Thread by @MarkHertling

A strong & accurate comment by Ukraine DefMin Reznikov.

Interestingly, I read several articles in major newspapers this weekend - all written by journalist - implying "We must give UKRAINE more HIMARs."

There are reasons we have provided the limited number & type systems. 1/11

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1551545905815474176

Ukraine originally asked for MLSR. We provided HIMARS for several reasons.

The M142 HIMARS is a fast-moving wheeled vehicle that travels 60mph+ on roads, 30mph (or so) on rough terrain.

The M270 MLRS is a tracked vehicle designed to keep up w/ tanks on rough terrain. Slower. 2/

MLRS is harder to fix, has more parts. HIMARS is basically a truck with rockets.

It's also easier to train a smaller crew.

Notice: HIMARS has a rocket pod with 6 missiles...the MLRS has 2 rocket pods, 12 missiles.

HIMARS can shoot, scoot, & reload faster w/ few troops. 3/

While it's always nicer to hit 2x the amount of targets w/ the 2 rocket pod capability, the maintenance, spare parts, crew requirement, training, & pod/missile resupply are challenging...

...and the need for faster maneuver in eastern Ukraine is a HIMARS advantage. 4/

So why only 16 delivered?

Couple reasons:
1. There's not that many total in the inventory (unclassified estimates say about 500).
2. Trainup of crews take time.
3. HIMARS aren't sitting in a COSTCO...almost all are w/ Army/Marine units & are required for contingency plans. 5/

But there's another important factor most journalists don't consider: instead of focusing on HIMARS launchers, consider the missiles being shot!

What?

Yup, a pretty important factor.

Here's some back of envelope battlefield math... 6/

-16 HIMARS in Ukraine.
-Each HIMARS fires a minimum (MINIMUM!) of 2 pods/day
-Each pod has 6 missiles...12 missiles/HIMAR/Day
-12 missiles x 16 HIMARS = 192 missiles/day

In 1 month, 16 launchers will fire approx 5800 missiles & accurately hit about 5200 (90%) targets. 7/

The HIMARS missile being used by UA have a 200lb warhead, is GPS-guided, & hits what it aims at long range.

Yes, the US does has stockpiles of these precision "smart" missiles, but the manufacturer makes about 9000 per year. 8/

Smart planning consideration of our Department of Defense (& all the nations that are supplying MLRS) is this: How much risk do we take in giving UKR an exceedingly large # of our smart weapons?

And...

What if, in the near future, we face this or another enemy in a conflict? 9/

I'm 100% sure I don't have all the considerations that went into this decision making.

But I am also relatively sure those saying "Give UKR everything it wants" are also not considering several important US national security factors. 10/

Bottom line, I believe @SecDef, NATO Sec General @jensstoltenberg and NATO member states are applying prudent decision making in determining what equipment they can send Ukraine that will make a difference on the battlefield. 11/11