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Jul 26 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
The first detailed academic paper Ive seen about the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy. Summarized in one word--'crippling'. Cuts through alot of the BS that is out there about oil sales and the value of the ruble. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Here are the main points in summary. Imports collapsing and domestic production at a standstill. Russia was already an economically weak power living off selling its natural resources. Its now in terrible shape to support a long war effort.
Final summation shows why the long-war scenario is so difficult for Russia if sanctions are maintained. No path out of 'economic oblivion'

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 28
This kind of industrial production plunge shows why focussing on the income made from energy sales distorts our understanding of sanctions.
In a state to state war, the loss and expenditure of equipment is so high, that all state's need to get more and more to keep fighting--far more than they normally can imagine before the fight.
Ukraine is to a large degree getting its fighting force augmented by NATO countries, so it indeed is getting more and better equipment. Just yesterday the annoucement was given that Ukraine will be getting 100 PZhaubitze 2000s from Germany. Thats significant.
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 24
Sunday update, the shift in focus is to the west (Kherson Front) as Ukraine is preparing the ground for a counteroffensive and Russian attempts to continue to move forward in the Donbas are petering out. Ukrainian strategy, Bleed them in the Donbas, Defeat them in Kherson.
Whats happened in the Donbas in the last 3 weeks can be summed up quickly. Almost no Russian advance, a major drop in Russian ranged fire since July 9. Russian logistics seem severely degraded and if they cant find a way to get ammo in mass quantities to front line units...
Here are @TheStudyofWar maps for July 23 and July 4. Russian offensive activity directed towards three areas, the town of Siversk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk. Minimal difference. I think the Russians might have occupied a few villages.
Read 16 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 23
A few hours of the day left, FIRMS recording practically no fire in the Donbas. I think at this point we can conclude that the Ukrainians have indeed degraded Russian logistics considerably. No way they would want it to be so weak. Some cloud today, but this looks almost empty Image
very different from Kherson region, lots of fires (many of them probably fields burning) but interestingly, rather evenly placed on both sides of the line. Russians dont seem to have much of a ranged fire advantage here. Image
This has been the story of the week actually. Hardly any concentrated fire reported in the Donbas no matter what the whether, more in the Kherson area but on both sides of the line. Will try to go into what might be happening with the update tommorow morning.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 22
Wow; more than 100 high value targets taken out by Ukraine: you can see why General Milley was talking about the impact of the Ukrainians using the HIMARS and other systems so effectively. That has to be hurting the Russians badly
And the second tweet in that thread about thousands of Lts Capts and Cols being KIA. Russian Command and control must be devastated.
Talking about destroying high value targets; @IAPonomarenko in his just published @KyivIndependent article claims that in the Donbas the Russians have lost ‘the majority, if not all’ of its largest fuel and ammo depots. If true, it’s a logistics massacre. kyivindependent.com/national/why-i…
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 22
More and more claims (not verified yet) that the Ukrainians have surrounded a Russian group on the Kherson front. The Ukrainians have always considered the Kherson from the most vulnerable for the Russians, so it’s worth watching.
Ukrainian strategy for the war over the last few months might be summed up in two statements. 1) Bleed the Russians in the Donbas front 2) prepare to defeat them on the Kherson front. They’ve done the first. We will see soon on the second.
Was going to talk about this more on the Sunday update, but might be worth a discussion here quickly. Basically as ranged fire has stayed low in the Donbas over the last three weeks. It’s picked up a great deal on the Kherson front..in a special way.
Read 7 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 22
This is a really important point and highlights something we saw amongst certain WH staffers (C Hutchison) and I bet in the secret service. They had to all agree to disregard legal chain of command (presidential authority), to actually prevent a coup.
In the limousine after Trumps speech which incited the storming of the capital, there was a clear subversion of a presidential order to drive him to the capital. Basically his security detail refused to follow a presidential demand. reuters.com/world/us/trump…
Basically enough people with good sense decided to risk disregarding chain of command. Remarkable way the country had to save itself from its own commander in chief.
Read 4 tweets

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