So I did some napkin math on possible upcoming RU supply problems in Kherson.
I based the supply need on @HN_Schlottman and his post about the needs of a BTG:
I based the supply need on @HN_Schlottman and his post about the needs of a BTG:
https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1528500822442647554
Assuming we have 15 BTGs in the Kherson area, plus additional units such as army/district/division level support etc.
According to Henrys info 17 Trucks of supplies are needed for a BTG per day.
According to Henrys info 17 Trucks of supplies are needed for a BTG per day.
I'm going to assume only 10 of the 15 BTGs operate at once. Some are going to be held in reserve
That gives us 170 Trucks needed per day.
I'm going to add an additional 50% to that for the "additional units". Plus perhaps civilian, medical supplies etc.
That gives us 170 Trucks needed per day.
I'm going to add an additional 50% to that for the "additional units". Plus perhaps civilian, medical supplies etc.
Now we are up to 225 trucks per day need.
The barges we have seen have been around 60 meters, I estimate they can load 10 vehicles on one of those.
20 min to load, 20 for offload, 2x20 for crossing the river at 1-2km/h.
This gives 80 min per roundtrip.
The barges we have seen have been around 60 meters, I estimate they can load 10 vehicles on one of those.
20 min to load, 20 for offload, 2x20 for crossing the river at 1-2km/h.
This gives 80 min per roundtrip.
25.5 trips taking 1.33 hours is a total time of 34 hours or 17 hours with two barges.
This assumes everything works perfectly. But trust me, it wont.
Adding this up makes me thing they will need at least 2 locations for ferry activity and use at least 4 barges.
This assumes everything works perfectly. But trust me, it wont.
Adding this up makes me thing they will need at least 2 locations for ferry activity and use at least 4 barges.
This is where they start getting in to trouble.
One accident will halt the operation for a long time, keep in mind, we are handling fuel and ammo.
One accident will halt the operation for a long time, keep in mind, we are handling fuel and ammo.
Weather is another factor, rain will make the banks slippery, vehicles might get stuck, slip etc.
Wind will make the barges go slower and possibly hard to maneuver. They will create waves.
To avoid drones, they might want to operate at night this will increase turnaround times.
Wind will make the barges go slower and possibly hard to maneuver. They will create waves.
To avoid drones, they might want to operate at night this will increase turnaround times.
Those are all small problems compared to the AFU. To keep the barges moving, they will have to have trucks waiting to load, his will probably create queues. These are excellent targets.
Hitting a barge with HIMARS while it is half loaded with ammo will create interesting conditions for the docking location. Tons of unexploded ammo and fuel on a twisted and semi sunken barge combined with smoking drunk Russians. I'm gonna nope out of that one.
Conclusion: I think I might have lowballed the amount of supplies needed. But assume I overestimated the RU consumption and we reduce the supplies to half of what I came up with, they still have to run 2 barges for 8.5 hours per day.
This makes me think RuAF has a enormous mountain to climb. I simply do not think they will be able to sustain their troops in the Kherson region (west of Dnipro).
However, retreating poses a just as large problem if they want to keep any equipment
H/T @secretsqrl123 for ideas.
However, retreating poses a just as large problem if they want to keep any equipment
H/T @secretsqrl123 for ideas.
I did not account for the losses of the BTGs, and I'm not interested in discussing if they are operating as BTGs or not.
These barges does not look completely safe. 
Yes this photo is not from Ukraine, its just from the internet.
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