Thread by @addicted2grace

1/ Cryptocurrencies are not currencies.

The Fed doesn't print $$$

Deflation is actually a good thing

These are a few of the many topics @lamLewisU discuss in our new podcast. Here's a TL;DR thread

2/ You can find us wherever you get your podcasts. You can find this episode on Youtube here:

3/ And make sure to follow Lewis!

https://twitter.com/IamLewisU/status/1552111778838056961?s=20&t=v-_XsAZF5cLUgZDpbPn0Xg

4/ This first episode is about the purpose of the podcast. We want to cover a wide range of topics, but focus more so on the nuance and complexity between otherwise simplistic models. What you believe matters.

5/ People like @seanhannity offer their audience thought models that can start out with true premises. They take these premises and build a super simplistic model, then use this model as a worldview to apply to other ideas and problems, which can lead to wrong conclusions.

6/ Lewis and I talk about how we first met, our following of @nntaleb . Really interesting author of books like Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and Antifragile. Covid broke his mind, and his Twitter followers got to watch in real time.

https://twitter.com/Erik_Ostholm/status/1296924238486679552?s=20&t=yMiELm314-siGMAKHW71Vw

7/ Here's the thread between Taleb and @NateSilver538 that helped open my eyes to Taleb back in 2018

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1062782704159256576?s=20&t=yMiELm314-siGMAKHW71Vw

8/ Next we talk about atheism. Lewis finds atheism incredibly interesting, which helped lead to our conversation. Up until March of this year I identified as an atheist.

9/ One of the largest appeals of atheism to me was the idea that I no longer had to subscribe to ideas that I didn't understand. No more virgin birth, death and resurrection. Atheism allows you to subscribe to ideas that you understand exclusively

10/ Lewis points out that @RichardDawkins does not engage in good faith arguments in his books regarding Christianity. We also discuss Chris Hitchens, @SamHarrisOrg and @danieldennett

11/ Hitchens book "Religion Poisons Everything" was awful. We contrast that to @michaelshermer 's take on religion is more believable, the idea that religion is an evolved mode of beliefs and rules that allows it's adherents to navigate through a chaotic world with limited info

12/ At 29:50, Lewis mentions his first book which talks about some of these issues. Did you know Lewis is a published author? Check out his work!!!!

13/ We talk about this thread that Lewis engaged in.

https://twitter.com/TFADpod/status/1549894158407843840?s=20&t=v-_XsAZF5cLUgZDpbPn0Xg

14/ A sort of lazy way to engage in critiques of the Christian religion. The USA condemns murder, but sends soldiers, weapons, funds overseas to kill people. Should Americans not care about murder?

15/ I commend Lewis for his willingness to have these types of conversations. Even as someone who used to identify as an atheist, I don't know that I would have the patience to engage in these types of conversations, the r/atheism hot takes

16/ Lewis notes that he finds the nihilism, the hopelessness and meaninglessness of a naturalistic, atheistic worldview unfathomable. When I was an atheist I found this appealing. I was able to insert my own meaning into life.

17/ We'll flesh out my atheism journey in a future episode. I tease that I started in Reformed Christian circles, dated a Pentecostal in high school, got into Messianic Judaism, then atheism, now I'm back to my Reformed roots.

18/ 38:30 we start talking economics, starting with bitcoin. We talk about this article, guy uses #bitcoin to buy a pizza. The article notes that if he had saved his bitcoin instead of buying pizza, his bitcoin would have appreciated immensely. marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-…

19/ Lewis notes the ponzi-esque aspects of bitcoin, where you need to get in now and let other people get in behind you so the value of your initial investment appreciates.

20/ Lewis also says that the anonymity that bitcoin claims it provided is non-existent as well. I push back on this a bit. I work with cyber insurance where the cyber carriers use crypto to pay the hacker extortionists. Here's a good article: coalfire.com/the-coalfire-b…

21/ Crypto exchanges are antithetical to the idea of crypto. Crypto was designed to be de-centralized. Exchanges are centralized institutions. The whole Canadian Trucker crypto fiasco was exacerbated by people using exchanges instead of having their own wallets.

22/ coindesk.com/policy/2022/02…

23/ How feasible is decentralized banking? Lewis and I are skeptical. How many farmers markets exist where people go and exchange goods for cryptocurrency without any centralized financial institution in the mix?

24/ At this point we get into Federal Reserve and #USD problems. Lewis outs me as a shill for the Fed. Not going into too much detail here, I'll have to make a separate thread. But some things I note:

- The Fed does not print money

25/ - In a credit based economy, banks create money when they make loans or extend credit
- US Financial Institutions create more money than the Department of the Treasury

26/ - Non US Financial Institutions create the majority of dollars in circulation today by pledging dollars, the Global Reserve Currency
- In theory, the Fed printer go brrrrrr, dollar inflates....

27/ In reality, when global economies crumble, people scramble for dollars, dollar deflates

If you want to learn more about Eurodollars, highly recommend following:

- @JeffSnider_AIP
- @EmilKalinowski
- @SantiagoAuFund

28/ Lewis makes a compelling argument that currencies need scarcity. People have options when they use currencies in theory. They need to use a currency that's trustworthy, that isn't constantly getting throttled by money printing. We need to protect dollar confidence

29/ Right, but we must remember that QE and interest rate toggling, all major currencies are doing it too. Whatever problems the dollar has, doesn't the Euro and Yen have worse problems?

30/ I don't do a very good job, but I hint at a future conversation we'll have to have about the definition of money. @GeorgeSelgin makes a great case in this paper that the classical definition of money is lacking. alt-m.org/2021/10/27/a-t…

31/ I also point to this book, very interesting read about America and it's love/hate relationship with fiat.
thriftbooks.com/w/banks-and-po…

32/ Here Lewis makes a startling claim that he will defend the position that deflation is good, and should be the goal for a monetary policy. Prayers.

33/ Before we end, Lewis pushed me for a hot take on Biden. As a #Calvinist I concede that I have to believe that God placed Biden in office. We briefly discuss #NewAtheism and modern gender discussions. I point to this book. thriftbooks.com/w/how-christia…

34/ It's interesting that if you're a woman and you're opposed to a penis in female only spaces, you're the bigot. Lewis then cites this Chapelle skit about Transgenderism

35/ Boy, we hit Crypto, Fed, Transgenderism, #DaveChappelle , ... we're not going to last long are we.

Tune in next week where discuss the rise and fall of @nntaleb !!!! Like and subscribe.