Simon Evans Profile picture
Jul 25 15 tweets 7 min read
Truss vs Sunak #BBCOurNextPM

Tonight's debate is ahead of a vote of Tory members, who make up 0.3% of the population

The winner will be the UK's next prime minister

I'll be watching what they have to say about energy and climate change…

LIVE THREAD

bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00…
By way of background, the UK's just smashed its all-time heat record, reaching 40.3C last Tuesday…

…and the world's just had its hottest June on record over land areas

carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…

carbonbrief.org/media-reaction…
Meanwhile, the UK govt's net-zero strategy has been ruled unlawful by the High Court (oops)

The winner of this contest – either Sunak or Truss – will have to sign off on a new strategy by March 2023

Final context – this week, Ofgem is going to announce how high energy bills will be, come October

Widely expected to top £3,200, up 150%, thanks to high gas prices – and due to drive millions into poverty

Here we go – cost of living is first up

Sunak – "we'll have to see what happens to energy bills"

"in the long term" wants to "help ppl with energy efficiency…to help ppl save £300 off their bills"

also touts "homegrown energy" (what kind?)
Truss

"I would act immediately…I'd have a temporary moratorium on the green energy levy"

(that's only £150 off a £3,200+ bill…and helps pay for energy efficiency and warm home discount…)
BBC has a summary of Truss and Sunak main policies…

#BBCOurNextPM ImageImage
Sunak has accused Truss of making £40bn of unfunded pledges…

Well, if "suspending" the "green energy levy" means paying for it via govt spending, then that's £4.2bn a year (£150 for each of 28m households)
Big Q for Sunak…

He's suddenly discovered the joys of home energy efficiency improvements, so why did he reportedly block more funding for greener homes when he was chancellor?

#BBCOurNextPM Image
#BBCOurNextPM

@ChrisMasonBBC asking about the 2019 manifesto so let's recap what that said on page 1…

Point 5 in the list? Net zero by 2050, clean energy investment, green infrastructure…

conservatives.com/our-plan Image
Casual name-drop for "carbon capture and storage" on Teesside there from Sunak in #BBCOurNextPM

Nothing more than using those words, of course, but interesting that he decided to do that
#BBCOurNextPM

climate klaxon! record temps!

"What 3 things should ppl change about their lives"?

Sunak again touting energy efficiency; then recycling, then innovation…
Truss says was green before it was fashionable: we should save our resources, food waste; innovation – EVs…

But she doesn't want to "penalise ordinary households"

Wants to find a "better way to reach net-zero"…
Reminder: Govt climate adviser @theCCCuk recently said reaching net-zero would save the UK 0.5% if current record-high gas prices are sustained

#BBCOurNextPM

carbonbrief.org/ccc-costly-gas…
So Sunak thinks energy efficiency, recycling & innovation are top 3 things to tackle climate change?

What is the problem to which he thinks those are the solutions…?

Actual top three sectors for emissions:

Cars, energy supply, home heating

gov.uk/government/sta… Image

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More from @DrSimEvans

Jul 27
UK energy bills latest:

Price cap to hit >£3,200 in Oct so both contenders to be next PM say they'll do more…

Sunak would end VAT on bills (grey bit on my chart)
Truss would remove policy costs (the red bit)

Can you see the problem?

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti… Image
More in my recent thread



See also excellent thread this morning from @TorstenBell on the distributional impacts of energy bill interventions so far (and proposed)

Read 4 tweets
Jul 19
NEW

The UK government's Net-Zero Strategy breached the Climate Change Act, the High Court has ruled

I've read the full 59-page judgement so you don't have to, as well as speaking with several lawyers

THREAD on the ruling & what it means

(TL;DR new strategy by Mar 2023)

1/
The UK net-zero strategy was published in Oct 2021, setting out how govt planned to meet its legally-binding climate targets

Publishing the strategy was also a legal reqt under the Climate Change Act 2008

Our coverage at the time:

2/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
As we wrote at the time, the strategy did not quantify the impact of the plans & policies it contained

That made it impossible for parliament – or wider public – to say if strategy was ambitious enough to reach the sixth carbon budget for 2033-2037

3/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…
Read 11 tweets
Jul 17
It's the second Conservative leadership #ITVdebate tonight & I'll be watching what they say about climate and energy like a hawk

On just before the debate  – news from @metoffice

90% chance of new UK heat record
60% chance of breaching 40C

Live THREAD + couple of previews

1/
Energy bills are almost certain to feature tonight, so let's start by setting the record straight: 94% of the coming rise to £3,300 in October is due to soaring gas prices

Green levies will fall from current 5% to ~3%

2/

We may also hear talk of gas as a "transition fuel", so it's worth remembering that gas is the single-largest source of greenhouse gases in the UK

Moreover, it's only a "transition" or "bridge" away from coal – except we've already crossed that bridge

3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 16
Exceptional heat is sparking wildfires and heatwaves around the world

Here's a selection of newspaper frontpages from the last few days (ongoing thread)

1/ Spain Image
2/ Turkey Image
3/ China Image
Read 105 tweets
Jul 14
NEW

High gas prices are behind more than 90% of rising UK household energy bills

94% of the expected rise from £1,971 cap now to £3,285 in Oct is due to wholesale energy prices (& 91% since winter 2020)

Green levies will fall from 5% to 3% of bills

1/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…
The cost of buying wholesale gas & electricity will have increased from £359/yr last summer to current £1,069 & then to £2,245 in Oct

This is a giant 6-fold rise – thanks to pricey gas – from Summer 2021 to Winter 2022

(Bloomberg: "Gas soars 700%")

2/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
At the same time, "green levies" have actually been falling, because renewables are cheaper than gas

As wholesale costs soar, green levies will fall from current 5% of bills to <3% under the Winter 2022 cap

*All* govt taxes & levies, inc VAT, will make up <10%

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 13
Each coal power station requires 3,800,000 tonnes of coal per year & emits 7,500,000 tonnes of CO2.

If they last 25 years, they require 95,000,000 tonnes of coal & emit 186,000,000 tonnes of CO2.

They're not environmentally friendly.

(Unlike Sophie I'll give workings) Image
I've assumed a 1GW power plant, generating 7.5TWh at 85% load factor

EIA says avg US coal plant used 1.1lb coal per kWh in 2021 (0.51t/MWh) eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq…

EIA says avg US coal plant emitted 2.23lb CO2 per kWh in 2020 (1t/MWh)
eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq…
To generate as much electricity from onshore wind would require 2,100MW assuming 40% load factor (UK govt assumes 42% for new sites)
gov.uk/government/pub…

Arcelormittal says ~150t steel per MW so that's 320,000t steel

corporate.arcelormittal.com/media/case-stu…
Read 6 tweets

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