Thread by @EnthusiastFpl

𝐏𝐑𝐄𝐌𝐈𝐔𝐌 𝐌𝐈𝐃𝐅𝐈𝐄𝐋𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐒

The premium template seems strong with >55% ownership for both Salah and Haaland. In this thread, let’s look at the prospects of Son, De Bruyne, Sterling and Bruno and see if they're worth breaking the template for.

#FPL #FPLCommunity

Also, we will look into Salah’s alleged dip in form post-AFCON. All stats were taken from @FFScout Members Area unless otherwise mentioned.

Abbreviations used:
NPxG – Non-penalty Expected Goals
xA – Expected Assists
NPG – Non-penalty Goals
A – Assists

If you would prefer to read a blog post rather than a thread, check out my article for the award-winning blog @allaboutfpl 👇
allaboutfpl.com/2022/07/premiu…

𝐅𝐈𝐗𝐓𝐔𝐑𝐄 𝐓𝐈𝐂𝐊𝐄𝐑

First up, let’s see how good the fixtures are. Here are all 20 teams ranked by the difficulty of their first eight fixtures from an attacking standpoint. Fixture difficulty ranking (FDR) is based on data from @FiveThirtyEight.

𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐃𝐎 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐍𝐔𝐌𝐁𝐄𝐑𝐒 𝐒𝐀𝐘?

Let’s have a quick glance at the #PremierLeague 2021/22 stats for these five midfielders.

𝐌𝐎𝐇𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐃 𝐒𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐇 (£𝟏𝟑.𝟎)

The undisputed king of FPL has just won his third Golden Boot (shared with Son) in five seasons and topped the assist charts, scoring the most FPL points in the process.

His NPxG+xA per 90 of 0.86 is the best among all players who played a minimum of 500 minutes last season. One thing that stands out in the above table is his massive overperformance on xA. Of course it depends on how good his teammates are at finishing the chances created by him.

It’s worth noting that Liverpool aren’t a team that scores significantly more than their NPxG, having scored 229 non-penalty goals from an NPxG of 220.77 in the last three league campaigns. So, we could expect some drop in his assists, unless there is an improvement in xA.

Salah’s dip in form post-AFCON has been a popular narrative. Is there any truth to it? On the surface, it would seem so with only 4 non-penalty goals since GW 24, while 18 players scored more in that period. Let’s have a deep dive into his numbers pre and post-AFCON.

You would notice that his numbers tell a very different story. It could be surprising that there was actually a massive upturn in his already elite underlying numbers post-AFCON. Would fatigue or lack of confidence only affect the player’s finishing, but not his ability to...

...accumulate chances or create them for his teammates? Or was it just a crazy coincidence that the goals dried up post-AFCON? The latter would make more sense. What does his finishing record look like? 135 non-pen goals from an NPxG of 124.09 in league seasons since 2014/15...

...according to @UnderstatXG suggest that he’s a good finisher, if that was ever in doubt. Having a lengthy break during the World Cup to recharge his batteries would be key in his minutes management. We might even see a return to the pre-AFCON levels of minutes/appearance.

The fixtures look favorable early on for Liverpool, with Manchester United being the only top six side they would face in the first seven GWs. And, Salah is looking like an early favorite for captaincy in GW 1 when he faces newly promoted Fulham.

Also, only he seems certain to be on penalty duties among premium midfielders. In short, it doesn’t make much sense to bet against the Egyptian king early on in my opinion.

𝐒𝐎𝐍 𝐇𝐄𝐔𝐍𝐆-𝐌𝐈𝐍 (£𝟏𝟐.𝟎)

With two back to back 225+ points seasons and now a Golden Boot under his belt, Sonny demands our attention.

His overperformance on NPxG is striking. However, a look at his finishing record and you would realize that this level of overperformance is the norm rather than an exception for him.

According to @UnderstatXG, he has scored 103 non-penalty goals from an NPxG of 73.28 in league seasons since 2014/15, an overperformance of +41%. This makes him the best finisher in the league.

Let’s also look at his numbers since Conte took charge.

No surprises here. His numbers have been even better under Conte. Hopefully he would sustain these numbers or even improve on them now that Conte has had a pre-season to work with the team.

The fixtures are fairly good early on and the South Korean presents an opportunity to break the template. Also, his fixtures rotate quite nicely with Salah’s for captaincy.

Don’t get me wrong. Haaland is a world class forward and is joining a team that scored the most goals in each of the last five seasons. However, even he might need some time to settle in.

As a Bayern fan, I remember Lewandowski, who had a more complete profile than Haaland's, taking some time to adapt to Pep’s style of play. He scored 17 league goals that season, the only time he failed to score 20+ goals since his first season in Germany.

Then there are the injury concerns with Haaland. At Dortmund, he was rushed back from injuries and reportedly needed painkillers to play at times. According to The Athletic, Pep being able to rest him if needed was key in convincing him during the negotiations.

It won't be surprising if Pep chooses to manage his load early on in order to avoid further setbacks, especially if he keeps having niggles during the pre-season.

𝐊𝐄𝐕𝐈𝐍 𝐃𝐄 𝐁𝐑𝐔𝐘𝐍𝐄 (£𝟏𝟐.𝟎)

De Bruyne had an electric second half of the season, with 8.2 points per start, the best among all players who had more than a single start in that period.

His massive overperformance on NPxG stands out, scoring more than double the amount of non-pen goals. What does his finishing record look like? According to Understat, he has scored 64 non-pen goals from an NPxG of 46.02 in league seasons since 2014/15,...

...an overperformance of +39%. This puts him close to Son in terms of finishing. Even then, we could expect a significant drop in his goal tally, unless there is an improvement in NPxG. Meanwhile, the addition of Haaland might boost his assist potential.

De Bruyne is a bonus points magnet. He accumulated 33 bonus points last season, the most by any player, despite starting only 25 games. He had a minutes per baseline BPS (Bonus Points System) of 5.7.

Among regular starters at City who are likely to get returns (goals, assists or clean sheets), Dias & Cancelo came in next with 6.3 & 6.4 respectively. This big of a gap lets the Belgian rack up bonus points even with a single attacking return & at times even without one.

The reigning champions start off the season with a good run of fixtures that rotate well with Liverpool’s for captaincy.

De Bruyne could be an alternative to Haaland for those looking to take advantage of these fixtures. The summer break and a full pre-season could do him good. Pep’s recent comments are encouraging. He said: "Last pre-season he arrived in bad conditions because of injuries...

...(after Euro). He took a long time to get his best condition but the start of this season was the opposite. We saw in sessions he’s sharp & strong & he continued with the same level as last season. It was his best season in terms of scoring goals & he’s started really well."

𝐑𝐀𝐇𝐄𝐄𝐌 𝐒𝐓𝐄𝐑𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐆 (£𝟏𝟎.𝟎)

We know what Sterling is capable of when he gets regular minutes. He had three consecutive 200+ points seasons in 2017-2020. And, now he has moved to a club where he’s expected to get those minutes.

Chelsea has created an NPxG per game of 1.65 since Tuchel took charge. This makes them the third best attack in that period. However, these numbers pale in comparison to the City juggernaut’s 2.17. Does this mean that Sterling’s per 90 numbers would likely drop at Chelsea?

Quite possible. However, we could argue that Tuchel’s style of play would probably suit Sterling more than Pep’s. Though Tuchel likes a similar positional play based football, he allows more freedom in the final third than Pep. There aren’t many better in world football than...

...Sterling when it comes to off-the-ball movement. He’s a master at accumulating high quality chances with an xG/shot (non-pen) of 0.23, the best among those who took more than 15 shots last season. This coupled with his strong 1v1 play would likely let him thrive under Tuchel.

Is he really a terrible finisher as the popular narrative suggests? According to Understat, he has scored 95 non-penalty goals from an NPxG of 101.08 in league seasons since 2014/15, an underperformance of -6%. He is just below average at finishing, but not terrible by any means.

Chelsea’s fixtures look great early on from an attacking standpoint. They face some of the leakiest defences of last season in Everton, Leeds, Leicester and Southampton and newly promoted Fulham in the first seven GWs.

Sterling could be a risky, but potentially fruitful alternative to the more expensive picks or even a cheaper third premium asset. One caveat is the lack of other viable options at that price point should he fail to deliver.

𝐁𝐑𝐔𝐍𝐎 𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐍𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐒 (£𝟏𝟎.𝟎)

Last season saw Bruno’s decline as an FPL asset, scoring just 4.29 points per start. He scored 6.77 points per start in 2020/21 and a jaw dropping 8.36 in 2019/20.

He is a wait-and-watch even with the drop in price and ten Hag at the helm. The pricing of other United assets like Sancho (£7.5) and Rashford (£6.5) makes it very hard to justify paying the extra for Bruno.

Also, the fixtures aren’t that good early on. If Ronaldo ends up leaving though, he could be back on the radar, with penalties reclaimed.

Thanks for reading. Kindly like and retweet if you found this useful. Feedback appreciated.

Good luck for the new season.

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https://twitter.com/EnthusiastFpl/status/1546483207784128513?s=20&t=zW7g8RMn1jGCgx4isp0qGA