an attempt to increase Russian ranged fire, but that seems even now to be faltering. Looking at three day maps (July 17-19 and July 21-23) there is far less activity recorded in the latter than the former.

So unless the Russians are being subtle and slowly, quietly building up ammo stocks for a great offensive. they are struggling. Of course, even the heavier fire of July 17-19 pails in comparison to the heavier fire in earlier July. Almost night and day.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1550860261225107456?s=20&t=KRxZQBcq9ZRp9YKdsgdmzg

Most likely explanation is staring us in the face. Ukrainians now have the range and accuracy advantage, and are using it to degrade Russian logistics and command/control. While the Russians bash their heads on Ukrainian lines, Ukraine fights smart. kyivindependent.com/national/why-i…

If Donbas looks static, attention seems to be switching to Kherson. I was struck a few weeks ago when the Ukrainians started telling people to get out of the region as an attack was coming. It seemed to be telegraphing Ukr intentions to the Russians.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1544990777046081538?s=20&t=KRxZQBcq9ZRp9YKdsgdmzg

It does seem possible that the Ukrainians actually wanted the Russians to rush more force to the area, because the actually were not planning a mass attack, they were planning a deliberate logistics campaign. The more Russian troops the more difficult to supply.

What we have seen in the Donbas the last two weeks since the Ukr govt talked about a counteroffensive, is a deliberate campaign to destroy depots, C/C and now bridges. They seem to be cutting Kherson up into different small Russian areas that cant support.

Having already struck bridges that cross the major river in the area, the Dnipro, the Ukr have started striking bridges that link the north and south of the area on the west bank for the RUssians.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1550841163418050566?s=20&t=KRxZQBcq9ZRp9YKdsgdmzg

Ukrainians using the HIMARS on this (perhaps their most valuable equipment) and using it well as can be seen in the remarkably accurate fire that straddled the bridge hit yesterday.

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1550889729247289346?s=20&t=KRxZQBcq9ZRp9YKdsgdmzg

What might be happening? Just a guess, but actually the Ukrainians are still waiting for a large scale counterattack. They made the Russians send in forces, and now the want to cut them up and attrit them down. Basically theyve made the Russians commit to a killing ground.

And that fits alot of what they have been saying for months. The original guess for the great problem hitting the Russians in soldiers and supplies was late August. The Ukr dont look like they are going to do anything rash.

As long as they have significant advantages in range and accuracy, they will attrit Russian forces down in Kherson, lots of smaller attacks up and down the line to find soft spots (which will occur as Russian logistics and c/c fail)

A few more weeks of this, and you can see Ukraine taking more risks. Strategy might be, Bleed them in the Donbas, Bleed them in Kherson, Defeat them in Kherson.