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My #Bitcoin Forecast

🚀Bitcoin $100K within 5 years

Based on a conservative estimate of Bitcoin’s Energy Value, it is likely that $BTC will 𝟭𝟬𝗫 within the next 5 years.

A thread forecasting Bitcoin’s long-term price using Energy Value.

1/n
𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗰𝗵

Bitcoin’s Energy Value has tracked Bitcoin’s price for the last 10 years.

Let’s use it to forecast price.

There are only two varying inputs in Energy Value:
⚡️Hash Rate
⚙️Mining Hardware efficiency

We can forecast each of these to predict BTC's Price.

2/n
⚡️Hash Rate

Over the last 5yrs, Bitcoin’s HR has grown exponentially (linear on a log scale).

Assuming this relationship holds, but allowing for some market saturation, we can estimate that the HR growth rate drops from ~135% p.a. today to ~20% p.a. in 2025.

3/n
Read 15 tweets
#2020CryptoPredictions #Bitcoin adoption will accelerate as interfaces continue to make it easier for merchants to accept crypto payments. 2019 stats released recently by BitPay, a Bitcoin payment processor showed that it handled over $1 billion worth of crypto. #blockchain
#2020CryptoPredictions The Lightning Network will become a game changer. There is a good chance that the next generation of wallets and payment mechanisms will use it as the basis of operation. #Bitcoin will move rapidly from store of value to medium of exchange. #blockchain
#2020CryptoPredictions Libra might not happen. It would need to be licensed in every territory that it operates like a commercial banking system since it is is.There is much at stake for the powers that be to allow that to happen and, even if it did, it would take yrs #Bitcoin
Read 7 tweets
Venezuela y @PeterMcCormack

1. Primera persona del primer mundo bitcoiner que viene a Venezuela en los últimos tiempos. 2 días, tiempo corto, pero vino a ver con sus propios ojos.

2. Varias de las generalizaciones que ha hecho parecen ser imperfectas (resistencia a la censura)
o no completamente ciertas (por falta de pruebas empíricas y de tiempo de estancia).

3. McCormack aprovechó para ver a Guaidó; y también se fue a la marcha del Día de la Juventud del chavismo.

4. Sus conclusiones, apresuradas o no, tienen más información que
la mayoría de tuiteros internacionales y que muchos venezolanos expatriados. 2 días es tiempo insuficiente para concluir el estado de las cosas, pero te da un espectro para *opinar*.

5. Sobre el título que puso a la entrevista que nos hizo a mí y a @bitbrothersvzla para su pod..
Read 15 tweets
Fun times in macro land...

US bonds look like thy've finished their small correction and 10 year yields are now set up to fall to 1.35 to 1.40... 1/
Not sure they can break the key support on first attempt but let's see. If that support goes, then we are going to zero (yes, zero).
And Dec 2020 Eurodollars are a perfect technical set up - a wedge, a re-test and a mini wedge. Next stop 99 and higher..
Read 7 tweets
The #coronvirus poses a potential catastrophic disaster to the global economy and financial infrastructure. On top of the sick and dying, the ensuing panic will cripple vital economic activity that feeds and provides services to the larger public. #thread
When this starts to happen, extreme poverty will set in larger groups of people all over the world. Such a scenario would be unprecedented. Our energy grids will crash and we will all be pushed into living conditions that would resemble maybe a century ago.
I mention this to highlight the need for self-sustaining #renewableenergy that can be maintained by minimum human interaction. Things like solar energy takes minimal maintenance and manning to run. While it's clean and renewable, it is also an automation of how we produce energy.
Read 9 tweets
You’ve asked, we’ve delivered. You can now pay for your Real Vision subscription with Bitcoin. $BTC #Bitcoin 1/
All you have to do is send 0.0175 BTC to our wallet at 1AhaTMvs57NZmFCEsGRWLwGJ6UstnEGPix or use the QR code and send your transaction # number to accounts@realvision.com and we’ll set you up. 2/
We are working on an automated solution but this should get you across the line easily for now so you dont miss out on the amazing content @realvision
Read 3 tweets
"To be sovereign, a cryptonetwork must be able to operate and create, execute and modify its internal rules according to its own governance process." -@jmonegro placeholder.vc/blog/2019/7/31…
"To get there, it has to be sufficiently decentralized across four dimensions: supply, demand, governance and capital market infrastructure." -@jmonegro placeholder.vc/blog/2019/7/31…
"While #Bitcoin today has an advantage in terms of scale across the supply, demand and investor sides of the equation, @decredproject is better set up for long-term sovereignty thanks to its decentralized governance principles." -@jmonegro placeholder.vc/blog/2019/7/31…
Read 3 tweets
0/Cash is king for those who are kings of cash. For the rest, cash is morning frost evaporating under inflation’s steady warm glare. Year after year banks & the state work tirelessly to debase money through inflationary schemes. A mega thread.

Fiat Inflation vs Bitcoin Deflation
1/Central bank obsession with inflation not only stems from an inherent bias to stimulate the economy but also from a deep fear of a deflationary economic environment and loss of mandate.
2/According to CBs this would be an unmitigated disaster. So much so that forcing rates down below zero (in the Eurozone) is seen a better solution than allowing markets to act organically.
Read 29 tweets
This crypto bull market will only be moderately more discerning than the last.
Expect #bitcoin to surpass previous ATHs, and many of the riskier, higher-beta assets to outperform $BTC when all is said and done in this bull market.
I wish I could say the crap won't rally, but it will, with many examples showing life already.

Discernment will be a slow burn, requiring a combination of valuation consensus, standardization, and if we don't get it together ourselves, regulation.
Read 3 tweets
1/ #Bitcoin Full Node for Beginners

I spent a few days going down the full node rabbit hole

Here's what I learned and how I turned my @CasaHODL into a @mynodebtc

Thread 👇👇👇
2/ Why run a full node?

1) It's a vote for your monetary asset of choice, I want to subscribe to these rules
2) Rely less on 3rd party services
3) Enhance your privacy
4) Learn the inner workings of the network
3/ Background:

I'm not super technical but have built websites and ran CMS systems in the past. Turns out with basic skills it's very possible to run a node! What you need some basic knowledge about:

1) Networking
2) Hardware
3) Bitcoin protocol
Read 10 tweets
🚨@stratisplatform #GlobalCryptoNetwork - January 2020🚨

Total nodes: 5,655
New nodes: 961
New: Antarctica 🇦🇶
Countries: 84

If your country is not a shade of blue on this map, your country is missing the 4th Industrial Revolution!
What $STRAT versions are people running:
2.0.0.3 - 1519 (27%)
3.0.5.0 - 1416 (25%)
3.0.4.0 - 849 (15%)
2.0.0.5 - 675 (12%)
3.0.3.0 - 456 (8%)

Core 2.0 wallet will be release for community testing soon! Please help test and make it more secure. It will use 3.0.6.0 or 3.0.7.0.
Europe continue it’s dominance.
- I suspect Germany will release a CBDC in 2020.
- UK will release a CBDC or stable coin by Q4 2020 as well!
- Croatia and Austria have been growing extensive since November.
- Russia will dominate.
- Luxembourg will double in size next month.
Read 14 tweets
1/ Read through the recently released 2020 Edelman Trust Barometer this weekend, which inadvertently makes a strong case for why a decentralized state free money, such as #Bitcoin, may continue to take root in the minds & wallets of the world’s populations.

Time for a Thread:
2/ Despite a strong global economy and near full employment, the majority of respondents in developed markets surveyed by Edelman do not believe they will be better off economically in 5 years’ time:
3/ Predictably, the study reveals global distrust of major institutions climbing to new highs. More so than any other institution, the Government is perceived as the least fair, with 57% of the world’s population asserting it only serves the interests of the few
Read 72 tweets
LONG READS SUNDAY #82

5 themes that defined the week:

The sociological impact of Coronavirus
Crypto VC and M&A
$1B locked in DeFi
The Fed joins the game of coins
@HesterPeirce proposes safe harbor

Plus, why psychological barriers like $10k #BTC matter lrs.substack.com/p/long-reads-s…
@HesterPeirce A few of my favorite threads:

@Melt_Dem on central bank digital currencies
@brian_armstrong on what happens when payments become as cheap and ubiquitous as messaging
Read 5 tweets
The #crypto bull is here.
People invest in hyped protocols, smart investors invest in promising tech, network effect, and even rumors.
I will give you my POV on #Bitcoin, on #Ethereum, #Tron and also on #IOTA
Share this with newcomers, protect future investors.
The most important rules before you invest:
-NEVER invest money that you can't afford to lose.
-NEVER participate in signal groups or pump and dump groups
-NEVER trust a stranger, don't send him money
-only trade on reputable exchanges, don't do personal trades in forums.
-You should go to (for example) Kraken, Coinbase, Binance, Bitpanda, Shapeshift, Gemini.
Create an account, verify yourself.
Only trade there and secure the account with 2FA and at best with a separate phone. Don't share your email or number anywhere!
Read 24 tweets
I needed urgent money today so placed a withdrawal via @bitdroplet by closing one of my goal and i got my 9000 inr in bank account within 12 minutes, So in 2 months I made 24.37% gains from #bitcoin #sip

Best and fastest fiat withdrawal experience from @bitdroplet @bitbns
First screenshot is of my portfolio goals before closing and second one is when I closed it today, 24.37% gains by doing plain #dca #sip in @bitcoin from @bitdroplet #bitbns #bitdroplet

Better gains as compared to #mutualfunds, #savingaccount #fixeddeposit and other #investment
Read 3 tweets
1/4 Bitcoin represents a paradigm shift on so many levels. Its ‘unconfiscatability’ is one of them. Prior to it, power could always be used to take wealth, and as a result, power was required to protect wealth and create order (manifesting many societal institutions, such as law)
2/4 Such a dynamic makes abuses and conflict inevitable (power corrupts)—and true freedom impossible. What is the ‘ordering principle’ in a bitcoin paradigm, where power cannot be used to steal wealth?
3/4 Harmony, via aligned incentives, inspired by the knowledge that *now* cooperation, not power, is the most efficient means of obtaining wealth. During the transition, as the old system fails, wealth will flow from assets in the old paradigm (confiscatable)..
Read 5 tweets
In the next four years #bitcoin will become the scarcest commodity in the universe AND it's native to the internet.

It's OK to not understand why this is the most interesting thing in the world, but don't complain later that no-one told you.
2/ Things that got put on the internet and are now basically redundant in their original form...

Letters
Radio
Photo Albums
Movies
TV
Music
Maps
Calendars
Weather forecasts
Shops
News
Encyclopedias
Phonecalls
Pornography
3/
Personal training
Taxis
Hotels
Food
Recruitment
Science
Education
Human interaction
Social clubs
Friends ;)
Banks
Money #Bitcoin
Read 4 tweets
1/ If #CoronaVirus was a front in a Currency War...
-China is responsible for a significant amount of the global supply chain.
-China already restricting shipments & availability of goods.
-USA allegedly now energy independent.
-China controls significant gold & lithium reserves.
2/ -China is a net importer of oil & gas
-China has been pumping their stock market.
-USA is also pumping their stock market.
-China probably survives #nCoV19 crisis due to massive manufacturing infrastructure.
-USA probably hurts more due to lack of access to China goods.
3/ -Chinese currency might possibly hyperinflate, just like how they misreport the #2019nCoV cases, they have been printing money massively internally & reporting false numbers to the world.
-USD probably survives as world reserve...
-Global depression more likely now than 2019
Read 7 tweets
In May 2020, #Bitcoin will experience its third “Halving.” Bitcoin is a digital asset with a fixed & predictable supply, unlike dollars. Bitcoin is designed to be scarce, like gold. Here’s what that means and why it matters in historical context: blog.coinbase.com/digital-gold-s…
Until 1971, money was directly pegged to gold. As gold is scarce, governments can’t simply produce more for political goals. So the gold standard was broken, the dollar’s value has declined, and gold has risen from a fixed $35/oz to over $1500/oz today.
Gold has been a store of value primarily because of its scarcity. While gold is shiny and can be useful in electronics, so are other metals, like copper. Yet copper is only a fraction of the value of gold. There is an inverse relationship between scarcity and commodity value.
Read 16 tweets
What does Bitcoin have to do with climate change?

As #Bitcoin nears $10,000, treat yourself to a deep dive into some of the further reaching implications of BTC.

Friday Thread 🚀
Money used to have intrinsic value. It either was, or was backed by, gold.

You could go to a bank and exchange your notes for their equivalent in gold.
Throughout the 20th century, the biggest economies unpegged their currencies from gold.

Since then, governments have had complete control of the money supply.

Now our currencies float freely in value, fluctuating against one another.

This is called fiat money.
Read 19 tweets
New #Qanon drop 3836: Q points out that #Iran, #Russia, #Ukraine and #Obama admin we’re all selling nuclear material to eachother brokered by corrupt US politicians. They were trading money on an off the grid financial network. My first thought goes to #Bitcoin. #China #1 mining
I go into some #DeepState ties and #China BTC farming here. Did you guys know the #FBI in the top 3 in total BTC ownership in the world? Read this thread.
Oops sorry, they are #4
Read 3 tweets
Something I've noticed about #Bitcoin

1. Use a Renko chart—H4, ATR(14)—to find key HTF S/R levels. Look for intersecting areas of price where bricks cleanly line up with each other or where wicks of bricks bounce off/reject at specific levels (learn it here: @ColdBloodShill).
2. Try to find a LTF setup that lets you trade from one HTF S/R level to another one.

2a. Power of Three setup (learn it here: @RektProof)
2b. Easy In, Easy Out setup (learn it here: @_SMFX_ )
Read 7 tweets
1/ A while back I was chatting with someone on here about how it is only a matter of time before people get sick of data leaks at centralized services like Google Cloud or Dropbox and how people will switch to trustless protocols.

2/ Just a few days later there were news about a new data leak at Google Photos, so I decided to write a thread about how the #bitcoin protocol and layer 2 solutions can fix this problem.

digitaltrends.com/mobile/google-…
3/ There are so many innovations happening in #bitcoin it is hard to keep track, or even imagine the possibilities. The one I will be focusing today is the Lightning Network and some applications that can be build on top.

medium.com/digitalassetre…
Read 13 tweets
Considering all that's going on the world as a result of the knock on effects from slowing growth & the corona virus...
I'm surprised I haven't heard more about the effects on #Bitcoin other than idea it would push Bitcoin higher as as result of flight to safety & store of value.
But was talking with my buddy @brucedkleinman and as a result can't help but wonder...isn't there a lot more to this story?

Are there only POSITIVE knock on effects?

No potential NEGATIVE knock on effects?
I think this report is something to think about...

research.tokenanalyst.io/the-state-of-b…
Read 13 tweets

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